Kenya
Kenya boasts as a market-based economy and the most liberal economic system in East Africa. A market-based system, among its other advantages. Kenya has emerged in recent years as one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The overall performance of the East Africa region to a great extent depend on what happens in Kenya, thus its security, political and economic outlook matter significantly in the region.
- The country is secure. Security multi-agencies (NPS, NIS & Military) vigilant. Counterterrorism operations remains largely robust especially along the border prefectures with Somalia.
- Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki toured of Mandera, Marsabit to assess security situation.
- He was taken through what the front operating teams go through to fight the militants operating there.
- The national government plans to involve police reservists in terror-prone areas of northern Kenya in fighting terrorism as per Interior Cabinet Secretary.
- The border prefecture has borne the brunt of repeated, sporadic attacks from the militants who are at times aided by residents.
- Research by government security agencies shows about 30 per cent of the country’s security problems are traced to the porous Somalia border often penetrated by terrorists.
- Others include, cases of radicalism and violent extremism and inter-ethnic clashes.
- There are cases of cattle rustling in the Marsabit that need immediate security intervention.
- Opposition leader Raila Odinga has vowed to press on with his anti-government rallies even as National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) pressure mount on him to call them off.
- Opposition leader announced the next round of rallies starting with Kibra, his political backyard even as the National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) warned that the events were causing tension in the country.
- The commission warned that those who address the rallies will be held responsible for their utterances underscoring that the rallies as well as demonstrations risk polarising the country.
- The international community is also keen on what is happening in Kenya and relationship with the international community is sensitive to things that destabilise peace and cohesion in the country.
- The opposition rallies that were held recently saw a spike in hate speech and misinformation, a move likely to get out of hand if unchecked.
- On Sunday, February 5, 2023, opposition in a statement reiterated that they will hold a Baraza at the Kamukunji grounds in Kibra Constituency that will be followed by another Baraza on Friday February 10, 2023, this time in Mavoko, Machakos County.
- The body choosing Kenya’s election commission is being overhauled in an effort that could strengthen democracy. However, opposition is against the process of appointing members to the electoral commission.
- Kenyans are demanding a conducive environment to allow them to rebuild their livelihoods. Disrupting peace and cohesion will derail the positive gains that we have achieved as a country. Kenya’s economy is the biggest in the region primarily because of the country’s political stability.
- According to recent IMF report, Kenya’s GDP is projected to record a slower growth of 2.4% this year due to the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic, drought, election jitters, and disruption of global supply chains. The IMF predicts that Kenya’s GDP will reach $117.6 billion this year, behind Angola. Despite this slower growth, Kenya’s economy is still one of the top economies to watch in the region.
In conclusion, Kenya remains a vibrant and promising economy in East Africa, the discovery of significant oil reserves and the development of the country’s tourism industry have the potential to drive economic growth in the future.
Somalia
Somalia is one of the most conflicted and poorly-governed countries in the region. The Al-Qaeda terrorists Al-Shabaab based in the country persistently pose a security threat to the Horn of Africa nation. The fight against Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group affiliated with Al-Qaeda, remains a major focus of the Somali government.
- The leaders of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia met Wednesday in the Somali capital to discuss the ongoing fight against the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab militants. The countries contribute troops to the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia, ATMIS.
- Kenya’s President William Ruto on Feb 1 headed to Somalia’s Capital Mogadishu for a joint Heads of State and Government summit convened by his East African counterpart Hassan Mohamud as part of efforts to strengthen regional security cooperation and tackle violent extremism in the region.
- Also, military and defense leaders from countries in the Horn of Africa, including Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Djibouti, often hold meetings to discuss regional security issues, including the fight against Al-Shabaab. These meetings provide an opportunity for these countries to coordinate their efforts and strategies in their fight against terrorism, as well as to share information and intelligence. The ongoing crackdown against al-Shabaab is a high priority for these countries, as the group continues to pose a serious threat to regional security and stability.
- The security summit took place amid an offensive by Somalia and its coalition allies against the Islamist militants. Somalia in the past year has won significant victories against the group, which has also increased its counterattacks.
- Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti simply need to cooperate especially on the conventional or counterinsurgency battle against Al-Shabaab inside Somalia. It is about investigating, identifying and disrupting Al-Shabaab’s networks of financiers, facilitators and active supporters across the entire region.
- The summit and the leaders of the four countries noted that they had agreed to establish a joint coordination mechanism and jointly plan a decisive operational strategy against the Islamist militants.
- With the support of ATMIS, the Somali National Army (SNA) and allied clan militias have taken the lead in a major offensive operation against Al-Shabaab since June 2022. The US Africa Command has also supported the operation with air strikes targeting the group. Furthermore, recent media reports indicate that Türkiye has deployed its Bayraktar TB2 attack drones to provide strike capability and reconnaissance support to the offensive operations.
- The Somali government has sent thousands of military recruits to nearby countries for training to strengthen the army for its war against al-Shabab militants, according to the national security adviser for the Somali president. Somalia has sent 3,000 soldiers each to Eritrea and Uganda in the past few weeks and an additional 6,000 recruits will be sent to Ethiopia and Egypt.
- As Somalia National Army prepares to take over the country’s security, the Somalia want to complete training of 15,000 SNA troops by 2023.
- Somalia has been in a state of crisis for decades, with civil war, famine, poverty, and displacement plaguing its people. The root cause of many of these issues is the rampant corruption that has been entrenched in the country for decades. Corruption in the country has led to a decaying infrastructure, an inability to provide basic services to its citizens.
- Corruption in Somalia is a complex and pervasive problem that has had a dramatic and negative impact on the country’s economic development. It is a major contributor to Somalia’s lack of stability and its ongoing crisis. Despite persistent challenges, there has been progress made in recent years to address Somalia’s corruption crisis.
- President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud notes Somalia’s factions can find peace, political Islam need not be violent and democracy can grow. According to the President, Somalia is not just a story of violence and state failure, rather should focus building their country based on their strengths.
- Current offensive operations against Al-Shabaab are a key issue for UNSC. Council members may welcome the progress made in these operations and underscore the need to consolidate the security gains through the implementation of the Somalia Transition Plan (STP) and the National Security Architecture (NSA), which have been developed to facilitate the gradual handover of security responsibilities to the Somali security forces.
- The other major issue that could draw the attention of Council members is the growing tension between the Somali federal government and some of the federal member states, which could undermine the recent progress on the security front. Council members may, therefore, encourage Somali political stakeholders to ease tensions and resolve differences through dialogue.
- The dire humanitarian situation in Somalia continues to be a major concern. A possible option is to invite a representative from OCHA to brief the Council on the current situation and the ongoing relief efforts.
- The presence of oil in Somaliland has been confirmed by a recent exploration. The discovery has raised the stakes in Somaliland’s claim for independence from Somalia as it holds the potential for a new stream of revenue for the semi-autonomous state. But the oil exploration is deepening the rift with Somalia, which claims sovereignty over the region.
Ethiopia
Eritrean troops are still in Ethiopia although they have moved back the border, contradicting Ethiopian authorities who say the Eritreans have already left. Eritrean troops fought alongside the Ethiopian military and allied militias in the two-year conflict that pitted the Ethiopian government against rebellious forces in the northern region of Tigray.
- In November 2022, however, the Ethiopia government and the Tigray forces signed an agreement to end the hostilities. That agreement mandated the withdraw of all foreign forces from Tigray.
- Improved security in Ethiopia’s Tigray region since a November ceasefire has allowed aid to reach some previously inaccessible areas, but humanitarian needs remain urgent, according to the International Committee of the Red Cross.
- However, its notable humanitarian access in the north continues to improve in Afar, Amhara, and Tigray regions, but some pockets remain hard to reach. In the southern and eastern parts of Ethiopia, the historic drought that has gripped the wider Horn of Africa continues. At least 17 million people need urgent food, water, health and agriculture humanitarian support, among other assistance.
- Unidentified assailants attacked a group of nine Chinese nationals in Gebre Guracha, Oromia Region, Jan. 30, leaving one person dead. The motive for the shooting remains unclear. While no group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack, Oromo Liberation Army-Shane (OLF-S) militants are likely to have carried out the attack. Gebre Guracha is located about 160 km (99 miles) northwest of the capital Addis Ababa.
- OLF-S remains a major threat in eastern and western Oromia, Benishangul Gumuz, and Southwest and East Shewa zones (Amhara Region) surrounding Addis Ababa. These groups have reportedly attacked government officials and civilians in the past. OLF-S split from the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) after the latter chose to exercise peaceful political opposition against the ruling party.
- In a recent report by International Monetary Fund – IMF, Ethiopia on top 5 spot of the world’s fastest-growing economies alongside Angola, Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa. Ethiopia could clinch the fourth-largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, according to the IMF. This is due to the easing of armed conflict in the nation and the continuation of ambitious economic reform efforts aimed at opening up one of Africa’s fastest-growing but most closed economies. The IMF predicts Ethiopia’s GDP will reach $126.2 billion this year, expanding by 13.5%. This is an impressive figure, and Ethiopia’s economy will likely continue to grow in the coming years
Djibouti
Djibouti is a small country located in the Horn of Africa, and has a complex security, political, and economic scenario. Djibouti is faced with security challenges, including piracy in the Gulf of Aden and regional terrorism threats. The country hosts several foreign military bases, including from the United States, China, France, and Japan, which has contributed to its stability.
- Djibouti has a presidential system of government and the current president, Ismail Omar Guelleh, has been in power since 1999. The country has faced criticism for its limited political freedoms and human rights abuses, and the opposition is often suppressed.
- The country has a predominantly service-based economy, with a focus on trade and transportation. The country serves as a hub for regional trade and is strategically located near major shipping lanes. Despite its economic potential, Djibouti faces challenges such as high poverty levels, high unemployment, and high levels of debt. The government is working to attract foreign investment and diversify the economy.
- Overall, while Djibouti’s strategic location and the presence of foreign military bases have helped stabilize the country, it continues to face security, political, and economic challenges. The military bases in Djibouti play an important role in the region, particularly in terms of security and counterterrorism efforts.
- The country is strategically located near the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial waterway for international trade and commerce, and is also near the Gulf of Aden, which is known for piracy and other security threats. As a result, several foreign countries, including China, the United States, France, and Japan, have established military bases in Djibouti to enhance their presence in the region and support their national security interests.
- The military bases in Djibouti also provide a platform for regional counterterrorism operations and humanitarian aid and disaster relief efforts. For example, US forces based in Djibouti have played a key role in supporting operations against Al-Shabaab in Somalia and have provided support to regional partners in the fight against terrorism.
In conclusion, the military bases in Djibouti serve as a symbol of the country’s strategic significance in the region, providing a platform for security and counterterrorism operations and supporting the interests of foreign powers in the region.
