The Islamic State’s Al-Naba newsletter has released an editorial that has issued a warning to western interests in Mozambique and especially in the northern province of Cabo Delgado. The editorial dubbed ‘The Crusaders risk their investments in Mozambique’ was published to glorify the attacks by the Islamic State Central Africa (ISCA). In the past months, the ISCA has exhibited its capabilities by staging increasingly sophisticated and destructive attacks on oil facilities and government targets and civilian populations. The threat has elicited national and regional attention with various actors in the southern Africa region in an attempt to decamp the insurgent before the threat became a cross-border militancy like experienced in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin.
The newsletter released the editorial as Fenix construction company announced that 8 of its workers had been killed and three others still missing in Mocimboa Da Praia. Fenix is a key partner in the Liquid Natural gas (LNG) project in the Cabo Delgado. In the editorial, IS claims that ISCA has been liberating the residents of Cabo Delgado from the hands of the apostates and western crusaders that have been rallying resources from France, America, and South Africa to swindle the locals of the resources, arable land, and fishing waters. The editorial says; that the Crusaders and the Communist atheists have inflicted the evil of torture on the Muslims in that abode, and have compelled a great portion to abandon their religion. Only then did the Crusaders notice that the continuation of the crimes of the Communist government against the Muslims opened the door before the revenge of the soldiers of the Caliphate against the Crusader Mozambique army and whoso has supported it from the disbelievers and apostates. ISCA further warned that international and regional intervention would only increase their resolve as the fight to restore the glory of Islam and the resources that are being fought for my international investors but not benefiting the residents.
Threat Matrix
The threat posed by ISCA has been heightened in the past weeks as reports indicate that the militancy has more fighters than articulated by available intelligence especially seeing as the group does not self-promote on social media. Intelligence as of early July the group has more fighters than anticipated seeing as the Mozambican troops reportedly attempted an attack on a militants’ camp with intelligence revealing the capacity to be at least 400 terrorists. It is clear that the group has more fighters and as such the Mozambican government that lacks adequate skills and counterinsurgency intelligence to map out the threat and carve out a successful strategy to ensure that the threat is contained and eradicated. With ISCA threatening to breach the borders and expand the caliphate, countries like Tanzania are on high alert especially since it borders Cabo Delgado and with a sizable percentage of the militants being of Tanzanian descent. Recently, the number of ISCA members active and in seemingly high-ranking positions from Tanzania has been on the rise. Videos and reports have adeptly shown that most terrorists active in Mozambique speak Swahili and its dialects mostly spoken in Tanzania and the Northern coastal strip.
Oil Companies Catalyse ISCA Insurgency And Attacks
Cabo Delgado is now home to Africa’s three largest liquid natural gas (LNG) projects: the Mozambique LNG Project (Total, formerly Anadarko) worth $20bn, Coral FLNG Project (ENI and ExxonMobil) worth $4.7bn, and Rovuma LNG Project (ExxonMobil, ENI and CNPC) worth $30bn. The inception of the project can be viewed as the major catalyst for the insurgency in Cabo Delgado mainly because of the poor nature it was implemented with little regard to the socio-economic welfare of the residents who would be displaced by the projects. Despite the billions in investments these contracts have brought, the people of Cabo Delgado are yet to see any benefit from them. In fact, some have already suffered immensely from the arrival of the gas industry at least 4000 families would feel the effect of the projects with meagre compensation that will most likely not reach them owing to corruption. The communities are losing their homes, arable land, and fishing water which provide for the livelihoods of the residents who have suffered historical neglect from the government. The circumstances have created the perfect conditions for ISCA to thrive and expand across the various districts in Cabo Delgado. A company like ExxonMobil has interests in Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa. The scramble for natural resources in Africa especially by multinational companies has created conditions that attract jihadists and rebel movements as seen in the unique case of Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Military Shortfalls
While the Mozambican government has used a military response to the ISCA threat in Cabo Delgado, the response has been met with criticism owing to its brutal nature and inability to work with the residents. The lack of military intelligence on the Mozambican side in regards to the inworking of ISCA has created a gap that has led to the loss of life on the troops and innocent civilians. The lack of intelligence on the operations and the militants has led to the harassment of residents who are accused by the troops to be colluding and helping ISCA creating a vicious cycle of mistrust that creates a loop exploited by the terror organization for recruitment and rallying sympathizers. Reports have shown that the military and paramilitary allies have been using excessive force and outright brutality against residents invoking anger especially among the unemployed youths and indirectly sponsoring radicalization.
Counterinsurgency response
Counterinsurgency assets in Mozambique ought not to ignore the mounting threat by ISCA especially with the current intelligence gaps that allow the group to exhibit their sophistication and frequency in attacks. The group has ceaselessly shown its capability to conduct attacks across the vast province drawing members from the province as well as the region including countries like Uganda and Tanzania. With the group threatening Western assets in the country and receiving major recognition from the ISIS-central is giving the fighters morale and confidence to conduct attacks with precision. The mode of attacks by ISCA includes launching small drones for position scouting, displaying Islamic State flags during attacks, beheading victims, and kidnapping girls in the model of Nigeria’s Boko Haram. While it is still early in the group’s metamorphosis to breach the borders, it is not entirely n impossibility in the future as such triggering the need for haste and holistic response to the problem including address the root cause and kinetic combat response to the insurgency.
