Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Mozambique, DRC & Somalia): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in September 2020

In September, the official ISIS affiliates in Central and East Africa continue to pose a major threat in the countries of operation with a stepped-up number of attacks. The group has been steadfast in its resolve to expand and establish itself as a formidable organization as it continues to seek and pursue the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in countries like Somalia, DRC, and Mozambique.

In Mozambique and DRC, the group continues to exhibit exceeding and ever-growing capabilities with more sophisticated attacks that have a far-reaching effect in the vast areas they have an active presence. In September, at least sixty-five attacks were conducted in the three countries leaving at least two hundred people dead and another hundred seriously injured. While there have been COIN efforts by the local governments and partners, the groups especially ISCAP in Mozambique and DRC appear to be holding its own, morphing, and adapting to soar above the CT campaigns by the militaries.

ISCAP and Abnaa Ul Calipha Attacks in Mozambique, DRC, and Somalia In September 2020

DRC

1. 02^nd September- 2 farmers were killed and two others were injured in Kanana and Chochora villages in the Rwenzori sector. The two were shot dead in their fields.
2. 03^rd September- 3 ISCAP terrorists were killed and several others injured after a deadly clashed between the terror organization and Congolese troops towards the village of Kinziki-Matiba. The soldiers recovered two AK47 guns.
3. 04^th September- ISCAP was run out by the military as they attempted an attack on farmers in their fields in near Kakuka and Mbumbuli villages.
4. 05^th September- 2 people were killed in the ISCAP attack in the Banande-Kainama group In the Beni-Mbau sector.
5. 05^th September- 2 people were killed, cattle stolen and several others kidnapped by ISCAP in a night attack in Kisuwi village in Kainama.
6. 07^th September- 4 people were killed inNgandu in the Rwenzori sector; the four were farmers who were killed in their farms.
7. 09^th September- at least 30 people were killed, several seriously injured as well as women and children kidnapped by ISCAP militants in Belou and Bulilia in the Chiefdom of Banyali-Tchabi in Irumu, Ituri province. The victims were either beheaded or hacked to death with machetes.
8. 09^th September- 3 people, a taximan and two of his clients were shot dead by jihadists along the Mbau-Kamango road in Beni
9. 10^th September- 11 people were killed by ISCAP in Mutueyi-Mapendo village
10. 10^th September- 11 people were killed by ISCAP in Mutueyi-Mapendo village
11. 10^th September- at least 28 people were killed by ADF terrorists in the Tchabi locale of Irumu territory in Ituri Province.
12. 10^th September- 4 military outposts in Beni territory were attacked by ADF but the attacks were thwarted by the FARDC. The attacks were targeting Matete, Kelekele, Kitaura, and Mbau center outposts.
13. 16^th September- ADF militants attacked an NGO workers’ van near Kasiki in Lubero territory of North Kivu. One aid worker was killed while several others were injured in the attack.
14. 16^th September- Insurgents attacked a taximan and shot him dead along the Mbau-Kamango road in Beni territory.
15.  
16. 17^th September- A Congolese soldier was shot dead with an automatic weapon in Beni.
17. 17^th September- military barracks in Malango, Ituri Province were attacked, one soldier killed and weapons and ammunition seized by ISCAP.
18. 20^th September- 12 people, 1 soldier killed by ADF in Mbau vicinity dozen civilian missing
19. 22^nd September- 2 people killed, a health center razed and several shops looted in Musuku village in the Batangi-Mbau sector
20. 23^rd September- 5 people stabbed to death with knives as several others go missing in Kinyambaore, Rwenzori sector in Beni.
21. 25^th September- 3 people killed and several others kidnapped by ADF militants in Mbutaba village in Beni territory in North Kivu province.
22. 26^th September- 5 people were killed and at least 15 others missing after an attack by ISCAP terrorists on the evening of Saturday in Kirotse-Mbutaba, Sikwaila village in Batangi Mbau group in Beni.
23. 28^th September- 1 person was killed after being abducted by ADF terrorists in Vipuri village in Beni, North Kivu.

MOZAMBIQUE

1. 01^st September- ISCAP attacked Quelimane village located north of Mocimboa da Praia (MDP) while nobody was injured, the attack occurred on the road that connects Palma and MDP.
2. 04^th September- 3 decapitated bodies were discovered in Ancuabe, Pemba in the same locality where at least 17 youth were kidnapped and believed to have joined ISCAP.
3. 05^th September- insurgents attacked Ilha Vamize, in Palma district after arriving on the mainland on boats. The militants burned down at least 3 homes as well as looted solar panels, batteries, and a boat.
4. 06^th September- militants attacked Manica village, Macomia, looted animals and food but did not kill anybody.
5. 07^th September- ISCAP ambushed security forces in Awasse that led to the withdrawal of the military. While the official death toll and both sides are still unknown, at least two military vehicles were destroyed in the altercation.
6. 07^th September- ISCAP attacked Vamisse, located 9km from Afungi Peninsula in Palma district killing one person.
7. 08^th September- 2 people were killed following an attack in Nambo village, Macomia; one was beheaded and the other was charred in the burned buildings
8. 10^th September- insurgents attacked Tete and Namaringa villages in Mocimboa da Praia where they razed buildings and looted for supplies.
9. 11^th September- ISCAP attacked the island of Ilha, Vamisse in Pemba, looted for supplies, burned down at least 30 homes, and attacked a tourist attraction resort that was the destination for various international celebrities.
10. 11^th September- ISCAP conducted a series of attacks in Pala district were two people were beheaded, vehicles destroyed. Additionally, two people were killed and several others injured after a truck was run off the road by militants.
11. 12^th September- Two people were injured in Maganja in Palm district after ISCAP insurgents attacked the area.
12. 12^th September- Mozambican troops conducted their first attempt at incursion into the captured MDP but were met by serious ISAP resistance at Awasse.
13. 13^th September- ISCAP attacked Ningalia in Macomia where they burnt down homes, stole food, and other essential supplies.
14. 13^th September- ISCAP terrorists attacked Manica, Macomia where they stole chickens and cookware before retreating to their hideouts.
15. 17^th Sept- 2 people were decapitated by ISCAP terrorists as they chopped wood in Kiwiya village in Pemba district.
16. 17^th September- ISCAP terrorists attacked the luxury Isles of Mecungo and Vamisse In Pemba where they razed down resorts and homes.
17. 20^th September- insurgents wearing Mozambican military uniforms attacked Litimanda, Macomia district firing into the air to scare residents away as they looted food from several shops.
18. 25^th September- 5 people were killed by ISCAP terrorists in Bilibiza in Quissanga, militants also burnt down homes.
19. 25^th September- 2 people were killed by ISCAP terrorists in Cagembe in Quissanga, militants also burnt down homes.
20. 25^th September- at least 6 civilians were killed as well as 2 soldiers in Naliendele village in Palma district
21. 25^th September- 3 people were killed by ISCAP in Pundanhar, Palma District as they were traveling to buy supplies in Rovuma.
22. 26^th September- a vehicle transporting people and goods from Mueda and Palma was attacked by ISCAP and set on fire between Nangade and Pundanhar.
23. 28^th September- ISCAP militants attacked Nyica, Palma District that is located towards the Tanzanian border. A couple was kidnapped and 1 border officer was killed in the attack.
24. 30^th September- insurgents attacked and caused unrest in Pangane, Macomia district.

SOMALIA

1. 06^th September- 3 police officers were injured following after ISS militants hauled grenades at a security checkpoint
2. 17^th September- 3 police officers were killed after a grenade was hauled at a security checkpoint in Mogadishu.
3. 20th September- 3 police officers were wounded after a grenade was hauled at a security checkpoint in Mogadishu.
4. 22nd September- 1 police officer killed several others wounded after a grenade was hauled at a security checkpoint in Mogadishu.

Analysis And Notable Insights

The elusive ISCAP continues to attacking civilians and amercing territory as is the case of the Mbau-Kamango axis in DRC and the port city of Mocimboa da Praia, and Palma district in Mozambique. In Somalia, while al Shabaab has been active in its attacks and activities its Abnaa Ul Calipha counterpart has been relatively docile with only four attacks in September against the police and security checkpoints in Mogadishu.

The last two weeks ISCAP in Mozambique has been fortifying itself in the district that it has captured, the luxury island as well as the towns and areas that are closest to the Tanzanian border. While it seemingly appears that the indiscriminate killings have taken a down-surge, the groups continue to use fear tactics like burning buildings, invasions that include shooting in the air, driving the residents out as well verbal intimidation to threaten residents either into submission or desertion.

Additionally, the continued hold of MDP by ISCAP since August reaffirms that the group’s battle strategy has proven successful and stubborn against the military intervention. In the past week, the group has been looting food, animals, and other supplies to replenish their supplies and could be an indicator of the growing numbers, and as such the spoils are meant to feed the members.

CT actors in Mozambique are making steady strides to defeat ISCAP and while the results are minute mainly because of the mistrust between the security services and residents, arrests of key recruiters and facilitators have been arrested which is a significant step in filling the intelligence gaps. The arrests have revealed that ISCAP has militants embedded within the civilian population and that they spy and relay information especially about the movement of the troops and as such explaining how the militants have seemingly maintained an upper hand while at the same time keeping the casualty numbers on their side low.

In Mozambique and DRC, the group has shown that while there are government responses in the countries the group is stronger than estimated and has capabilities including weaponry, large numbers of recruits and fighters as well as tactical and geographical advantages that are mostly unprecedented. The groups have taken strategic positions by taking control of key strategic transport routes that allow them the liberty of movement, and control as compared to previous months earlier in the year.  

In DRC ISCAP has increased its area of operation to move the historical Beni territory to include Lubero and Ituri where the group has been known to not exist. The attack on aid workers occurred further south from the usually Beni territory evidencing the expansion of the ADF from Beni territory to the neighboring territory as was the case with last week’s attacks in Ituri province. Additionally, the insurgents attempted to breach four military outposts in the Beni-Mbau sector where previous attacks have been concentrated in attempts to either run out the military as well as resupply weapons and ammunition. Intelligence reveals that the funding for ADF may have been transported and facilitated by some corrupt Congolese soldiers who are said to have let a carrier with at $800,000 believed to be headed to ADF in Beni without proper identification and clearance. Such a large sum of money makes for a huge shift in the threat that is posed by the militants as they can now afford to buy weapons as well as allowances for the fighters who appear to be growing in numbers both through voluntary and coerced recruitment drives.

In Somalia, as has been the observable trend in the past couple of months, Abnaa Ul Calipha has maintained a low profile that has been broken by the periodical attacks in the security apparatus in the country’s capital Mogadishu. In September, there were at least 4 attacks on security checkpoints and involved a now-common mode of operation by the group in Mogadishu that includes grenades.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Tanzania is a key transit point for Jihadists that seek to join ISCAP in Mozambique and is evidenced further by the group’s plan to take control of the border district to secure a transport route for recruits into Cabo Delgado from across the East Africa region.
• In order to curate and implement sustainable COIN strategies, socio-political injustices ought to be addressed seeing as most the recruitment ground for the group especially in Mozambique is majorly vulnerable youth that are angry at the government and seeks out revenge from the enemy.
• In DRC and Mozambique, the military has been accused of violating the rights of civilians in the name of intelligence gathering and as such creating animosity between the public and law enforcers. This trend is a major deterrent to the fight against ISIS in the countries.
• It is crucial that troops and COIN actors not relent in their fight against the affiliates both in DRC and Mozambique as the group continues to amerce territory and fighter so will it amerce sympathizers who will fund and protect the group’s interests and activities.
• Mozambique’s government needs to be hasty in seeking assistance from the regional actors as it is evident that the military and COIN actors lack the necessary skills to deal with the militancy in this crucial stage. This is especially true because stringent measures ought to be taken before the group roots itself near the strategic border with Tanzania and the international contraband trade route in MDP.