Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Mozambique, DRC & Somalia)

Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 1^st July- 9^th July 2020

The period between July 1^st and July 9^th has recorded several attacks Restive North Kivu and Cabo Delgado Province in DRC and Mozambique as well as one attack in Mogadishu in Somalia. The attacks have left civilians and security officers dead, building razed to the ground, and thousands of people homeless and displaced from their villages and towns. The attacks signify the growing threat posed by the Islamic State with all three branches appearing to step up their attacks with the use of sophistication especially in Mozambique and frequency. In DRC and Mozambique, ISCAP has exhibited a heightened capability to conduct attacks, hold towns hostage, and drive out the security forces. Additionally, based on BDA, the groups have recruits, better weapons, and complex battle plans that have been key in inflicting maximum damage to the areas they attack.

In Somalia Abnaa Ul Calipha conducted another grenade attack in the capital which is an indicator that the group is gradually adopting its early modes of attack to support the group’s presence in the southern parts of Somalia that dominated by al-Qaeda affiliated al Shabaab. The attack is an indicator that the group has active cells in various parts of the country unlike the standard assumption that they are only concentrated in the north. It can also be viewed as a way to assert themselves as well as intimidate their rivals, Al Shabaab who have been moving fighters to the north close to ISS’ headquarters. Both groups are constantly fighting each other for territory and dominance especially fuelled by their fundamental ideological differences.

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC

Mozambique

• 3^rd July- a several-days occupation ended in Mocimboa da Praia with a large number of casualties. The residents fled the town following the siege with an unknown number of civilians kidnapped and others killed.
• 3^rd July- 3 civilians beheaded by ISCA in Chimbanga in Mocimboa da Praia as they fled towards Palma
• 3^rd July- ISCA insurgents attacked and burned down homes in the coastal area of Milamba in Macomia district.
• 4^th July- three civilians were killed in Simbolongo in Macomia district.

Democratic Republic of Congo

• 1^st July– ISCAP insurgents attacked a military compound in Beni, North Kivu killing and wounding several soldiers.
• 3^rd July– one soldier wounded and another killed during an attack on Congolese military barracks in Oicha, Beni where weapons and ammunition were seized.
• 4^th July– A Congolese military vehicle was destroyed and six soldiers were killed using automatic rifles in Oicha, Beni in North Kivu Province.

Somalia

• 06^th July- 3 Somali police officers were wounded by grenades thrown at a security checkpoint in Elaysha, Mogadishu by Islamic State Somalia terrorists.

Insight

In Mozambique, ISCAP has adopted a sporadic mode of attack that alternates from swift attacks conducted by small cells that do not linger, to ambushes on military targets to temporary occupancy. The nature of attacks makes it rather difficult for the military with intelligence gaps to respond effectively and with the right amount of force to decimate the terrorists while at the same time protecting the civilian populace. The group continues to undermine the efforts of the security troops by attacking regions that have been liberated. The continued attacks have been with the sole purpose of showing that the military and police are incapable of providing durable and sustainable security and peace for the residents.

The main surfaced roads in the town of Mocimboa da Praia, which was under the control of the insurgents for the most of last week, have been graffitied with slogans suggesting the intention to impose an Islamic state. Words like “Al-Shabaab tomorrow again” and “Islamic State” have appeared on streets where the district government and the government forces headquarters are located, in the black, red, and blue letters characteristic of the flags raised by the group during the invasion of the town.

The security problem is further accelerated by the growing mistrust between the military and residents mainly because the insurgents have been donning the military uniform making it difficult to differentiate them. Furthermore, in recent weeks, extortion and looting brutality allegation gave been leveled against the underpaid and unmotivated troops from the residents of Cabo Delgado. The same mistrust has been exploited by the insurgents in their recruitment campaigns a move that is geared at driving a wedge between the proverbial protector and protected.

In DRC the attacks are a retaliation for the increased attacks by the government troops and UN peacekeepers that have been pushing the ADF terrorists from their hideouts in the forest. The same is reinforced by the target-period statistics that indicate a concentration of attacks on the security forces with no attacks on civilians recorded. ISCAP continues to consolidate territory around the border region between Ituri and North Kivu, carrying out numerous operations in Beni territory. Further reports suggest that the ADF established new bases near Eringeti. Previously, the group appeared to only operate in North Kivu, and as such recent intelligence shows a growth in capacity and numbers that allow the group to expand and create camps and presence across the bigger region.

In Somalia, as is ISS’ mode of operation, the group prefers assassinations and targeted killings of security officials but the data herein indicates that the group is expanding their catalog of preferred weapons to include IEDs. Historically, ISS and al Shabaab are ideologically different which makes them innate rivals and especially seeing as they are competing for the same scarce resources across various regions in Somalia.

Conclusion

This perceived illegitimacy of the state makes it more difficult for the civilians to cooperate with the military in the counterinsurgency operations and instead choose to face off or rather survive the alternative which is the brutal ISCAP.

In terms of CT and COIN efforts against ISCAP and ISS in the featured three countries, local authorities and local players have curated strategies specific to the individual restive regions. In Mozambique, President Nyusi has sought out the help of the South African bloc (SADC) in fighting the growing insurgency in the North as well as increasing the number of troops active in the region which prompted threat against the move by the terrorists through A-Naba newsletter. In DRC the group has been taking advantage of the various conflicts and armed groups to amerce weapons and ammo in anticipation for a resurgence and as well as equipping its growing members. Also, in Somalia, the group has been taking strategic advantage of the fight mounted by the security forces against al Shabaab to take positions and activate its cells in the southern areas of Somalia. Unlike its counterparts in DRC and Mozambique, the group doesn’t conduct as many attacks mainly because of the counterinsurgency measures and the international allies with a heavy presence in Somalia.

ISIS has not only provided media support and propaganda, training, funding, and theological guidance to ISIS provinces in sub-Saharan Africa, it has also metamorphosed and reorganized ISCAP and ISS. The ISIS threat is not an individual nation threat as it is documented how terror organizations amerce power and capabilities to conduct cross-border attacks as is the case of al Shabaab and East African nations. Consistent military support and operations are key to stymie ISCAP both in DRC and Mozambique this is especially because national armies appear not fully committed or poised to eliminate them, despite that the militants may still be numerically few enough to be quashed.