The Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab which has bedeviled the East African country of Somalia for over a decade continues to record successful attacks against the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and its allied partners. In the past one week, Al-Shabaab has claimed more than ten attacks in Somalia, signaling imminent terror group’s resurgence amid the COVID – 19 global pandemic.
Claimed attacks in past one week
March 29, Al-Shabaab claimed two IED attacks on AMISOM convoy in Souq neighborhood, Heliwa district in the capital Mogadishu. Casualties reported.
On March 27, the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed at least five attacks. The militant group claimed IED attack targeting Chief Abdullah Diiri and his two body guards in Ras Kamboni, Lower Juba, near Kenya Somalia border. Terror group claimed to have caused casualties.
March 27, Al-Shabaab claimed to have repulsed a Somali Government assault in Janale city, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
March 27, Al-Shabaab claimed another attack against SNA in Dharkenley district of Mogadishu. Casualties reported and military equipment destroyed.
March 27, the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab claimed another attack on Ugandan troops with more than 20 mortar shells in Janale city, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
March 27, Shabaab claimed its fifth attack on the same day in Udikili district, Lower Shabelle in an armed assault on SNA troops. Casualties reported.
March 26, Al-Shabaab claimed armed assault on SNA military base in Daynuney village in the outskirts of Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia.
March 26, Shabaab also claimed another mortar shelling on Ugandan troops and SNA bases in Janale city, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Casualties reported.
March 24, Shabaab claimed attack on SNA troops in Janale city, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Militant group claimed to have killed three SNA soldiers and destroyed their military vehicles.
March 24, Al-Shabaab claimed ambush attack on Somali government troops at Bakara market, Mogadishu, Somalia killing one SNA soldier and seizing their weapons.
Al-Shabaab Extends Condolences to Al-Qaeda Leaders Killed in Maghreb
The general leadership of Al-Shabaab on March 28, issued a statement addressing to Al-Qaeda Organization in the Islamic Maghreb entitled “Congratulations and condolences for the martyrdom of the two leaders, Sheikh Yahya Abi Al-Hammam Al-Jazaery and Sheikh Abi Ayad Al-Tounsi and their brothers.”
The statement underscored that its a sad day for the Mujahideen and their families for the loss, noting that the leaders have been killed alongside several others and thus insisting those left behind to succeed them.
In a number of times, the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab have praised Al-Qaeda campaigns in West Africa (Sahel region) especially in Mali.
Analysis
Al-Shabaab has perfected the art of propaganda warfare and it has utilized this through publication of its claimed successes through its pro-websites, media and channels. The militant group is hurriedly publishing its attack claims faster as compared to yester years.
The terror group’s strength despite the COVID – 19 epidemic continues to grow. The group has infiltrated government, spy and intelligence network through gear and intimidation as portrayed in countless number of assassinations and during the COVID – 19 crisis, the militant group is exploiting this crisis to conducting surprise attacks on military troops and onto their bases in Somalia.
Al-Shabaab is utilizing the rule of divide and conquer in Somalia. By penetrating into Somalia government security, Al-Shabaab is able to get intelligence from their insiders and subsequently is able to record successful attacks. The militant group has publicly assassinated government officers in an effort to instill fear to either work with them or face the same fate.
Extorted monies: Significantly, Al-Shabaab has no shortage of funds. Al-Shabaab collects payments from people, including companies, through extortion and intimidation. If you have a business in Somalia, you should pay them otherwise your business will be blown out. It finances its operations through a kind of forced taxation from the public.
Al-Shabaab requires funds to finance its ambitious intelligence wing, Amniyaat, in its gathering of intelligence from institutions of the Federal Government, Federal States, AMISOM, Somalia’s neighbors, foreign governments and international agencies. The militant group also need to procure weapons, ammunition, explosives, vehicles and other warfare materials and finally, it has to fund for its elaborate publicity and propaganda network and platforms thereby sustaining its campaigns in Somalia.
The Somali based Al-Shabaab appreciation and issuing messages of condolences of other Al-Qaeda branches and networks in traditional jihadist playgrounds is symbolic and also notable.
In the Maghreb, Al-Qaeda’s branch in Somalia advises the jihadists to take an active role in attacking French and American establishments, their joint forces in the five countries in the Sahel region.
Their statement encourages jihadists to march on the path of jihad and strengthen the blows to the ‘crusaders’ in unity until they attain victory. The statement reflects and seeks to push Al-Qaeda’s agenda in ongoing role in guiding the insurgencies in East and West Africa.
Insight and Conclusion
With bulging economic lifeline, Al-Shabaab threat isn’t decreasing but its steadily growing. From July 2018 to July 2019, the terrorist group reportedly carried out 548 attacks in Somalia using homemade explosives, compared with 413 from the previous year and corresponding period, citing open sources reports.
Al-Shabaab’s threat is expected to increase citing the group’s growing economic muscle and societal strength as exhibited. The group’s attacks trend-line indicate that the group is carrying multiple attacks in a day in Somalia, a trend that could easily excite group’s cells including its cells operating along northeastern prefectures of Kenya.
Although SNA, AMISOM and other allied forces in Somalia have made significant milestones in disrupting Al-Shabaab operations in many of the areas the militant group previously controlled, the group remains resilient and a lethal force with the ability to stage surprise attacks. The group’s ability of staging an attack on daily basis proves contrary to views that the militant group has weakened and on the verge of defeat and rather, the group remains resilient and a reminder that security assets without a new and effective strategy, there is a risk of Al-Shabaab re-taking control of the Somalia and beyond.
Also, Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia continue to highlight the power of propaganda warfare and its general command therefore encourages the fighters in the Maghreb to continue producing propaganda, noting that the Islamic Ummah (worldwide community of Muslims) closely follow their, publications statements and media productions.
