ISCAP And IS-Somalia Record Upsurge In Attacks In Mozambique, DRC And Somalia Indicating A Growing ISIS Threat In The Region

Since the Islamic State lost the majority of its territory in Iraq and Syria, the group made deliberate attempts to ensure that the group’s ideology did not die with the defeat in the Middle East. This led to the declaration of several Wilayat in Africa among them Somalia known as Abnaa Ul Calipha (ISS) and the Central Africa Province (ISCAP). In recent months the groups have been stepping up their operations in Somalia, Mozambique, and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) respectively. The insurgencies have morphed from local militias to ruthless and brutal terrorist organizations that seek to establish an Islamic caliphate in their respective territories while at the same time furthering the core ideology of ISIS-central.

Evidentially, during the month of Ramadhan and especially towards the end, the groups have shown a considerable upsurge in attacks especially in Mozambique and DRC where the groups seem to have rejuvenated. This can be partially credited to recent intelligence that indicates that the groups have been consolidated under the leadership of the more seasoned Somalia’s province.

Attacks By ISS And ISCAP In The Region Between 14^th May And 28^th May

MOZAMBIQUE

1. 14^th – two FADM soldiers were killed and an armored vehicle seized in Auasse village in Cabo Delgado Province
2. 16^th ­­– insurgents beheaded 10 people in Miangalewa village in Muidube District
3. 18^th – attacked a catholic mission run by Benedictine Monks in Auasse in Mocimboa da Praia and razed all the buildings including a new hospital that was under construction.
4. 20^th – conducted two simultaneous attacks in Mussomero and Namirumo in Quissanga District razing homes and a fuel station.
5. 24^th – terrorists attacked Koko village in Macomia district robbing houses, looting food, and other supplies.
6. 28^th – ISCAP launched an attack on the district capital of Macomia and a series of other villages in the region destroying government buildings before they were pushed by the Airforce.

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

1. 14^th – ISCAP terrorists attacked and executed 3 FARDC soldiers in Birman Village, Beni region.
2. 17^th – 30 Christians were killed in three different villages in Beni Region.
3. 20^th – two ‘spies’ were captured and executed by ADF in Kuriyo Village
4. 20^th – five FARDC soldiers were killed in Maniema
5. 24^th – five people were killed through stabbing in Kakwavya village
6. 24^th – seven civilians and two soldiers were killed by ADF in Loselose village
7. 25^th – 13 Christians were massacred in Erengeti village
8. 25^th – ISCAP claimed responsibility for the execution of 3 FARDC soldiers in an attack on military barracks in Lusilubi.
9. 27^th – 17 civilians were killed In Makutano Village, Beni by machete and gun-wielding ISCAP MILITANTS.

SOMALIA

1. 19^th – ISS attacked SNA soldiers near Mogadishu with an IED-laden vehicle
2. 22^nd – ISS killed one police officer and wounded another in an assassination attack.
3. 25^th – several ISS members were arrested following a series of operations in Isku Shubah, Toga Jacyl, Toga Canjeel, and Dooha Gabin in Bari region where the driver to the ISS emir, Sheikh Mumin was among the arrested.

As evidenced in the herein mentioned data, the groups have shown a spike in attacks especially since the data cluster shows days leading to the end of Ramadhan. It is crucial to note that the relatively new province in DRC and Mozambique appear to be aggressive in their attacks which could signify that they both have fresh recruits and are seeking to amerce territory.

Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado which has a huge Muslim population has had a lot of political grievances with the Mozambican government with locals feeling deprived of their rightful share in the spoils of the natural resources available in the province. Further, the deprivation has translated to the province being inadequately catered for politically, socially, economically, and recently security due to ill-equipped and few military personnel.

In Mozambique, intelligence indicates that the group has been receiving recruits from across the East Africa region as well as its recruitment drives in Cabo Delgado. S.I. analysts previously connoted that an exhibited change in tactics by the group was geared at seeking legitimacy and gaining favor with local youth and communities at large. As evidenced above, most attacks are temporary occupancy where the group razed government buildings without attacking the residents and as such could be contributing factors to recruitment and a surge in the number of attacks. It is important to note that the residents of the restive north have had economic grievances that have not been adeptly addressed by the Mozambican government and thus giving ISCAP an avenue to exploit. This can be evidenced by the seeming lack of local benefits for the province despite the rich oil and natural gas reserves location in Cabo Delgado.

In DRC an upsurge in attacks against the Christian population is observable as ADF which is the official affiliate of ISCAP in the country has been stepping up attacks. In the past, the attacks were in guerrilla-style and were swift a trend that is shifting to evidence confidence and machismo of the group. Beheadings and stabbings are becoming the group’s preferred mode of attack a tactic that the group has carried forward to its new ‘era’. ADF began as an Islamist-rooted rebel group in Uganda that opposed President Yoweri Museveni. It then fell back to North Kivu, DR Congo’s border province with Uganda, during the Congo Wars of the 1990s. The group gained momentum in 2019 after it was recognized as part of ISCAP by ISIS-Central. Since then the group has been showing a steady upsurge in the group’s activities and attacks in the restive Beni region. Beni region offers the group a geographical advantage because the group has lived in the forests for many years giving them an edge against the government soldiers and other peacekeepers. Like ISCAP in Mozambique, intelligence has indicated a steady increase of new recruits from not only from East Africa but also in the larger sub-Saharan region. The same is translated to a seemingly change in tactic to include the execution of soldiers and individuals accused of spying on the group. This trait is very common in Somalia and as such gives clear insight on the influence the Mumin-led group is having on their compatriots in DRC. Attacks on Christians in the Beni region by ISCAP are on the rise with the group showing enhanced military-like coordination and movement especially during the attacks that guarantee success and confidence to attack high-security targets like the military.

In Somalia, ISS has remained relatively inactive for the better part of the year with only a trend that indicates a resurgence in the past few weeks. In the Bari region of Puntland, the militants have been targeting security apparatus and as well as keeping an active rivalry between them and their parent group al Shabaab. As is ISS mode of operation, the group prefers assassinations and targeted killings of security officials but the data herein indicates that the group is expanding their catalog of preferred weapons to include IEDs. Historically, ISS and al Shabaab are ideologically different which makes them innate rivals and especially seeing as they ate competing for the same scarce resources in the Bari region. Earlier in the week at least 60 al Shabaab terrorists arrived by boat in Bari to reinforce their fellows in an attempt to claim dominance against ISS in the region that offers geographical advantages for encampments and training.

Insight

The surge of attacks in Mozambique, DRC, and Somalia can be traced to a call by ISIS-Central to its followers across the globe to take part in a campaign against the infidels and agents of the illegitimate governments, especially during the ongoing global pandemic. Additionally, in Mozambique, the group has gained momentum because the military in the region was ill-prepared and undermined the extent of the insurgency, presence, and new tactics that are being borrowed from groups like Al Shabaab of Somalia and Boko Haram of Nigeria. In DRC, the health crisis, a new wave of Ebola cases, and other bloody conflicts in the war-torn nation have distracted security officers from the ISCAP-dominated Beni region. Moreover, in DRC local authorities have lagged in acknowledging the ADF’s affiliation to ISIS hence failing to change tactics to incorporate counterterrorism measures that are separate from other armed clashes in the country.

Threat Matrix

In terms of CT and COIN efforts against ISCAP and ISS in the featured three countries, local authorities and local players have curated strategies specific to the individual restive regions. In Mozambique, President Nyusi has sought out the help of the South African bloc (SADC) in fighting the growing insurgency in the North. SADC agreed to help Mozambique which could include peacekeepers and a security mission like AMISOM in Somalia. Intelligence indicates that Zimbabwe has sent troops to Cabo Delgado to reinforce Mozambican troops with Tanzania has reinforced her border to the south to ensure recruits do not cross over to join the terrorists as well as prevent a spill-over into the East African nation. Further, there are active private security groups that have been backing up the already stretched-out-too-thin military in the province. In DRC the UN mission alongside Congolese soldiers have been launching mop-up operations in Beni to decapitate the group’s infrastructures and supplies. The operations have been able to nab several commanders as well as fighters who have provided the much-needed intelligence on the elusive terror organization that has been terrorizing residents of North Kivu. Likewise, in Somalia, especially in Puntland where ISS has major presence, state’s military has been conducting operations in the various villages in Bari which have resulted in the arrests of high-profile members of ISS including the leader, Sheikh Mumin’s driver. Cumulatively, all three countries have been taking bolstered strategies that are geared toward rigorously addressing the threat posed by the Islamic State especially in the larger Great Lakes region.

ISIS has not only provided training, funding, and theological guidance to ISIS provinces in sub-Saharan Africa, it has also metamorphosed and reorganized ISCAP and ISS. The ISIS threat is not an individual nation threat as it is documented how terror organizations amerce power and capabilities to conduct cross-border attacks as is the case of al Shabaab and East African nations. Consistent military support and operations are key to stymie ISCAP both in DRC and Mozambique this is especially because national armies appear not fully committed or poised to eliminate them, despite that the militants may still be numerically few enough to be quashed. While military solutions are the most used methods local players and authorities should explore other socio-economic and political solutions to radicalization to ensure that military action does not further isolate local communities and inspire radicalization and sprouting of new cells in the restive regions of the respective countries.