Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of December 4th – December 11th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

In Summary

Counter Terrorism actors in East Africa region should remain on high alert during this last quarter of 2020 as all indicators point out that threat from terrorism has not been diminished by the global pandemic, despite the Covid-19 lockdown continuing to reduce the number of terrorism-related arrests.

Now that East Africa countries have moved out of the tightest lockdown restrictions into a busy shopping period in the run-up to Christmas, members of the public from individual countries urged to join the police, security staff and retail workers in a collective community effort to minimise the chance of attack especially in the busy shopping malls, entertainment joints among other crowded public places.

In the past seven days, Al-Shabaab militant group has claimed more than twenty attacks all recorded from the Horn Africa, Somalia. Nearly all of the attacks have been skewed towards military bases and also their convoys. No major event has been recorded on Kenya, another target of Al-Shabaab. None the less, this lull should not be misconstrued that the terror threat is no more, thus appropriate CT measures need to be put in place as Christmas festivities draws closer to pick on the possible enemy signatures especially on the busy coastal regions.

Recently Claimed Attacks (December 4^th – December 11^th)

• On December 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked AMISOM positions in Abdullah Biroole town, Lower Juba and also on AMISOM’s Ugandan troops in Lower Shabelle. Corresponding local reports indicate that, those attacks were successfully thwarted. No casualties were reported.
• On December 6^th, Heavy attacks reported on foreign military bases and SNA bases in the southern and central regions of Somalia. An attack in Awdheegle, Lower Shabelle killed at least five Somali government soldiers trained at a Turkish military academy base in Mogadishu.
• On December 6^th, Separate attacks reported targeting AMISOM’s Djiboutian troops’ base in Hiran region of Somalia. No casualties were reported.
• On December 7^th, Heavy clashes reported in one of the neighborhoods of the capital Mogadishu. Heavy fighting reported in the vicinity of a SNA base at Heila Barise, Yaqshid district, Mogadishu. Heavy gun fire reported.
• On December 7^th, Al-Shabaab fighters ambush-raid US-trained Somali forces based in the village of Sabid, on the outskirts of Afgoye district in Lower Shabelle from several directions. No casualties were reported.
• On December 8^th, Al Shabaab militants attacked a Somali National Army (SNA) station in Yaqshid district in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. No major fatalities were reported. Theis is the second attacks in barely 48hrs.          
• On December 8^th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked an Ethiopian military base in Wajid district in southwestern Somalia’s Bakool region. No casualties were reported.
• On December 8^th, Al-Shabaab hit an AMISOM logistics convoy in an area lying between Shalambod and Danow of Lower Shabelle, Southwest State of Somalia. The convoy was first stopped on its tracks by a roadside bomb closely followed with another. Al-Shabaab through its propaganda media claimed the twin blasts killed three Ugandan soldiers.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab fighters ambushed SNA convoy in central Somalia. At least six soldiers were killed and wounded three, three other officers reportedly missing. The attack took place on a semi-forest road near Balanbale town in Galgadud region.
• On December 9^th, At least four soldiers have been killed and several injured in a suspected Al-Shabaab raid at a security checkpoint outside Somali capital. Suspected Al-Shabaab armed gunmen stormed the checkpoint in Wanlaweyn town of Lower Shabelle region, prompting fighting with Southwest state forces.
• On December 9^th, Multiple attacks reported in Mogadishu in the evening: Al-Shabaab Militants armed with RPGs & machine guns attacked security checkpoint near Ali Kamin junction.
• On December 9^th, in another attack, Bomb blast targets police forces in Kaaraan district.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab militant’s grenade attack in Wardhigley district targeted Somali security forces. Casualties were reported.
• On December 9^th, Al-Shabaab attempted attack on AMISOM troops in Somalia’s Kulbiyow town, successfully repulsed. Al-Shabaab retreated into the thickets. No casualties were reported.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab Shari’a court in Tayeglow town in Somalia’s Bakool region, executes a 70-year-old man by firing squad on claims of being a “sorcerer”.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab fighters overrun the town of Milxo, outside the Coastal city of Laasqoray in the Sanaag region of Somalia. The militants also reportedly abducted the local Mayor identified as Mohamed Jama. All telephone lines in the town taken down by Al-Shabaab after seizing the town as per local sources.
• On December 10^th, Al-Shabaab claim attack in Bosaso, Bari region of northern Somalia. An explosion on the road between Af-Urur and Bosaso caused casualties to Puntland forces. Initial reports from local sources indicate that at least four soldiers were injured in the blasts and the vehicle was damaged.
• On December 11^th, Somalia’s Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed six Ethiopian soldiers in an attack on army base in Burdhubo town of Gedo region in close quarter gun battle.
• On December 11^th, the AMISOM military base in in El Baraf, Middle Shabelle region attacked. Initial reports indicate that the military base operated by AMISOM’s Burundian troops was attacked with heavy mortar shells.
• On December 11^th, Al Shabaab fighters last night launched heavy attacks on Ethiopian military bases in Halgan area of ​​Hiran region. No casualties were reported.
• On December 11^th, The Djiboutian military base in Bula Burde district in Hiran region was also attacked but no casualties were reported from the attack.

Observations/Insights

Fears of Al-Shabab attacks rise ahead of Somalia’s February 2021 elections. State of Somalia security remain in a balance in a much-anticipated coalition troops withdrawal from the country which has battled the Al-Shabaab militancy for more than a decade.

Amid the bickering and political infighting ahead of the now-delayed polls, Aal-Shabab, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Somali extremist group, is likely to take advantage of this volatile political situation. However, early the week US conducted an airstrike in Somalia killing eight terror operatives. AFRICOM confirmed of the airstrike in Somalia and noted its troops repositioning, US will continue to support Somalia.

At the height of its power, in around 2010, Al-Shabab controlled nearly all of southern and central Somalia. A major offensive by troops from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) from 2011 until 2015 saw many of the towns and cities occupied by the militants captured and liberated, but Al-Shabaab still controls large swaths of territory, including major roads and supply routes. The Islamists militant group continues to destabilize the federal government by carrying out attacks, bombings and assassination campaigns against security forces, government officials and civilians targets persistently. According to a UN report, its attacks have become more lethal in recent years, as the group has acquired the capacity to manufacture its own homemade explosives.

There are troubling indicators that Al-Shabaab could further intensify its attacks in the coming days and weeks, as it did in the lead-up to the 2016 elections. Resumption of large-scale attacks have been witnessed in recent past weeks. The militant group already has carried out a number of notable attacks in the capital, Mogadishu, including a suicide bombing at Gelato Devino, a popular ice cream parlor near the international airport, on Nov. 27. The blast killed at least seven people and wounded 10 others. In central Somali town of Ba’adweyne, in the Mudug region, l-Shabaab fighters overran a SNA military base on Nov. 30, killing at least 20 soldiers and 11 locals. This trend has persistently been noted in our reviews. SNA and AMISOM targets continue to be ambushed by the Islamist militants.

Ahead of the February 2021 polls, Al-Shabaab appears determined not only to disrupt the process through violent means, but also to steer the course of the elections possibly to its favor. Citing some local media reports, the group is believed to be fielding candidates who are aligned with its extremist ideology. This should not be hard to achieve in Somalia’s highly corrupt electoral system. The group also relies on violent intimidation to suppress participation in the elections.  For example, in July 2019, the militant group summoned all clan elders and delegates in its areas of control who participated in the 2016 election and ordered them to repent publicly or face consequences.

Conclusion

Securing the upcoming elections should be a top priority for Somalia. All stakeholders, including AMISOM, Somali security forces and the federal and regional governments, must work together to contain the threat of Al-Shabab’s interference and possible manipulation.

Counterterrorism to remain on high alert during this period Christmas festivities. Members of public also urged to collaborate with security agencies in their respective areas. Security also need to be stepped up in crowded areas, public beaches, shopping malls, public service vehicles stations and also in churches and mosques.