Somali government officials specifically in the defense and foreign ministry are seeking the withdrawal of Kenya Defense Forces who control Sector II, under the AMISOM command.
Mogadishu wrote to AMISOM pointing out that they were in the process of meeting all stakeholders in Kismayu and the rest of Jubba region of Somalia for consultative meetings on peace and reconciliation.
Mogadishu cites Sector II commanders specifically Kenyan army commanders in Kismayu and other areas like Afmadow as hindering the objective of the government.
This hindrance in particular is the larger reason why Mogadishu wants Kenya Defense Forces out of Somalia.
Strategic Intelligence Analysis
The withdrawal of Kenya Defense Forces in Jubba regions is suicidal for a myriad of reasons including the resurgence of Al-Shabaab, emergence of new clan based Islamist wars, and the eventual loss of Kismayu to Al-Shabaab.
Kenya has worked hard to ensure the destruction of bases, sources of revenue and food, besides supplies and training/recruitment facilities/resources of the Militant Al-Shabaab terrorists.
In other Sectors AMISOM forces have either failed to make strategic military gains against the militants or are completely overwhelmed by the terrorists strategy against them.
The withdrawal of Ethiopian forces left a vacuum and recruitment of militants in Barawe and upper regions of Somalia has been going on.
Ramifications of Kenya Defense Forces Exit in Somalia
Somalia’s weak government has little capacity to fight insecurity and militancy, most of which is facilitated from South and Central Somalia.
Geo-politically, both areas are close to the border with Republic of Kenya, East and Central Africa military super-power.
In the Juba region, where oil prospects besides maritime boundaries are now contentious issues between Mogadishu and Nairobi, Kenya wants a buffer zone, militarized by forces friendly to its government.
Kenya has been working with Ahmed Madobe who is now the president of the region to achieve the buffer.
