Mid-February 2022, the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat al-Shabaab al Mujahideen conducted multiple coordinated attacks in the capital Mogadishu targeting security forces stations. In the initial attack, police stations were completely destroyed overnight. Weapons and vehicles were captured and driven out of the capital. Ghastly images of the damage was parlayed via the terrorist organizations media outlets. Another coordinated attack was conducted approximately a week after. It involved hurling of grenades at the security stations in the capital, an early indicator of resumption of indiscriminate attacks in the restive administrative capital.
The eyes of the world didn’t focus on these events as usual, perhaps the conflict in Europe where Russia is gradually invading Ukraine as NATO lamely sanctions Moscow obscured the line of sight. Throughout January and February 2022, there is a significant terrorism surge in Somalia and along the Kenyan border. The Al-Qaeda affiliate has demonstrated its capabilities and coordinated networks across Somalia and along the Kenyan border by conducting multiple and different types of terror attacks. The use of roadside improvised explosive devices (R-IED) dominated the terror group’s tactics while ambushing security forces on patrols or operations came second. In Kenya, the group attacked civilian’s at their homes in Lamu while an R-IED killed several passengers in Mandera. The terror group targeted security forces operating along the border further demonstrating its capacity had been rebuilt.
Data by https://eactdatabase.org/ shows that, over the years, the terrorist group wages violent campaigns during the holy Ramadan period and the month after (Period between April and June of every year). What has been observed and recorded early this year is a precursor of what the group intends to pursue in the rainy season. The attacks in January and February are more like practical dry-runs and since the group suffered low-casualties in theater, the group could build on them to optimize subsequent attacks.
Successful attacks inside the capital Mogadishu signals a significant return to the past and perhaps a permeable security architecture if not outbid one. The terror group’s networks once controlled the now sprawling city and wouldn’t mind to make a final comeback. While the group controls the city business and underworld, the physical administration is not far away either despite bitter rivalry with Abnaa ul Calipha the Islamic States Terrorist group affiliate in Somalia. If not checked, these surges will be consolidated as small success that’ll make the group bold and socio-politically amiable to vulnerable public in Somalia.
