Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of October 1st – October 9th: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab remains one of the most capable and lethal terror groups in Africa, according to the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) noting that the Islamist militant group continue to threaten the interests of Somalia’s  and that of its allies in relentless attacks which targets security forces and civilians within East Africa.

Upscaled militant’s activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters especially in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Gedo and Hiiran have become persistent regions of Somalia targeted by Al-Shabaab. Al-Shabaab is taking advantage of thicket vegetations and geography of these regions to stage guerilla ambush and IEDs along the major routes used by both local and foreign troops. Targeted assassinations and suicide missions steadily resuming in Somalia regions. One notable attack, the militants deployed a female suicide bomber in one district of Mogadishu targeting a senior government officer and his bodyguards.

Despite significant decline of the large-scale attacks, the militant group has, however, increased use of Vehicle-Born Improvised Explosives Devices VBIEDs when waging attacks especially on military bases. However, ambush attacks are also become deadly on military vases and their convoys. Previously, the group mainly relied on IEDs, which they usually implant along major supply routes.

In the first nine days of October, the Al-Qaeda aligned Islamists Al-Shabaab have claimed at least 15 attacks, 13 in the horn of African nation and at least two in Kenya’s northeastern prefectures as recorded below.

Recently Claimed Attacks (October 1^st – October 9^th)

• On October 1^st, An Al-Shabaab female suicide bomber blew herself-up at the Black Sea junction of Howlwadag district, Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the bomber targeted a police station. One senior officer was killed alongside his two bodyguards.
• On October 2^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed a surprise attack on an AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops (ENDF) based at Bardheere airport, Gedo region of Somalia. No casualties were reported in the brief raid.
• On October 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of IED attack that targeted a convoy carrying supplies to troops in Awdheengle district of Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that there were casualties. Al-Shabaab media that usually exaggerates on number of casualties reported to have killed nine Turkish trained-SNA soldiers and burnt a supplies truck.
• On October 4^th, Al-Shabaab low-scale raid on AMISOM base operated by Burundian troops between Bala’d and Jowhar of Middle Shabelle region repulsed. Two wounded in the raid.
• On October 4^th, The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab attempted attacks on AMISOM military bases in Tabto and Abdalla Birole, Lower Juba region of Somalia successfully thwarted. The militants have previously attempted to probe the same military bases persistently, firing artillery shells from a distance. Troops have swiftly responded prompting the militants to retreat, fleeing into the thickets. No casualties were reported.
• On October 5^th, Al-Shabaab militants targeted SNA military base in an ambush attack in the vicinity of Bala’d, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. Two government soldiers reportedly killed, two others wounded and a military vehicle burnt.
• On October 6^th, Al-Shabaab fired mortar shells at an airstrip in Dhusamareb, Galguduud region in central region of Somalia on Tuesday night. No Casualties were reported in a brief attack that did not affect operations of the airport.
• On October 6^th, at around 1140hrs approximately 20 Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a Kenyan patrol team near Sheikh Barrow, between Fino and Elwak Mandera. The troops swiftly responded killing 7 Al-Shabaab militants, one member of the patrol team was slightly injured.
• On October 6^th, Al-Shabaab militants attempted to hijack and subsequently kill non-locals traveling in Makka Public Service Bus at around 1130Hrs between Wajir and Elwak. Driver of the bus managed to speed off saving lives.  Reports indicate five (1 female and 4 males) suffered slight injuries and are in good condition.
• On October 6^th, At least 3 people were killed and 8 others wounded when suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen in army uniform opened fire on vehicle with civilians in the capital Mogadishu.
• On October 7^th, Al-Shabaab destroyed on valuable equipment and lorries including tractors of private construction company called Istanbul Co. after briefly seizing military checkpoints near Jazeera beach outside the capital Mogadishu.
• On October 7^th, At least 6 SNA soldiers killed and 4 others injured after Roadside bomb targets their vehicle while traveling near Bal’ad town, Middle Shabelle, about 30km north of the Somalia capital Mogadishu. Balad district commissioner narrowly escaped assassination attempt.
• On October 7^th, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a Somali a military base near Jazeera beach outside the Mogadishu. Corresponding reports confirmed of heavy exchange fire between warring sides. 3 SNA troops wounded.
• On October 8^th, An IED explodes at SNA operated base in Afgoye town, Lower Shabelle. No casualties reported after an explosion from IED. Initial reports indicate that Somali government security forces were the target.
• On October 8^th, At least three people were injured after a hand grenade hurled at a restaurant exploded, in Kismayo of Lower Jubba region. The Somalia-based terrorist group, Al-Shabaab, claimed responsibility for the Thursday night attack through online propaganda channels.

Assessments/Observations

The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab has proved adept at transforming itself into an agile and adaptive guerrilla force that has developed brutally sophisticated homemade bombs, including improvised explosives devices (IEDs) which repeatedly have been used targeting local and coalition partner troops in Somalia. Various IEDs forms have remain the groups preferred attack types though ambush raids are significantly on the rise in the war-torn Somalia.

Al-Shabaab effectively deploys IEDs coordinated attacks on both civilian and military targets, blockades to disrupt access, devises sophisticated extortion generating schemes, and utilizes intimidation tactics to afford itself indomitability status aimed at destabilizing Somalia and threatening neighboring countries especially Kenya in what is seen as retaliation for contributing troops to AMISOM.

Al-Shabaab has not been defeated politically and socially in central and southern Somalia where the group continues to fight to maintain control. The group exploits clan’s politics and dynamics as it seeks support and subsequently establish new territories. Al-Shabaab engagements with locals in the named regions is also worrying. In a number of occasions, organized events and promoted by group’s media wing are become so common and could attract fertile grounds for recruitment and indoctrination.

The competition of interests provides space for Al-Shabaab. CT actors to up their strategies to counter Al-Shabaab citing the group undoubtedly might exploit this period of politicking, as Somalia Presidential election draws close.

Kenya counterterrorism assets to remain on high alert citing the crisis that has been brought forth by COVID-19 is decline and subsequently more targets will become available. Its notable of the group’s objective to mount attacks especially targeting non-locals of the Kenya’s northeastern prefectures. Security to be upscaled especially on public service vehicles plying various routes in broader Kenya’s NEP.

Insight and Conclusion

Notable, central and southern regions of Somalia have been persistent theaters of confrontations between Al-Shabaab and coalition forces. The militants continue to stage ambush attacks on military bases and their convoys, taking advantage of thick vegetation to lay IEDs on MSRs which have also become a frequent norm.

Al-Shabaab is a prime example in the Al-Qaeda movement’s stubborn resiliency, with estimated 5,000 to 7,000 fighters in Somalia. However, its numbers significantly also coming down citing the group also loses hundreds of its fighters in theater. The militant group has suffered leadership blows, loss of territory and revenue besides attrition of its fighters, but keeps on fighting and escalating and expanding its operations.

Nevertheless, more concerted COIN operations are needed in order to sustain these made gains citing the fluidity of these two regions; central and southern of Somalia which have remained operational areas of contestation between Al-Shabaab and coalitions partner forces. Military pressure should be maintained on the group citing the militants have been able to upscale its attacks throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and now the disease is being contained, more targets will become available.