Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 20th November – 26th November 2020

The Islamic State provinces in East and Central Africa that are ISCAP in Mozambique and Democratic Republic of Congo and Abnaa Ul Calipha in Somalia have exhibited a lull in activities in the herein referenced week. While that is just the observables for the week the groups have displayed their capabilities and especially in the previous week where the groups in Mozambique and DRC conducted large-scale attacks both in terms of geographical reach and high-causality-attacks.

The week has also been marked by increased military and CT operations that can be credited for the down surge in attacks as compared to previous weeks. The militaries in both countries as well as their allies have tightened the noose on their operations that has led to tactical withdrawals as well as a pause in attacks. It is also evident that both groups have been seeking to capture more territory with Muidumbe in Mozambique and Irumu and the Rwenzori sector in DRC experiencing a growing presence of insurgents.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (20^th November – 26^th November)

DRC

• 19^th November- 3 people were kidnapped and 1 seriously injured in Mulanga village in Irumu territory in Ituri province where the residents live in fear due to an increased ISCAP presence and recurring incursions.
• 25^th November– 2 Congolese soldiers killed and two others injured in Kyavikere locality in Rwenzori sector, North Kivu province.

Mozambique

• 23^rd November- 3 people killed and 2 abducted in an ISCAP attack in Quifuque Island in Palma District. intelligence indicates that the insurgents were wearing military uniforms.
• 26^th November- insurgents reenter Muidumbe and appear to have the target of recapturing the district despite heavy military, police, and DAG paramilitary group’s presence.

Observations and Insights

In Mozambique, the police alongside their contract DAG backup received reinforcement in Muidumbe in the form of at least 6 armored personnel vehicles, 2 choppers which triggered a tactical withdrawal by the ISCAP insurgents. The group had captured at least twelve villages in the district and had killed at least 50 people brutally during the occupation. Joint CT operations between police and DAG were conducted against ISCAP terrorists between 20^th-21^st November between Namacande and Mueda where more bodies were discovered. As per the ISCAP MO, homes, government buildings, and a catholic church were destroyed and the carnage was extensive across the twelve villages with the exact extent of the damage yet to be accurately reported.

Persistent corruption in the Mozambican military has become widespread with accusations level against them hindering them from taking point in the recovery of Muidumbe despite having a major military base in Mueda. Local militias which have been very pivotal in fighting ISCAP, have accused the military of looting property in the operations, harassing residents as well as passing intelligence to the terrorists in exchange for monetary compensation. Such practices have not only put the militants ahead of the COIN efforts but also given them confidence in their operation as they tend to be a few steps ahead of the government intervention team.

Mozambique is also facing growing humanitarian and human rights crises that have seen the number of people dying from cholera and other sanitation disease increasing despite the government raising the 2021 budget to $129 million from $75 million in 2020 to support the increasing number of refugees in the various districts of Cabo Delgado. Additionally, due to the dire conditions of the affected people, girls as young as eleven are being either into early marriages or taking up parental responsibilities. Intelligence indicates that the young girls are sold off to wealthier older men to facilitate resources to move from the conflict-ridden region not to mention the growing number of young girls being kidnapped by ISCAP and taken as jihadi brides or caretakers in the growing terror camps.

Tanzania and Mozambique entered into an agreement that would allow joint forces to fight the growing insurgency in the Mozambican border province of Cabo Delgado. The MOU was signed by their respective police chiefs during a meeting in Mtwara in Tanzania which was recently attacked alongside several other border villages. The police chiefs announced that the two countries would engage in joint operations and exchange information on happenings on either side of the border seeing as the terror organization has roots, recruits, fighters, and sympathizers in both countries. Additionally, as part of the deal, over 500 suspected militants arrested in Tanzania will be extradited to Mozambique. The joint collaboration is a welcome COIN strategy as it will aid in the fortification of the porous Rovuma border that has been identified as an entry point for foreign fighters seeking to join ISCAP in Mozambique. The MOU will allow for both nations to conduct CT operations against the group from both sides of the border and as such the first steps in defeating the 3-year-old insurgency in Cabo Delgado.

In DRC, fear among the residents of Irumu territory in Ituri province is at an all-time high as residents lament the growing number of ADF terrorists active in the villages. Recurring incursions especially in Banyali-Tchabi chiefdom has prevented residents from accessing their fields, looting of property including livestock and valuables. The absence of the military and peacekeepers offers suitable and exploitable conditions for the group to establish camps and conduct attacks. Additionally, other suspicious movements of ISCAP Jihadists have been reported in the Semuliki River valley for some time. ISCAP seems to have mastered all the techniques of the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) and as such making them elusive always a step ahead of the military. Thus, the group just like its ISCAP counterpart in Mozambique has been expanding its territory and taking advantage of the lack of heavy and adequate military presence in the hot zones.

Military intelligence in Beni has revealed that their fighter planes will crisscross the city and the territory of Beni in North Kivu to conduct patrols against ADF combatants as of November 26^th. The aerial support is a welcome addition in the fight against ISCAP and further offers support to the ground troops who have been intensifying their operations especially in Beni-Mbau and Rwenzori sectors which have been a theatre for meaningless attacks on innocent civilians.