Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of July 1st – July 31st, 2024: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary.

In July 2024, there was a noticeable surge in terrorist attacks in Kenya and Somalia compared to June 2024. The Al-Shabaab group orchestrated a series of violent operations across both countries, significantly increasing the number of incidents. These attacks employed various tactics such as ambushes, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and direct assaults, indicating a diverse approach to destabilizing the region.

The types of attacks frequently employed by Al-Shabaab included ambushes, IED explosions, and armed assaults. For instance, on July 31, 2024, an IED attack targeted Somali forces in Baidoa, Bay State, killing two soldiers and injuring one. Similarly, on July 30, 2024, Al-Shabaab launched a direct assault on troops in Barahow camp, Gedo, resulting in casualties. These methods demonstrate a combination of surprise attacks and strategic explosives to maximize impact.

Common weaponry used in these attacks involved IEDs, small arms, and artillery fire. For example, on July 27, 2024, an IED blast killed five Somali National Army (SNA) soldiers and injured their commander in Arbaow camp. Artillery was used in the attack on ATMIS troops in Afmadow, Lower Juba, on July 28, 2024. These weapons not only cause immediate casualties but also instill fear and disrupt military operations.

Several areas experienced repeat attacks, indicating their susceptibility to future incidents. Lower Shabelle, Gedo, and Mogadishu were frequently targeted. For instance, Lower Shabelle saw multiple attacks on July 27, 2024, including an ambush on a convoy delivering fuel to Bilidoogle station. Gedo faced assaults on July 30, 2024, and July 31, 2024, illustrating a persistent threat in these regions.

In total, there were over 50 attacks in July 2024, marking a significant increase from the previous month. This escalation highlights the need for enhanced military intelligence and coordinated efforts to counteract these threats. The variety and frequency of these operations demonstrate Al-Shabaab’s capability to adapt and execute complex attacks, requiring a robust and multifaceted response from security forces.

The notable surge in terrorist activities in July 2024 underscores the evolving threat posed by Al-Shabaab in Kenya and Somalia. The group’s use of diverse attack methods, common weaponry, and repeated targeting of vulnerable areas necessitates concerted efforts to bolster military intelligence and operational capabilities. Addressing this challenge will be critical to reducing the frequency and impact of such attacks in the future.

Terrorism Events: July 1^st – July 31^st

1. July 31, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted a Somali forces checkpoint with an improvised explosive device (IED), killing 2 soldiers and injuring 1, in Baidoa, Bay State, Somalia.
2. July 31, 2024. Al-Shabaab ambushed a Somali military base, killing and injuring several soldiers, in Meri District, Kamboni, Somalia.
3. July 30, 2024: Al-Shabaab movement operating in the Islamic province of Gedo, launched a serious direct attack on the troops in Barahow camp in Kutalla district of Bardheere. Casualties reported.
4. July 30, 2024: In Bakool, the Mujahideen engaged in a heavy battle against the ATMIS forces’ camp in Hudur operated by ENDF.
5. July 29, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack on the Somali government checkpoint at Daud-yare, located between the Jazira area and Mogadishu. No casualties were reported.
6. July 28, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacks in Lower Shabelle, Marka vicinity against SNA troops.
7. July 28, 2024: Al-Shabaab waged attack against the camp of ATMIS troops in the general area of Afmadow, Lower Juba region of south Somalia. Some military vehicles were targeted in artillery fire.
8. July 27, 2024: there was an ambush in Lower Shabelle where they targeted a convoy of rebels leaving Afgooye district, who were attempting to deliver fuel to the Bilidoogle station.
9. July 27, 2024: in a planned IED blast operation, five SNA soldiers were killed and two others injured, including the commander of the SNA troops in Arbaow camp, Abdi Soubiye Carale, who lost his legs in the explosion.
10. July 27, 2024: Another explosion carried out by the Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces in Bulo-Mareer district, targeted a meeting place of the SNA troops. Unknown casualties reported.
11. July 24, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants reportedly ambushed government forces passing through Gacal near Ruunirgood town in the Middle Shabelle region. Several casualties have been reported.
12. July 24, 2024: Reports from the Baay region indicate that an IED explosion targeted Ethiopian forces in Qansaxdheere on Wednesday morning, resulting in several casualties. Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for the attack.
13. July 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed two Somalian military bases in Afgoyee City, southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia.
14. July 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed two Somalian forces trained in Uganda and Eritrea surrendered in Buqdaaqable City, Hiran, Somalia.
15. July 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab raided two Kenyan military bases in Lamu County and Damsi, Lafi, Mandera County, Kenya, killing six and injuring four.
16. July 22, 2024: Somali forces killed 80 Al-Shabaab militants in an armed assault and seized their weapons in Jubaland, southern Somalia.
17. July 22, 2024: Al-Shabaab fighters, coordinated assault on SNA bases in Buulo-Xaji, Harbole, Miido, and Bar Sanguuni, Lower Juba.
18. July 22, 2024: The Minister of Religious Affairs for Jubaland regional state Mohamed Omar Yusuf was injured by a roadside explosion while en route to Bulo Haji with reinforcements following today’s massive Al-Shabaab attack.
19. July 22, 2024: Al-Shabaab fighters ambushed government forces en route to the battlefields. The ambush occurred in Yoontooy, Farwaamo, and Cabdalla-Biroole in the Lower Jubba region, all close to Kismayo. Reports indicate that a senior Jubaland official was injured in the attack.
20. July 21, 2024: Al-Shabaab injured four Somalian forces in two IED attacks on military barracks in Tabliha and Sarkosta districts, Mogadishu, Somalia.
21. July 21, 2024: Al-Shabaab killed a Somalian military member and seized his weapon in an ambush on the outskirts of Masgway, Galgaduud, Somalia.
22. July 21, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed three Ethiopian and Somalian military bases in Garbhari, Bardiri, and Qansahdere cities, Gedo, and Bay, southwestern Somalia.
23. July 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed two military bases in Bulubardi City and Bariri Town, Hiran, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
24. July 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab killed 71 Somali forces in a complex operation targeting three military bases in Bulo Haji, Harbole, and Miido, Somalia.
25. July 19, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted Somali forces gathering in Bariri Town, southwestern Mogadishu, Somalia, killing and injuring more than 10 troops with an IED.
26. July 19, 2024: Al-Shabaab eliminated several Somali forces in an armed assault on a military base in Bardere City, Gedo, southwestern Somalia.
27. July 16, 2024: Al-Shabaab injured three Somalian forces in an ambush on the road between Luuq and Dolow cities, Gedo, southwestern Somalia.
28. July 16, 2024: Al-Shabaab hit the central prison in Mogadishu’s most guarded areas.
29. July 16, 2024: Al-Shabaab VBIED hit a busy restaurant near NISA center in Mogadishu. The eatery is frequented by security officials.
30. July 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab assassinated Brigade 83 Lieutenant Colonel Eidid Muhammad Abdi Gari using an IED in Janale, Lower Shabelle, southern Somalia.
31. July 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed four Ugandan, Somalian, and Ethiopian military bases in Bulumarir, Luuq, Helgan, and Bariri, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, and Hiran, Somalia.
32. July 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted Somalian forces with an IED, killing one and injuring two, in Bulobarde, Hiran, Somalia.
33. July 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab injured an officer and a commander with an IED in Weheliye, El Dher District, Galguduud, Somalia.
34. July 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab raided an Ethiopian military base in Hudur, Bakool State, Somalia, resulting in multiple deaths and injuries.
35. July 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab injured ten soldiers and destroyed a convoy with an IED in Kismayo, Lower Juba, Somalia.
36. 14 July 2024: A suicide bomber detonated explosives at a restaurant near Daljirka Dahsoon in Mogadishu’s Boondheere district, where many young people were watching the Euro 2024 match. Several casualties were reported.
37. July 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab killed at least one Somali force member and seized government weapons in an ambush near Masagaway District, Galgaduud, Somalia.
38. July 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab’s kangaroo court executed five people for spying on behalf of the United States, Somalian, and Kenyan intelligence services in Jamame, Lower Juba, Somalia.
39. July 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab killed nine, injured 20, and reported five Kenyan soldiers missing in a complex operation targeting a Kenyan military convoy in Banissa District, Mandera, Kenya.
40. July 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab double-tap armed assault targeted two Ugandan forces’ military bases in Jazeera and Lambar 50, Mogadishu, Somalia.
41. 13 July 2024: Al-Shabaab fighters reportedly engaged in fighting inside Mogadishu’s central prison in the Hamarweyn district. Situated in a heavily guarded area near key government buildings like the high court and the Ministry of Justice, the prison was rocked by heavy gunfire and explosions.
42. 11 July 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed a Ugandan military convoy in the 60 Kms district, Lower Shabelle, and also ambushed a Somalian military base in the Jazeera coastal district of Mogadishu, Somalia.
43. 11 July 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed a Kenyan military base, resulting in multiple deaths and injuries, in Damsi district, Lafi, Mandera, Northeastern Kenya.
44. 10 July 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed a Somalian military base, killing at least one, in Bardere City, Gedo, Southwestern Somalia.
45. 10 July 2024: Heavy fighting has been reported in Buula Xaaji, about 120 km northwest of Kismayo, after Al-Shabaab fighters ambushed government forces in the town. Government officials said they repelled the major attack, while Al-Shabaab claimed it killed more than 30 government soldiers and seized military vehicles.

    

46. 10 July 2024: Al-Shabaab carried out an improvised explosive device (IED) assassination attempt on a Somali forces officer in Wajid, Bakool State, Somalia.
47. 10 July 2024: Al-Shabaab captured four military vehicles in an ambush that killed over 31 Somali forces in Beled Hawo, Gedo Region, Somalia.
48. 10 July 2024: Al-Shabaab mortar shells struck a home, killing ten civilians and hospitalizing thirteen in Balow village, Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia.
49. 8 July 2024: Al-Shabaab militants targeted Ugandan forces with an improvised explosive device (IED), killing three soldiers and injuring three others in Merca, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
50. 8 July 2024: An Al-Shabaab armed assault on Kenyan forces resulted in three soldiers killed and three more injured in the area of Kamboni, Badhaadhe District, Lower Juda, Somalia.
51. 5 July 2024: At least nine government soldiers were killed in Goofgaduud town after Al-Shabaab fighters briefly seized control. Al-Shabaab claims to have killed ten government soldiers and captured prisoners of war. A senior official from the southwest confirmed that regional troops have recaptured the town.
52. 2 July 2024: An explosion targeting a security checkpoint in Mogadishu’s Kaxda district occurred earlier on Tuesday afternoon, injuring two government soldiers.

Analysis/Observations & Insights

The recent surge in attacks—ranging from ambushes and IED bombings to mortar shellings—underscores Al-Shabaab’s enduring threat and adaptability. With the planned withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) set for December 31, 2024, concerns are mounting within the African Union, the United States, and other troop-contributing nations. If ATMIS’s exit is not managed smoothly and the Somali Security Force (SSF) fails to fully assume security responsibilities, there is a high risk that Al-Shabaab will intensify its violence, destabilize the region further, and challenge the Somali government’s authority. This could lead to significant repercussions for the entire Horn of Africa, potentially fostering a government akin to the Taliban in Somalia that could undermine neighboring states hosting Somali populations.

Al-Kata’ib, the media wing of Al-Shabaab, continues to bolster its propaganda efforts by releasing videos and infographics that depict the group’s operations favorably. Recently, they released a video showcasing an attack near Bur-Hakaba district in the Bay province, aimed at demonstrating their capability and success. In the video, viewers can see the mujahideen engaging the apostate soldiers, who are shown being shot and defeated. The production quality and content of the video are designed to propagate a narrative that the terrorists are winning these battles, thereby bolstering their image and influence.

This video serves a dual purpose: it acts as propaganda to showcase the strength and success of the terrorist group and is also used for recruitment purposes. By portraying their forces as victorious and capable, the group aims to attract new recruits and garner support from sympathizers, reinforcing their position and expanding their influence.

From a counterterrorism perspective, the upcoming withdrawal of ATMIS necessitates a robust strategy to counter terrorism in Somalia and adjacent areas in Kenya. Enhanced cooperation between Somali and Kenyan security forces, improved intelligence sharing, and strengthening local response capacities are essential. The latest UN report highlights that Somalia-based al-Karrar Office remains a crucial financial node for the Islamic State network, while Al-Shabaab’s substantial finances also benefit Al-Qaeda affiliates in the region.

The recruitment of Ethiopian nationals by Somali-based militant groups, including Al-Shabaab and the Islamic State, is an escalating concern that highlights a growing threat in the region. Despite Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ assertion that the recruitment issue is under control, this development cannot be downplayed. The involvement of Ethiopian nationals in these groups not only signifies a troubling extension of their influence but also amplifies the threat they pose across borders.

This situation underscores the urgent need for a concerted and comprehensive counterterrorism effort. Effective responses must involve enhanced surveillance, intelligence-sharing, and collaborative strategies among regional and international partners. Addressing this growing threat requires not just a reactive approach but proactive measures to prevent further recruitment and mitigate the expanded influence of these militant groups in the region.

The exit of ATMIS presents a pivotal moment for regional security. A coordinated effort involving both regional and international partners is vital to address the underlying socio-economic factors driving extremism, sustain the fight against terrorism, and achieve long-term stability in Somalia and neighboring regions.

Besides, the surge in Al-Shabaab activities throughout July 2024 underscores the group’s enduring threat to security in Somalia and northeastern Kenya. The militants’ ability to conduct large-scale attacks, ambushes, and IED operations reflects a high level of coordination and sophistication. The international community, alongside local and regional forces, must continue to adapt and respond to this evolving threat to prevent further destabilization and loss of life.