In the Red Zone: Unraveling the True Cost of Inconsistencies for AU’s Somalia Counterterrorism Mission

In September 2023, a request was made to temporarily halt the withdrawal of African troops from Somalia, following the initial withdrawal of 2,000 troops in June. Hussein Sheikh Ali, the national security adviser of Somalia, presented this request to the UN Security Council (UNSC), citing ongoing terrorist attacks in the country’s south-central regions.

In May, 54 Ugandan peacekeepers from the African Union (AU) Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) were killed, and in July, 30 Somali forces soldiers died in a suicide attack at a military academy in Mogadishu. The inability of the Somali National Army and ATMIS to hold key villages in the south prompted the call for a pause.

Somalia approached the UNSC without consulting the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC). Despite ATMIS being a UN-authorized and -mandated mission, it is an AU-led mission with command and control from five African troop-contributing countries. This move raises questions about Somalia’s respect for the PSC’s role in ATMIS decision-making, viewed by some as a snub.

However, insiders from the PSC suggest that only a few members raised concerns during discussions. The PSC, in fact, strongly supported Somalia’s request in its 1177th meeting communiqué, endorsing the technical pause.

This decision by the PSC raised concerns about the council’s ability to assert itself as a pivotal and respected actor in managing African peace and security. Additionally, it revealed a lack of coordination and cohesion on the drawdown among PSC members, especially as some troop-contributing countries had already supported Somalia without first presenting the extension to the PSC.

The request from the Somali government indicates doubts about its army’s ability to provide stability. This move by troop-contributing countries and PSC members reflects a long-standing dismissal of the PSC and its role by member states, raising concerns about the future of peace support operations in the country and the region.

The drawdown of ATMIS is planned in four phases, with a full mission handover to Somali security forces expected by December 2024. However, two extensions pose a threat to achieving this timeline. In the initial phase, the Somali government sought a review of ATMIS operational timelines, leading to a technical pause for the withdrawal of 2,000 troops from December 2022 to June 2023.

Despite authorizing the reconfiguration of the AU Mission to Somalia into ATMIS, the Council continues to support delays in the mission’s withdrawal, pointing to various issues. The PSC supported technical pauses while acknowledging the financial limitations to sustain the extension.

By April, the financial deficit of ATMIS was approximately US$10.6 million due to the first technical pause in the mission’s drawdown. The AU failed to financially support the first extension despite committing to it. Insufficient finance, exacerbated by the second extension request, led the AU to allocate US$2 million from its Peace Fund to ATMIS.

These challenges, coupled with a failure to decisively commit to decisions, may have led to the sidelining of the PSC by Somali authorities, revealing inconsistencies in PSC interventions and ongoing fragmentations among its members.

The funding challenges indicate rising tensions on ATMIS between the PSC and the AU Commission (AUC). The Council continues to direct the AUC to mobilize resources for the requested extension, acknowledging regional and continental funding shortfalls in peace support operations.

UN approval for the extensions partly depends on the agreement that delays are on a no-cost basis, relieving the UN from financial responsibility to troop-contributing countries during that period. Nonetheless, the PSC has asked the AUC to secure funds for the Somali government and AU member states, directing it to collaborate with African UNSC members to finalize the draft resolution on financing AU-led operations and access to UN-assessed contributions.

The Somali government’s request reveals a lack of confidence in its army’s ability to provide stabilization. ATMIS forces have undertaken various capacity-building initiatives to enable the military to assume full responsibility for the country’s safety and security. However, repeated extensions of the mission’s mandate and revision of the operational timeline for the initial drawdown of 2,000 troops reinforce this skepticism.

Lieutenant Colonel Philippe Butoyi, the ATMIS commander, asserts that the army has demonstrated an increasing capability to secure the country. However, the government’s acknowledgment of setbacks in the fight against al-Shabaab casts doubt over its readiness to take over this security role.

Ongoing al-Shabaab offensives against the Somali army and police, coupled with forces’ retreat from previously captured areas, have exposed vulnerabilities in the military’s capabilities. Insufficient funding and al-Shabaab’s relative strength have left ATMIS forces strategically overstretched and hindered by limited equipment, such as helicopters, for decisive operations.

Despite challenges, ATMIS continues to degrade al-Shabaab through joint targeted and routine operations. It also secures population centers, key government institutions, major supply routes, seaports, airports, and airfields, ensuring the safe delivery of humanitarian aid to remote areas and communities in need.

Support for the army through firepower and training, among other measures, is insufficient to necessitate a drawdown in December 2024. The mission should only draw down if the military meets its requirement to generate force in numbers and capacity to sustain troops to degrade al-Shabaab. The AU should also facilitate the role of neighboring countries in this effort.

Short of meeting these conditions, adhering to the set timelines for the drawdown will reverse gains of recent years, with detrimental implications for Somalia and the broader Horn of Africa. It will also cast continued doubt over the AU’s role in managing peace and security in Africa.

To prevent future sidelining and bolster its position, the AU must call out attempts to diminish its role and demonstrate its capacity in addressing peace and security concerns. Enhanced cooperation among the Somali government, troop-contributing countries, the AU, and other partners is essential to address emerging weaknesses and avoid perpetuating inconsistencies in decisions, particularly in situations like the Somali request.

NOTABLES

1. International Cooperation:
   • The technical pause in the African troop drawdown from Somalia demonstrates a coordinated effort involving various international bodies, such as the UN Security Council (UNSC), the African Union (AU), and troop-contributing countries, to address ongoing terrorism challenges in the region.
2. AU Mission Commitment:
   • The AU’s commitment to the mission in Somalia, as evidenced by the support for the technical pause and financial allocations despite challenges, reflects a collective dedication to counterterrorism efforts and stability in the Horn of Africa.
3. Regional Support:
   • Despite challenges and financial constraints, neighboring countries, including Kenya, which is actively involved in counterterrorism efforts, continue to contribute to regional security, indicating a broader commitment to stability in East Africa.
4. Strategic Operations:
   • The African Union Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) conducts joint targeted and routine operations, securing key areas such as population centers, government institutions, and supply routes. This showcases strategic efforts to combat terrorist activities and protect critical infrastructure.
5. Humanitarian Aid Delivery:
   • ATMIS ensures the safe delivery of humanitarian aid to remote areas and communities in need. This reflects a comprehensive approach to addressing not only security concerns but also the well-being of the affected populations.
6. Capacity Building:
   • ATMIS focuses on capacity-building initiatives for the Somali National Army, aiming to empower them to assume responsibility for the country’s safety and security. This signifies a long-term strategy to enhance local capabilities in the fight against terrorism.
7. International Support for Financing:
   • Despite financial challenges, the AU seeks international support and engages with the UN to secure funds for the Somali government and member states, indicating a collective effort to address economic obstacles in sustaining counterterrorism operations.
8. Commitment to Peace Support Operations:
   • The Peace and Security Council (PSC) supports technical pauses while recognizing financial limitations, underscoring a commitment to maintaining peace support operations and addressing challenges collectively.
9. AU’s Role Assertion:
   • The AU, despite challenges and potential sidelining, asserts its role in addressing peace and security concerns. It calls for international attention to attempts diminishing its role, emphasizing the importance of a unified approach.
10. Recognition of Set Timelines:
    • The commitment to set timelines for the ATMIS drawdown indicates a strategic approach, emphasizing the importance of achieving stability within a defined timeframe and preventing a protracted military presence.
11. Regional Impact:
    • The positive strides in counterterrorism efforts in Kenya and Somalia have regional implications, contributing to a more stable East Africa and potentially reducing the spillover effects of terrorism across borders.
12. Enhanced Cooperation:
    • The article underscores the need for closer cooperation among the Somali government, troop-contributing countries, the AU, and other partners, signaling a recognition of the importance of a collaborative approach to effectively address emerging weaknesses and inconsistencies in decision-making.