Midweek East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of August 14th – August 18th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continue to stage attacks in the East African nation of Somalia and her neighbor Kenya. Its notable that target is countries become elusive citing coronavirus protocols advocating against large gathering. That notwithstanding, Al-Shabaab militants are still conducting attacks especially on hard targets though soft targets also have suffered casualties from crossfire.

Though the Somali armed group Al-Shabaab has lost key towns in central and southern regions to the country’s army forces and African Union Forces (AMISOM), they still hold large swathes in the region where they continue to attacks targeting the coalition forces’ bases and convoys.

In about five days, the Al-Qaeda aligned Islamists Al-Shabaab have claimed at least ten attacks all in the horn of African nation, Somalia as recorded below. Its notable of militant’s upscaled IEDs, SVBIEDs and roadsides attacks especially in the capital Mogadishu which has recorded over dozen attacks in recent past days.

Recently Claimed Attacks (August 14^th – August 18^th)

• On August 15^th, Al-Shabaab gunmen assassinated a young man who operated a Pharmacy in Mogadishu’s Hodan district.  Al-Shabaab assassin who pretended they were buying some medicines shot dead the young pharmacist identified ad Feisal Mohamed Hussein. The militant through its media wing claimed responsibility of the killing and accused the man of being an intelligence officer spying for the Somalia government.
• On August 15th, A huge explosion was reported in the port town of Kismayo, Lower Juba, some 500kilometers from the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the explosion was from a hand grenade that was hurled by Al-Shabaab operatives on a newly built house in Kismayo town. No casualties were reported on this incident.
• On August 15th, Al-Shabaab conducted a roadside bomb attack followed by gunfire in Warmaxan area between Afgooye and Wanalaweyn, Lower Shabelle region. The roadside bomb targeted US-trained Danab convoy. Al-Shabaab claimed that they killed at least five soldiers in the blast and also seized two motorcycles.
• On August 15th, A contingent of Somali National Army (SNA) troops successfully repulsed an Al-Shabaab attack on an army operating base in Gedo region of Somalia. The Islamist militants had opened fire at a strategic bridge near the military base in Burdhuubo town within Gedo. No casualties were reported in the brief clash that saw overpowered militants flee into the neighboring thickets.
• On August 16th, Al-Shabaab claimed a deadly attack on Elite hotel in Liido beach in Abdulaziz district in Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the Islamist militant fighters gained access inside the hotel before a car bomb (SVBIED) exploded at the entrance and a fierce gun battle with security forces ensued. According to police sources, at least 16 mostly civilians were killed and more than 28 others were wounded during the assault.
• On August 16^th, Somalia Education Minister Abdullahi Godah Barre survived a bomb attack after his convoy hit a roadside bomb between Beled Hawo and Dolow towns of Gedo region. At least two lawmakers alongside the Education Minister were slightly wounded in the attack.
• On August 16^th, Al-Shabaab claimed multiple explosions on the road between Janale and Buufow that killed nine AMISOM soldiers, mostly Ugandans. Several explosions hit a vehicle carrying the targeted troops. The Al-Qaeda aligned Islamist Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the blasts in the Lower Shabelle region which is one of the areas where most of attacks targeting local and foreign troops are frequently being recorded.
• On August 17^th, Al-Shabaab fighters launched an attack on SNA military base in Goofgaduud, about 30kilometers from Baidoa town, Bay region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that loud explosions followed by indiscriminate gunfire were heard in the area as Al-Shabaab militants reportedly stormed the base after detonating a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED). Buray Isak Ali, the District Commissioner was killed alongside four other soldiers, five others were wounded in the attack.
• On August 17^th, Suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen assassinated HirShabelle State Agriculture Minister Abdikadir Abukar Karani in Jowhar town. Initial reports indicate that the regional Minister was shot and killed shortly after attending evening prayers outside a Mosque near his home. Karani was among the Ministers recently appointed by HirShabelle State President Abdi Ware.
• On August 17^th, At least six people were killed and several others wounded in a bomb attack detonated at a busy market in Beled Hawo town of Gedo region.

CT-Operations, Concerns & Insights

Even as the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab militants continue to upscale attacks in theater from across various regions Somalia, SNA and coalition partner forces also continue to mount pressure to thwart possible attacks besides disrupt the group’s plans and networks.

SNA supported by allied partner forces (AMISOM) over the weekend took control of a strategic town from Al-Shabaab. In a joint military operation, SNA and AMISOM troops recaptured Kuntuwaarey town located in southwest of Somalia’s Lower Shabelle.

Kuntuwaarey town has been a strategic town for Al-Shabaab’s operations for many years. During this operation, the joint troops completed an operation against a school run by Al-Shabaab and rescued 33 children who had forcibly been taken as recruits by the Islamists militant group.

S.I. coninue to document and record events in Somalia and it notable of increased sponsored militant’s conferences, schools fronted by the jihadists and gatherings that are undoubtedly turning out to be ground for Al-Shabaab’s recruitment. Besides, Al-Shabaab is using these platforms to preach against collaboration with local and foreign forces as well as championing their twisted ideology.

Its should be of utmost concern to the CT-actors in Somalia that the militant group continue to forcibly recruit thousands of children (under age) for indoctrination to become frontline fighters in the future missions.

Its also of a concern that, the militants are forcibly pressuring religious scholars/clerics and religious schools to teach Al-Shabaab’s curriculum. Many graduations have been witnessed especially in Middle Juba’s Jilib, where Al-Shabaab maintains a huge control.

Targeted assassinations of key government officials either from Federal government or semi-autonomous states continue to be targeted in Al-Shabaab’s raids. The militant group also has perfected the strategy of planting roadside/landmines and RCIEDs on frequently used roads by these key officials and joint troops.

It’s also notable of relentless surge of sporadic attacks within Somalia and close to the border with Kenya targeting military defense posts. These persistent attacks are a part of the group’s strategy aimed at neutralizing security forces by first destroying their Forward Operating Bases (FOBs).

As the militant group continue to escalate attacks in various towns, localities and broadly in regions of Somalia, it’s media wing continue to champion the group’s agenda by hurriedly amplifying the group’s successes in theater. In a recent one-hour long video released by Al-Shabaab propaganda media wing, the video shows past deadly ambush assaults against Ethiopian military convoys near Somalia’s Baidoa town.

The video aimed at activating its cells and boosting morale of its fighters’ parades dozens of dead soldiers, destroyed army vehicles and other seized military spoils. The video also introduces one of the group’s senior commander killed in US drone strike speaking against Ethiopian troops whom he described as historical enemies of Muslims in the horn of Africa. The recent video should be a wake-up call to CT-actors and COIN operations, as the video possibly is preparing fighters to take up roles in coming missions. More attacks (roadside, landmines, ambush and suicide missions) expected on AMISOM convoys and FOBs especially in Gedo, Bay and Bakool regions where AMISOM maintains Ethiopian operated bases.