Threat Assessment on ISIL’s Capability to Conduct Attacks in East African Countries: Somalia & Kenya

EVENT SUMMARY

In the last quarter of 2015, ISIL militancy increased with more than 200 fighters initially belonging from the Al Qaeda affiliated Al Shabaab reportedly shifting allegiance in favour of ISIL led faction in Somalia.

The first batch of Al Shabaab members to pledge baya’h to ISIL was witnessed in Somali’s Puntland State led by then spiritual leader, Sheikh Muumin with a group of 20 fighters.

In late November 2015, Mohamed Kuno alias Gamadheere the Lower Jubba commander of Al Shabaab also reportedly  shifted loyalty from Al Shabaab faction to ISIL fold making the first coherent Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant group (ISIL) military brigade in East Africa.

During the festive season of 2015, terror alerts were issued by the Kenya’s Police Service boss, Inspector General Boinnet warning of Al Shabaab splitting into two groups’ one remaining royal to the parent group Al Qaeda while the other majorly consisting of foreign fighters pledged allegiance to ISIL.

ANALYSIS/ASSESSMENT

Intelligence service on its reports warned of the split could lead to competition for recruits prompting each faction and especially ISIL planning to conduct attacks in Somalia and even Kenya to woo jihadists.

Intelligence further pointed out that either faction may be keen to prove its capability and power over the other by staging attacks on soft targets including crowded places, shopping malls, entertainment joints, restaurants, bus stations, and airports, institutions of higher learning and places of worship.

The Al Shabaab split based along ideological and religious lines will pose long term security threats on the region citing each faction keen on promoting the internal competition by proving a point.

The only way these split faction can prove to be superior over the other is capability of staging successful staging attacks and competing to spread an international jihadist agenda.

Further, IG Boinnet warned that Al Qaeda and ISIL affiliated factions amass an estimated 100 Al-Shabaab fighters operating on either side of Somali-Kenya border.

Kenya’s geographical proximity with Somalia makes it easy for the jihadist fighters to regularly cross over to attack in both countries.

Police reports indicate of an active pro-ISIL cell established itself in the Lafey area of Mandera County, formerly in NEP Kenya while on the other hand reports indicate pro-Al Qaida faction largely operates from Boni Forest in Southern Kenya.

SUMMARY

Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) has been deployed to Boni forest and Mandera border locality to flush out the militants.

The announcement of new ISIL faction in Somalia and Kenya is a challenge to security agencies from both countries citing the Middle East based ISIL’s financial capability to aid the new-born offshoot to stage attacks.

The group that started with 20 fighters is now growing with Kenya’s Intelligence estimating 1,400 strong foreign jihadists expected to realign with the new ISIL affiliate in East Africa.

Apart from establishing active cell along Kenya-Somali border area, ISIL fighters are reportedly active in the mountainous region of northern Somalia and already have waged numerous battles against armed forces of the Puntland State.

The expansion of ISIL in Somalia and in Kenya marks the worrisome extension of Syria-Iraqi group’s to East African nations for the first time and its militancy needs to be neutralized before it fully gains foothold onto the two nations.