Al Shabaab’s Leader, Expels 2 Commanders From Executive Council Who Opposed Civilian Attacks In Mogadishu In Apparent Wrangles Within Group

Highlights

• Two top-level al Shabaab fired from the al Shabaab executive council also known as Tanfid.
• The two; Mahad Karate and Bashir Qorgab were fired following irreconcilable differences with the leader; Sheikh Ahmed Umar Abu Ubaidah.
• The commanders opposed the decision by Ubaidah to continue targeting the civilian population in Mogadishu.
• Tanfid serves as the executive council that makes all major al Shabaab decisions including targets and modes of attack by the terrorist organization.
• The firing of such top commanders will rock the al Shabaab hierarchy seeing as the two were defending the core ideology fostered by the group.

Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (HSM) leader, Sheikh Ahmed Umar Abu Ubaidah has fired two high-level commanders from the group’s executive council. The two were fired after the sought to dissuade the Sheikh from approving more attacks against civilians in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. The two have since been identified as Mahad Karate and Bashir Qorgab high-ranking members of the Tanfid.

The Ubaidah-led al Shabaab has been targeting the civilian populace in Mogadishu in attacks that have seen hundreds of innocent civilians, the majority of them Muslims killed in the attacks by the group. Intelligence has consistently indicated wrangles within the executive council owing to the fact that the commanders differ constantly on attack targets. Karate and Qorgab have remained vocal and strongly opposed against the targeting of innocent civilians in Somalia seeing as they view it as a direct contradiction to the core ideology of HSM which is to establish a sharia-governed state. The killing of believers and brothers is strongly forbidden and therefore the two view the actions of Ubaidah to be in direct violation of the same.

The expulsion of the two commanders will undoubtedly cause a rift within the HSM ranks seeing as there is a huge number within the group that doesn’t agree with the violence against Muslims, and innocent civilians especially women and children who make a huge percentage of the casualties in the al Shabaab attacks. Such occasions have historically been known to trigger wrangles within HSM as well as resulted in an upsurge in high profile defections.

Zubair al-Muhajir, a top Al-Shabaab foreign fighter, defected last year after irreconcilable differences with the top leadership. Born in Ivory Coast before moving to Britain, Zubair was one of militant trusted with the collection of intelligence within Amniyat. He has been quoted saying that his reasons for defecting were; the group was lying to Muslims and the world as they are claiming to implement the Sharia (Islamic law) which is not true because he knew of incidents where they went against the Sharia.

Insight

It is evident that as the group faces heightened opposition from the civil population as well as an upsurge in operations against them by the Somali government and allied forces, the group is feeling the pressure. The wrangles within the group and especially at the leadership level is a clear indicator that the group is weakened and is seeking to lash out without the previously exhibited meticulousness. Defections will skyrockets as the leadership brass has lost faith in the group’s core ideology as well as wrangles that could lead to executions. As previously noted, the group detains opposers of the leadership and even executes vocal individuals that question the executive decisions. Therefore, it is clear that the bough is about to break and security agencies should position themselves to take advantage of the blowout, offer amnesty as well as persuade high-ranking defection that will offer intelligence that could lead to the ultimate defeat of al Shabaab in Somalia.