The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia Harakat Shabaab al-Mujahideen increased terror related activities in the region, conducting attacks on critical infrastructure in Kenya and bombings in Somalia Mid-May 2020, signaling a surge during the Holy Month of Ramadhan and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
The group conducted 5 different attacks in the region over the weekend signaling a surge during mid-Ramadhan period. The group continues to demonstrate capability to adapt to Counter-Terrorism Operations by both AMISOM & AFRICOM. The group also has demonstrated it has capacity to conduct cross-border attacks by employing guerilla strategies, a critical point to take away for CT Operators in the region. More robust kinetic CT operations besides CT-Counter Intelligence ops are urgent.
The surge is also an indicator of the terrorists group’s intent to continue mounting attacks in the region, targeting civilians, government, and security personnel. Though significantly suppressed, the group continues to pose a grave threat to regions security and stability. The attacks in Kenya were demonstrative terror attacks, an indicator the group was demonstrating its capacity to specific audiences (Government).
Throughout early Ramadhan period, the group has avoided orchestrating attacks, a shift from its previous campaigns. While this is largely factored by new AMISOM FOB strategies to ward off attacks, the group has been avoiding moving large groups of its fighters to avoid interception and airstrikes. AMISOM FOB’s are now better reinforced making the groups targets limited.
Notable is the group’s diminishing capability to conduct suicide borne vehicular suicide bombings, assaults on infantry troops, and raids on local military camps and police stations. This connotes a decline in those capabilities, a major gain to CT Operators in the region. Also notable is the decline of the terror group’s transnational capacity with a steady decline of attacks on civilians through bombing churches, hotels, and villages. While these threats remain and agencies continue monitoring the terrorist group’s activities, their frequency and potency has significantly declined in the region.
