A series of bombings in Mogadishu in the past few days, the patrols in the suburbs of the Somali capital by Al-Shabaab battalions, and the killing of 32 Puntland soldiers sent a chilling whisper across the forces trying to bring peace to Somalia.
Al-Shabaab is again breathing and re-grouping after Kenya Defense Forces incursion stopped and was replaced by a peace keeping mission with a new set of rules of engagement defined.
Up north in Somalia, Ethiopian soldiers have been killed along the AWSLJ militia. The Al-Shabaab are making inroads in Baidoa and further north to Puntland Galgala mountains.
Al-Shabaab took control of Mudug area and unleashed terror there besides killing security officers.
They have managed to gain holds in Bay and Bokool areas with many of heir intelligence officers making significant contributions in regaining lost ground through credible intelligence gathering and reporting.
Analysis
Since the rehatting of the KDF to AMISOM, strategic gains made by Kenya army have gradually been lost to insurgency in strategic areas of Somalia where Al-Shabaab sought refuge and bases.
A host of other factors contribute to these losses including British intervention which is seen as a ‘Petro-dollar’ intervention that will further plunder Somali communities.
KDF bombing, aerial surveillance, bombardment of Al-Shabaab troops, equipment, and strategic bases had inflicted profound damage on the Al-Shabaab moral high ground and leadership besides resources.
Lack of such inflictions rather reignites resurgence witnessed today and could explode to a more radical and capable militia.
With a limited offensive role in Somalia, KDF offers minimal military help against Al-Shabaab further giving the dangerous outfit time to regain energy and regroup.
Though still in action, KDF hardly deploys lethal force noR uses a strategy to incisively cut deep into the nerve centers of Al-Shabaab to destroy their systems, rather follows a moderate military approach that dwells mostly on peace keeping.
In May alone, Al-Shabaab launched over 50 operations against both TFG, KDF, AMISOM, and Ethiopian army successfully inflicting damage and causalities.
Al-Shabaab has identified new bases including Galgala mountains, Golis Mountains, Mudug, which are very difficult to access and breach as fort. The new front of the Al-Shabaab war is the north with Puntland and Baidoa areas principal in the incursions.
