Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of October 9th – October 16th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM), commonly known as Al-Shabaab an affiliate of Al-Qaeda operating in East Africa region continue to record increased successful attacks from across regions of Somalia and its neighbor Kenya.

The militant group deeply has entrenched its operations in central and southern Somalia with an insurgency that has targeted Somali security forces, foreign troops and Somali citizenry. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them.

In the past one week, Al-Shabaab has upscaled its attacks in Somalia recording more than twenty attacks and recording all recorded in the Horn of Africa nation. Despite no attack has been reported in Kenya, which is also a direct target of Al-Shabaab, the country’s CT assets should remain vigilant now that the country is opening up after easing restrictions on Coronavirus, meaning more targets for Al-Shabaab becoming available.

Increased militant’s activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters especially in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. Bay and Hiiran have become persistent regions of Somalia targeted by Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab is taking advantage of thicket vegetations and geography of these regions to stage guerilla ambush and IEDs along the major routes used by both local and foreign troops. Targeted assassinations and suicide missions steadily resuming in Somalia regions.

In the past five days, the Horn of nation of Somalia has witnessed at least eight attacks from Al-Shabaab. The Islamist militant group is seen to be bent on thwarting the forthcoming elections in the Horn of Africa country.

Recently Claimed Attacks (October 9^th – October 16^th)

• On October 10^th, Dozens of Al-Shabaab militants attacked a Somali police station in Jalalaqsi town in the south-central Hiran province of Somalia. The attack was however repulsed by the officers who were manning the town and the station with two militants being killed while several others sustained injuries in the increasing wave of violence instigated by the Islamist militants.
• On October 10^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have shot dead an intelligence officer in Galkayo town, the regional capital of Mudug region in central Somalia.
• On October 11^th, Mortar rounds target Ethiopia military base at Qasahdhere airport in Somalia’s Bay region last night. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On October 11^th, in another raid, the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 2 AMISOM bomb disposal experts from Ugandan troops near Marka town in Lower Shabelle region.
• On October 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed six SNA soldiers and injuring others in armed assault on their base in Beledweyne, Hiran region of Somalia.

• On October 11^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an attack on Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) on Kudhaa Island of Lower Juba. No casualties were reported.
• On October 12^th, Al-Shabaab claim attack on Mogadishu’s Bakara market. Initial reports indicate that at least two Somali police officers were killed and two others wounded in the gun raid.
• On October 12^th, Al-Shabaab’s Islamic Court sentenced Abdiweli Omar Abdi, a member of SNA to death by firing squad. The incident took place in a public square in Booco area in Halgan, Hiran region of Somalia and was attended by a large number of people who came to watch the execution.
• On October 13^th, Al-Shabaab claim shooting dead a member of Jubaland administration identified as Adan Kali in Daynile district of Mogadishu.
• On October 13^th, At least two people killed as suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen opened fire on a civilian minibus in north of the capital Mogadishu.
• On October 13^th, Al-Shabaab ambushed on Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) patrol in general Yoontooy area, in the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba. At least one soldier killed and three others wounded.
• On October 13^th, Al-Shabaab targeted AMISOM and SNA troops Janale, Awdheengle and the outskirts of Barawe, all localities in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Casualties reported.
• On October 13^th, the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked SNA troops’ operating base in Qansadheere district of Bay region, southwestern Somalia. No casualties reported as the attack was successfully thwarted.
• On October 14^th, Al-Shabaab militants targeted Ugandan troops in Somalia under the banner of AMISOM. Initial reports indicate that the Islamists militants’ IEDs targeted the troops’ convoy on the road connecting Shalaambood and Bula Mareer in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Three troops injured.
• On October 14^th, Al-Shabaab target a security checkpoint in Balad, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that two police officers were killed in the ambush attack. The militants claimed responsibility of the attack and added that besides killing two officers, the fighters seized two of their AK47 rifles.
• On October 14^th, A major Al-Shabaab ambush attack on a small patrol team reported in Afgooye town, Lower Shabelle, 30 Km South of the capital Mogadishu.  Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility saying it fighters killed at least 17 SNA soldiers including a commander named Major Abdulle Ali Mire and burnt several military vehicles.
• On October 15^th, Al-Shabaab militants briefly capture several villages including Tuula Barqadle and Bula Haji, in the outskirt of Dhusamareeb town, Galgaduud region in central Somalia. Local reports indicate heavily armed militants lectured residents in the villages which are between Guriel and Dhusamareeb towns before withdrawing.
• On October 15^th, suspected Al-Shabaab militants attack on Haanta area, outside Afgooye, Lower Shabelle region, close from where the militants ambushed SNA soldiers a day ago.
• On October 15^th, Hoosingow district commissioner survives assassination attempt. Initial reports from Lower Juba indicate that the militants attacked his residence. Three of his bodyguards sustained gun wounds.
• On October 16^th, two simultaneous roadside bomb blasts hit Somali and AMISOM military convoy travelling between Buloburde and Jalalaqsi towns in Somalia’s Hiran region. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility saying their fighters killed 7 Somali soldiers, wounded 4 AMISOM troops from Djibouti.

Assessment/Observations

Al-Shabaab remains the primary direct threat to peace and security of East Africa, particularly the Horn of Africa, Somalia that has battled with the insurgency for more than a decade. The uptick in the group’s activity reveals that the region has become a soft flank for terrorist activity in Africa. Though most of the group’s attacks are low-scale raids, they are significant to the group’s survival and relevance.

It’s more of repeat attacks in Somalia. The Islamist Al-Shabaab continue to target SNA and AMISOM troops in their bases and convoys especially in the rural areas and small towns in the southern and central parts of the country.

Notable, central and southern regions of Somalia have been persistent theaters of confrontations between Al-Shabaab and coalition forces. The militants continue to stage ambush attacks on military bases and their convoys, taking advantage of thick vegetation to lay IEDs on MSRs which have also become a frequent norm. However, targeted killings have become part of the group’s modus operandi.

In the past one week, Al-Shabaab has staged more ambush attacks as compared to use of IEDs, landmines and car bombs as their preferred attack types. Apart the previous trends where the group concentrated attacks in the capital Mogadishu and its environs, the group has boosted its presence in regions where geography and economic activities favors its operations and hence persistently fighting to maintain control. Al-Shabaab main operational areas remains in Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions, Hiran, Middle Shabelle, Mogadishu and Banadir districts. The group also conduct sporadic attacks in Mudug and Galgaduud regions and also in northern part of Somalia.

Somalia’s Islamist militant group, Al-Shabaab, has often defied its challengers’ claims that it is in decline. In recent months, the movement has suffered a number of notable setbacks, including territorial losses, high-ranking commanders killed besides defections. The Somali Federal Government Forces (SNA) and its internal and all its coalition foreign allies need to be clear-sighted on what they can do to stop another Al-Shabaab continued surge.

Insights & Conclusion

Al-Shabaab has surged attacks targeting foreign forces in the Horn of Africa. Despite regional and international efforts to counter Al-Shabaab in recent years, there are some challenges that prevent the elimination of the group or curbing its activity and strike capabilities. Concerted COIN efforts have significantly stemmed group’s activity in the region; however, the group remains active especially in Somalia’s theater controlling almost a fifth of Somali territory.

Security analysts at Strategic Intelligence (SI) warn that the forthcoming Somalia vote is likely to take place against the backdrop of renewed insecurity. The militant’s zeal and resurgence has been recorded despite the challenge of the Coronavirus; the group has been able to regroup as witnessed in their daily attacks relentlessly.

The recorded attacks all in various regions of Somalia has seen civilians and military officers among the casualties. The upsurge in militant’s brutal violence comes despite ongoing airstrikes by the US military on the group and concerted COIN operations by local and coalition forces in Somalia.

The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Al-Shabaab continue to demonstrate its capability to adapt and deploy different attack types successfully.  The ability to plan targeted assassinations, mount improvised explosives attacks on checkpoints, mortar shelling and ambush raids on military bases coupled with capabilities to implement such plans besides employ geography, time, and consistency as aspects of warfare are indicators of group’s flexibility in terms military and intelligence perspective.

Al-Shabaab will likely remain a formidable force inside Somalia and a menace outside it. The militant group has many times proven adaptable, slipping away as dragnets close in. East African countries need to be equally quick come-up with a fine-tuning security measures while crafting political and economic policies that weaken militancy’s allure. The reviewed indicators should serve as a wakeup call to relevant CT and COIN actors in the region to come up with urgent counter-strategies to avert the already budding surge of the militant activity in the region as elaborately mapped.