Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of April 1st – April 9th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Al-Qaeda affiliates are strengthening in Africa. In East Africa, Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda’s affiliate with its home-base in Somalia has spiked up attacks back at home and sporadically targeting Kenya’s frontier regions bordering Somalia.

Political impasse in Somalia continues. A series of meetings between Federal Government of Somalia and Regional States have collapsed. Member State leadership have blamed the current stalemate aimed at resolving the much-delayed elections on the outgoing President Abdullahi Farmajo who allegedly any available means to frustrate the process.

The Islamists Al-Shabaab on the other hand, exploiting the much-stretched security assets to wage more attacks from across the regions of Somalia. In the past nine days of April, increased Al-Shabaab activities have been witnessed. The group’s propaganda media, the Al-Kataib has released videos aimed at boosting morale of its fighters to take on operations. The videos also viewed as package with instructional message on group’s commanders and fighters to prepare for more operations as the Holy month of Ramadhan closes in. More suicide missions, ambushes expected during this period.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) forecast that, in near future, the Al-Qaeda’s Al-Shabaab is highly likely expected to face competition in the jihadist circles citing shift in jihadist destinations and appeal. The Islamic State has also penetrated the region and that why possibly the jihadist group has upscaled attacks besides promoting and exaggerating the outcomes of its operations to appeal to its followers.

In the period under review, Al-Shabaab has claimed at least 11 attacks. Tens attacks have been recorded from across the regions of Somalia with one attack being recorded for Kenya.

For Kenya, terror activities have decreased due to greater multi-agency action and community engagement. Focusing on security issues to counter violent extremism is a step in the right direction. The government and relevant count terrorism agencies should invest more in non-security approaches to fighting and stemming down violent extremism.

AS Recently Claimed/Recorded Activities April 1^st – April 9^th

• On April 1^st, Men armed with pistols shot dead Puntland intelligence officer identified as Umar Mahamud (Qudhuu) in Somalia’s Galkayo town. Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility of the attack. 
• On April 3^rd, Al-Shabaab fighters claim to have killed 47 Somali govt soldiers, seized 6 army vehicles, following a dawn raid on Bariire military base near Mogadishu. Car bomb attack hits a Somalia military convoy from Mogadishu while travelling in the outskirt of Afgoye town heading to Bariire army base.
• On April 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted a SNA convoy at Lafoole area of Lower Shabelle. Local sources reports indicate that SNA chief General Odowa Yusuf Rage was traveling in the convoy of the reinforcement troops hit by the explosion at Lafoole area while rushing to the bases in Barire and Awdhegle that came had under Al-Shabab attack earlier.
• On April 3^rd, Al-Shabaab fighters claim responsibility for storming army bases in Janale, Sabiid and Anole villages. Casualties reported as per local sources.
• on April 3^rd, an Al-Shabaab operative detonated an improvised explosive device (IED) near kiosks in Shingani district in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, killing at least six people. Four other people were wounded.
• On April 4^th, Al-Shabaab claim attacks on SNA military base in Mahaday district of Middle Shabelle region. Casualties reported.
• on April 5^th, Al-Shabaab detonated an IED targeting a convoy of Kenyan troops traveling near the Somali-Kenyan border toward southeastern Kenya’s Lamu County.
• On April 6^th, A senior SNA military officer reportedly survived an assassination attempt after an IED attack in Mogadishu’s Kaaraan district. At least two of his guards were wounded in the blast as per local sources.
• On April 6^th, Al-Shabaab militants clashed with Ethiopian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces near a military base in Hudur district in central Somalia’s Bakool region.
• On April 7^th, Federal security forces clash with Al-Shabaab militants in the vicinity of Dhusamareeb town, Galmudug State, Somalia. No immediate reports of casualties.
• On April 8^th, At least 2 soldiers were killed several others wounded after al-Shabaab militants attacked a security checkpoint outside the town of Mahaday, Middle Shabelle region as per local sources.  Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the assault, saying its fighters bombed military targets and then engaged in a gunfight with Somali soldiers.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

Repeats attacks witnessed especially in central and southern regions of Somalia. Al-Shabaab continue to target Ethiopian AMISOM military base in Hudur district. Early March, Al-Shabaab had stormed the same military base. Burundian military bases, Somali army bases have also witnessed a couple of repeat attacks in the first quarter of 2021.

Al-Shabaab has released approximately 34-minute video showcasing its ‘successful’ attacks against local and foreign troops. The video promoted on various Al-Shabaab’s affiliated online platforms showcases militant’s operations in Bosaso, Puntland, Middle Shabelle, Bakool and Lower regions of Somalia. At least three operations targeted SNA makeshift camps and one on a Burundian operated military base.

Al-Shabaab also published and promoted footage from its attack on a Somali National Army (SNA) base in Barire in southern Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region on April 3. The photos depicted militants setting military vehicles and buildings on fire. They also showed the bodies of Turkish-trained SNA soldiers. The vibrant Al-Shabaab’s propaganda media, by promoting the group’s successes on Barire-SNA military base is a warfare strategy aimed at portraying the government forces as weak despite receiving support from foreign troops.

Its tactical that Al-Shabaab launched a vehicle-borne suicide bomb attack on the Bariire base while simultaneously attacking the nearby Awdheegle base with a car bomb and fighters, to prevent troops stationed there from reinforcing Bariire.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) warns that Al-Shabaab video on overrunning SNA Barire FOB is a coded instructional video full of instructions to commanders and foot soldiers. The video has been released some few days to the start of the Holy month of Ramadhan. S.I. warns of a possible bloodiest of all Ramadhan especially in regions of Somalia and that all concerned counterterrorism assets should up their countermeasures/operations to avert and preempt this very imminent Ramadhan threat. Threat levels cannot however be ruled-out on Kenya’s frontier counties neighboring Somalia. Kenyan intelligence assets continues to warn of embed local cells within the local communities in NEP counties and Lamu coastal county.

Local sources also report that Hassan Dahir Aweys, a former senior Al-Shabaab leader who is in the hands of the Somali government continue to be a mouthpiece of the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab. Reports indicate that Aweys has shared a multi-faceted video about Al-Shabaab latest attack on Barire and Awdheegle military base that killed over a dozen soldiers. By promoting Shabaab’s activity online only is an indication that Aweys still supports the heinous acts of terrorists.

Geopolitics in Somalia continue to worsen. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) held a preliminary meeting with Somali state presidents in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, on April 7 to set an agenda for federal presidential elections. The FGS and state presidents failed to agree on an agenda during a meeting in Mogadishu on April 3 with outgoing President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo allegedly frustrating all the pre-election talks.

Despite the lull witnessed in Kenya’s volatile prefectures, the threat by the militant group intent to strike on Kenyan soil remains unchanged. Kenya is also one among East Africa’s most vulnerable countries when it comes to violent extremism and radicalisation. Both state and non-state actors have taken many measures to prevent these phenomena, particularly among the youth in Kenya’s north-east and coastal regions. Overall, though, interventions to deal with terrorism have remained largely unchanged for a decade.

Conclusion

As East Africa region usher in Ramadhan period, counterterrorism actors urged to remain vigilant by stepping-up on surveillance, scouting and patrolling on their Areas of Responsibility (AoR). Increased surveillance both ground and airborne should increased on the proximal of all military operating bases to timely pick on enemy signatures

Sharing of intelligence tip-off with various military intelligence units in Somalia and broader East Africa. For Kenya, there is an urgent need for sustained after action review (AAR) especially around the defense posts to avert surprise/ambush raid during the period of Ramadhan.

Threat levels are always skewed towards defense positions. Target remains on military bases and convoys. Others such as shopping malls, hotels and public service vehicles remains possible Shabaab targets during this Holy month. The militant group continue to deploy small army units to avoid movement detection. IEDs and ambush raids remain top preferred attack types by the militants.

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