Midweek Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of October 16th – October 20th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa Region

The Al-Qaeda aligned Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) operating in East Africa has concentrated it attacks in it home-base of Somalia and in Kenya’s northeastern prefectures.

Al-Shabaab has claimed a dozen attacks with notable success ratios. The Al-Qaeda branch through its pro-websites and media has claimed responsibility of these raids against government officials, SNA, AMISOM and other facilities though their fatality figures are exaggerated as warfare strategy by the militant group.

In the past five days, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least 1 2attacks in Somalia. In the neighboring country; Kenya, Al-Shabaab has recorded at least one attack on Patrol team in Mandera NEP Kenya.

Recently Claimed Attacks (October 16^th – October 20^th)

• On October 16^th, Mohamud Osman, chairman of the Puntland Court of Appeal, survived an assassination attempt following an explosion in north Galkayo, Mudug region of Somalia. Al Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack Somalia.
• On October 17^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack in the vicinity of Bardheere town, Gedo region of Somalia against an AMISOM base operated by Ethiopian troops. Several militants were wounded in the gun battle as the attack was successfully repulsed.
• On October 17^th, Al-Shabaab attempted raid on AMISOM base in Lower Juba successfully thwarted. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab attempted to attack Taabta Forward Operating Base near Dhobley, AMISOM’s Sector II headquarters, but were repelled. No casualties were reported.
• On October 18^th, At least four Somali National Army (SNA) were killed in an explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab between El-Baraf and Biyo Adde, Middle Shabelle. Initial reports indicate that troops were traveling from Jalalaqsi to Mogadishu when their vehicle ran over an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) leading to massive destruction. Several other soldiers in the convoy were severely wounded.
• On October 18^th, Dozens of Al-Shabaab killed in a botched attack on SNA facility in central Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab fighters ambushed SNA troops near Bulo-burde in Hiran, central Somalia, triggering a close quarter battle where 24 militants were killed and attack botched.
• On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Jubalanad Security Forces’ (JSF) base in Bar-Sanguuni, on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba using heavy artillery. Three soldiers wounded.
• On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed gun raid on AMISOM troops in Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab fighters targeted Burundian troops who on patrol routine where two soldiers were critically wounded.
• On October 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Kenya Patrol Team in Mandera NEP, Kenya. The militant group claimed to have ambushed the patrol troops in Lafey vicinity of Mandera. Reports indicate that the troops responded with gunfire wounding a number of militants who fled towards the Somalia.
• On October 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed grenade attack followed with gun battle on AMISOM troops in the outskirts of Dinsor town, southwestern Bay region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate raided a military base operated by Ethiopian troops and that six Ethiopian troops were killed and six others wounded in the afternoon attack.
• On October 20^th, a car bomb exploded on the outskirts of Awdheegle village in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia killing one   and injuring two government soldiers.
• On October 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated an intelligence officer identified as Abdullahi Mohamed Ishaq in the vicinity of Wadajir district of Mogadishu.
• On October 20^th, Al-Shabaab fighters last night launched a major attack on AMISOM’s Ethiopian military base in Burdhubo district in Gedo region. The attack on a base near the Burdhubo bridge caused casualties.
• On October 20^th, A landmine blast claimed by Al-Shabaab killed at least 2 people and injured several others on Tuesday in Mogadishu. The explosion targeted Director-General of Immigration and Naturalization Directorate Mohamed Aden Koofi in KM 4 near hotel Afrik in the capital. The director-general escaped unscathed.

Observations & Insights

Al-Shabaab continue to spike up attacks from across the regions of Somalia. The persistent theaters of operations remain in central and southern Somalia. Its notable, Al-Shabaab activity in Somalia are not reducing but are on a steady rise.

Bardheere district is one of the districts in Gedo region under the control of the Ethiopian forces and is often the target of attacks by Al-Shabaab Islamist fighters.

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab is keen on attacking SNA and AMISOM military bases in the reviewed regions of Somalia. Though most of these attacks have been repulsed, some recording zero casualties, they are relevant as they stamp Al-Shabaab resilience and capabilities of storming on hard targets persistently.

Though CT and COIN actors have also increased pressure on the militant group, the Somali National Army (SNA) has not been able to hold the terrain captured from al Shabaab in joint operations with African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces completely, thus these regions remain fluid.

Though Kenya’s NEP region has witnessed calmness for several months, its notable of the group’s consistent intent to conduct attacks in these areas neighboring Somalia. In a number of occasions, Al-Shabaab’s movements in northeastern prefectures have been reported especially in vicinities with water points. It’s possible the militants could establish makeshift camps at close proximities with water-wells and thus, surveillance teams to remain vigilant.

Conclusion

The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen continually has demonstrated its capability to adapt and deploy different attack types successfully.  The ability to plan targeted assassinations, IED, car bombs attacks on security checkpoints, mortar shelling and ambush raids on military bases coupled with planning capabilities, factoring in geography, time, and consistency as aspects of warfare. These are some of the indicators of group’s flexibility in terms military and intelligence perspective and wake-up call to relevant counterterrorism assets to come up with an urgent counter-strategy to avert the already budding surge in Kenya and Somalia, the two East African countries that are direct targets of the Harakat al Shabaab Mujahideen (HSM).