Albeit the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen Movement (HSM) recent insurgency in Somalia (throughout 2016), there are indications of lethargy and defeat in theater. The consistent killing of top leaders of the terror group, bombing of field commanders and their militia, besides the decimation of bases and training bases has weakened the terror group significantly.
Massive loss of territory to AMISOM & SNA troops has reduced Al-Shabaab Mujahideen capability to carry out planning of attacks, furthering their ideology, and establishing a form of alternative leadership structure for Somalia. While loss of territory factors increase in attacks against targets, Al-Shabaab capability as a transnational terror group is weak. There have been fewer major attacks against soft targets in East Africa; an indicator of groups waning capability in transnational terrorism besides a decline in resources and foreign fighters.
This decline will be steady for as long as AMISOM remains in Somalia and less foreign influence on its operations is assured. While experts insist that the future of Somalia is hinged on a political solution, the militant group influence on clan politics is the gravest of threats to stability and economic growth. AMISOM’s role in Somalia has been to weaken and subsequently destroy the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Al-Shabaab Mujahideen Movement (HSM); and this is being achieved.
