Midweek East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of September 25th – September 29th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continues to mount attacks in East Africa region. The Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted the Horn of Africa, Somalia with those attacks. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries of the Horn of Africa and more so to regional forces combating them particularly at a time the country is battling in containing the global coronavirus pandemic.

In the past couple of weeks increased militant’s activities have been reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia. The attacks trend /pattern shows that the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions of Somalia targeting local and foreign troops. However, civilians have indiscriminately been caught up in the enemy attacks.

In the last five days, the Islamist militant group has claimed at least 10 attacks from across the regions of Somalia. No major terror event has been reported in Kenya, which is also a target of Al-Shabaab, though Kenyan counterterrorism assets urged to maintain vigilance especially in upper and lower NEP counties where militants’ movements and sightings have been reported in a number of times.      

Recently Claimed Attacks (September 25^th – September 29^th)

• On September 25^th, Al-Shabaab’s Islamic court sentenced two to death over spying claims. The two were executed publicly by group’s firing squad in Hiran region of Somalia. One identified as Ahmed Mohamed Abirkar 33, was accused of spying for foreign troops and the second identified as Abbas Mohamed Osman was accused of spying on behalf of HirShabelle administration intelligence unit in Beledweyne.
• On September 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed storming a military base in Dhusamareb. The militants using artillery launched several mortar shells on AMISOM military base operated by Djiboutian troops in Dhusamareb, the capita, of Galgaduud. Details on casualties not ascertained.
• On September 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked a military base outside the port city of Kismayo. Initial reports indicate that, Al-Shabaab fighters in a series of grenade attacks targeted Jubaland Security Forces (JSF) military base in Bar-Sanguni on the outskirts of Kismayo, the capital of Lower Juba. The militants also claimed to have staged similar attacks in Qamqam area in the vicinity of Kismayo targeting JSF patrol teams.
• On September 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed multiple attacks targeting security officers and outposts in Howlwadag district of Mogadishu. A security officer identified as Barre serving with SNA was assassinated. In a separate raid carried out on SNA military base in Yaqshid district of Mogadishu from different directions, casualties were reported.
• On September 26^th, Al-Shabaab claimed credit of killing security forces in Benadir, Mogadishu’s neighborhood. Preliminary reports indicate that a police officer and a Danab officer were shot dead in targeted killing.
• On September 26^th, An AMISOM soldier was killed in a blast in Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that a landmine blast targeted AMISOM troops. A Burundian soldier was killed in the roadside blast in the town of Burane, on the outskirts of Balad.
• On September 27^th, Al-Shabaab through its media claimed to have carried out several attacks on AMISOM military bases in Lower Shabelle, southern Somalia. The military claimed to have attacked military bases in Marka, Buufow, Lambar 60, Janale and Bula Mareer in multiple raids.
• On September 28^th, Al-Shabaab clash with UPDF troops operating under AMISOM banner in Lower Shabelle. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab attempted to attack Ugandan military base in Ambareeso on the outskirts of Barawe with artillery shelling and indiscriminate gunfire. Reports indicate the attack was successfully foiled.
• On September 28^th, Al-Shabaab Islamic court sentenced a 44-year-old Hassan Aden Ali to death over murder claims. The accused was executed in a public square in El-Ali district, Hiran region of Somalia.
• On September 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of killing a senior Somalia military official in Beled Hawo district of Gedo region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that the armed Shabaab fighters stormed the residence of the military official identified as Diine Barre Ubow and assassinated him before fleeing with some small weapons.

Most of Somalia’s regions remains fluid in the sense that, they are captured by joint counterterrorism assets while the militants in the same zeal fight persistently to regain control and vice-versa. Al-Shabaab militant group typically leaves an area ahead of many offensives targeting their bases and later comes back and recaptures the same territories. Additionally, Somali security forces have also been unable to maintain control of these territories, bringing into question of SNA preparedness to take over the mantle of Somalia’s security in the event foreign troops exits Somalia.

The use of landmines, roadside IEDs, RCIEDs and VBIEDs remains preferred attack types by the Islamists Al-Shabaab. However, guerilla ambushes targeting both local and foreign troops in Somalia are on the rise. The militants have increased guerilla ambush attacks on troop’s convoys as well as their military bases notably in southern Somalia’s, Lower Shabelle and Lower Juba recording repeat attacks.

Targeted killings and executions of alleged spies and their collaborators continue to be witnessed in Somalia. The assassinations and executions are strategically conducted in a calculated mov aimed at instilling fear amongst the locals, subsequently to desist from collaborating with local and foreign troops in Somalia regions. Locals usually contribute information/intelligence (HUMINT) that at times CT/COIN actor relies on in the war against the Islamist militants.

Counterterrorism assets also continue to mount pressure on Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab in southern Somalia. However, the joint military operations have not completely degraded Al-Shabaab militants who continue to persistently target military bases and police checkpoints besides attacking senior government officials and civilians linked to the government. But in the process, several innocent civilians have often been killed by the Islamist militants.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge.  The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors not to relent on mounting concerted military pressure on the Islamists groups, to disrupt any chance they may get, citing the forthcoming elections in the Horn of Africa country.