Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 15th July- 22nd July 2021

SOMALIA

• 20^th July- ISS released photos and videos of the group celebrating Eid Al-Adha which shows their leader Sheikh Abdul Qadir Mumin
• 14^th July- 3 SNA soldiers were killed and 5 others injured after their vehicle struck an IED in Afgooye

DRC

• 22^nd July– 16 people were killed and 8 wounded in an ISCAP ambush attack on a vehicle on the Samboko-Chanichani road, 45 km from Oicha Center.
• 22^nd July– an IED explosion killed one person and 2 others injured in Kanzanza, a village near Halungupa
• 20^th July– ISCAP attacked a military base in Mahala, Irumu in Ituri with automatic weapons and BDA indicates that the militants looted weapons and ammo from the base.
• 16^th July– ISCAP attacked a military post in Bandi Mbisi in Ituri with automatic weapons and BDA indicates that the militants looted weapons and ammo from the base.
• 16^th July- ISCAP attacked, razed Christian’s homes and vehicles in Kalungta village in Beni.
• 16^th July- Four people were killed in a new attack by ISCAP in Mayimoya; the victims were stabbed to death with knives.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 22^nd July– ISCAP attacked several villages in Muidumbe including Nampanha, Namakule, and Mandave
• 17^th July- 1 person was caught and beheaded by ISCAP in Mitope Village in Mocimboa Da Praia district.
• 15^th July– 4 Christians were shot and killed near Mekombe, and Mozambican soldiers targeted on the Palma-Mocimboa road fled their position,

ANALYSIS

In July, Mozambique’s allies both from the West and Africa have been rallying around the nation pledging and offering up their support to eradicate ISCAP which is believed to have over 3000 soldiers spread across Cabo Delgado. The group’s activities have also been luring fighters from across East Africa taking advantage of the porous border with Tanzania and as such significant attention ought to be paid to border security.

 South African & Botswanan military forces were deployed to Pemba, Mozambique as part of the SADC mission’s advance team. While the advance team is not expected to be immediately involved in direct combat operations against ISCAP Mozambique, they are expected to gather intelligence, conduct reconnaissance, advise the FADM, and prepare logistics for a potential deployment of the full brigade.

The Rwandan troops who arrived in Cabo Delgado last Friday, hit the ground running and have already had direct contact with the insurgents Afungi at the Total base as their FOB. Intelligence indicates that RDF patrolling a forest near Palma and encountered the insurgents in Quionga village and killed at least 30 of them as the rest retreated towards the Tanzanian border.

Germany announced that it would provide 4.2 million euros in support of a project managed by the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to strengthen stability and security in the cross-border area of Mozambique with Tanzania. It is purposed to improve security in the borderlands ranging Cabo Delgado’s northern reaches along the Rovuma River which is a key route for the movement of the insurgents into Cabo Delgado.

Abnaa Ul Calipha, has been stepping its attacks and presence in Somalia with photo sets of its militants in combat mode as well as celebrating the holiday. In the past month, the group which has appeared dormant has resurged with attacks in Puntland, Mogadishu, and Afgoye which is indicative of a growing network as well as taking advantage of the political turmoil in Somalia, the withdrawal of US troops, and the impending drawdown of AMISOM troops.

In DRC, at least seven ISCAP fighters surrendered themselves with five AK 47-type weapons to the military in Boga and Tchabi in the south of Irumu territory, in Ituri sighting the growing pressure from the military as their reason to disengage from the terror organization. Of the seven five were Congolese and the other two are Rwandans reaffirming intelligence that ISCAP in DRC has many foreign fighters drawing from the larger East African and Central Africa region.

The activities by the terror organization have been limited with intelligence indicating that there has been a mass exodus of terrorists from Beni to Lubero who travel in caravans with both men and women. S.I analysts have previously shone a light on the involvement of women in terrorism and it’s evident that the role in DRC is rather active as they provide shield and hospitality services as well as messages and recently IED couriers. Despite the active military presence in Beni and Ituri, the group continues to ambush the military at their posts as well as civilians which have instilled fear among the population who are still wary of the military who have in the past violated human rights in their resolution of conflict in the war-torn region of DRC.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

In Mozambique, the threat has been underreported especially by the government, and reduced the group into a rebel organization comprised of disgruntled youth while the reality of the matter the group has established itself ISIS-style. The ambiguity of their operations and seeming lack of intelligence has not only strengthened the group but will also pose a major threat to the SADC force and Rwanda troops who are heavily reliant on the intelligence and security frameworks erected by their Mozambican counterparts. Like most insurgencies in Africa, military interventions from different allies will not be adequate to quash the group’s activities and requires the curation of a holistic approach that doesn’t rain bullets on all the youth in Cabo Delgado who appear to be slowly arming themselves with military-grade spoils from the attacks.

In DRC, the military siege in the two provinces appears to have been effective on the surface but the root cause of the insurgency, the mistrust between the security forces and citizens is still a major deterrent to the success and topple of ISCAP in Beni and Ituri. While the government still views the group as rebels, ISCAP has been recruiting, establishing networks of collaborators and operatives across the region which appear to work seamlessly in supporting the operations of the group and the same time attacking military positions to loot and seize weaponry and other equipment and evidenced by the photos released on social media.

Social media and other online forums are increasingly being exploited by terrorist outfits to spread violent extremist narratives and activity, besides luring potential recruits and countering and destroying their channels/networks would be of paramount importance. ISCAP in Mozambique and DRC as well as ISS in Somalia have been exploiting social media to take claims of attacks as well as to conduct campaigns that have been garnering international attention which has in turn been cementing their positions as lethal provinces of ISIS.

More than ever, CT actors should evaluate the success and shortcoming of existing COIN strategies especially in dealing with the ever-changing threat. Outdated methods have proven ineffective and it is paramount that the security apparatuses adjust accordingly in providing lasting remedies. Besides, marginalization and poverty-instigated insurgencies are rarely addressed by military interventions alone without addressing the underlying societal, economic, and political issues as evidenced by the inflation of the reach by the groups, especially in Cabo Delgado and Beni.