There are credible indicators that the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen (HSM) is re-surging in the East African region, besides the spectacular high-causalities attacks. The group has reactivated its cells in the region, particularly in Kenya and Tanzania. Apart from demonstrating its capability to conduct attacks, adapt and weather convectional military operations, the terror group has morphed both its strategy and tactical capabilities to either match or outmatch military and sociopolitical pressure. Intelligence further confirms the group has been recruiting fighters from the region, with an increase in numbers of would-be jihadists querying for Hijra contacts and routes recorded between October and December 2019.
The region will certainly face significant challenges posed by jihadists. What is more worrying is that the resurgence involves activation of over-zealous grassroots jihadists with medium militant capability but ideologically inspired. In Tanzania, more cells are establishing their networks both virtually and physically, they are aggressive and spoilt for choice (choosing between Mozambique based Islamic States and Somalia’s Al-Shabaab Mujahideen).
Along the Kenya-Somalia border, the group has increased the use of roadside-improvised explosive devices (R-IED) targeting security forces and innocent civilians. The increase is higher compared to other quarterly reports on terror events on the NEP –Prefecture, hence alarming and requiring a robust COIN strategy.
In Somalia, the terrorist organization has continued unabated to conduct spectacular attacks targeting heavily fortified military and government facilities including the State House and AMISOM & UN Headquarters at Halane Complex. The group stages a minimum of 2 attacks across the country targeting SNA troops and at least 1 attack targeting AMISOM troops. The terror group demonstrated its dynamism and capability to target the most complex targets when it attacked American Military Special Forces Operations base in Awadhegle, a high-security and value facility not so far away from the Capital Mogadishu.
Security and Intelligence Agencies in the region have a challenging task ahead 2020. The resurgence will affect individual country’s socio-politics, a panacea for upheaval and discontent with the agencies. It is primary security and intelligence services to invest heavily in countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them.
