The Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab which has bedeviled the East African country of Somalia for a decade continues to gain strength and wealth. Besides, the terror group is enjoying series of successful campaigns in years against the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). The terrorist group has intensified its assaults in Somalia and beyond its borders.
In the past one week, Al-Shabaab has claimed at least eight attacks in Somalia, signaling imminent terror group’s resurgence.
Claimed attacks in past one week
6th February 2020, a roadside explosion hit a vehicle belonging to a member of Somali parliament at telex junction in the capital Mogadishu.
5th February 2020, Al-Shabaab claimed ambush attack on a military convoy of SNA between Alameda and Hawa Abdi in the suburb of the capital, Mogadishu. Terror group claimed to have caused military casualties and loss of military equipment.
5th February 2020, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a member of Somali Government security and intelligence force (NISA) and soldier belonging to SNA in two separate operations in the districts of Hera and Drakenli, in the capital Mogadishu.
4th February 2020, the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed to have targeted a military truck belonging to the Kenyan troops with an IED on the road between Doble and the town of Tabto in Juba State of Somalia.
4th February 2020, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED attack on Burundi soldiers. Four Burundi foot patrol soldiers were killed in the town of Burni in the suburb of Mahdai, Middle Shabelle region of Somalia.
3rd February 2020, Al-Shabaab claimed two IED attacks targeting a security forces’ gathering in Hodan district in the capital, Mogadishu.
3rd February 2020, Al-Shabaab terrorist group claimed assassination of a Somali police in Aylsha area in the capital, Mogadishu.
1st February 2020, Al-Shabaab claimed armed assault on SNA military barracks in the city of Qoryoley, in the Lower Shebelle region. Undisclosed number of SNA soldiers were killed and damage of military materials.
30th January 2020, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on SNA. The terrorist group claimed to have killed two soldiers and seized medicine from their barracks in the town of Zabid in the suburb of Afgooye, southwest of the capital, Mogadishu.
30th January 2020, Al-Shabaab claimed assassination of a Somali Government officer in the Luqq city, Gedo region of Somalia in an ambush attack.
Analysis
Al-Shabaab has perfected the art of propaganda warfare and it has utilized this through publication of its claimed successes through its pro-websites, media and channels. The terrorist group is hurriedly publishing its attack claims faster as compared to yester years.
The terror group’s strength continues to grow. According to Jay Bahadur, former head of the UN Panel of Experts on Somalia, Al-Shabaab has a lot of society on their side. The group has infiltrated government, spy and intelligence network through gear and intimidation as portrayed in countless number of assassinations.
Al-Shabaab is utilizing the rule of divide and conquer in Somalia. By penetrating into Somalia government security, Al-Shabaab is able to get intelligence from their insiders and subsequently be able to conduct successful attacks. The terrorist group has publicly assassinated government officers in an effort to instill fear to either work with them or face the same fate.
Citing Bahadur, if you count affiliates, spies, facilitators, sympathizers among others, we’re looking at a large chunk of the Somali population working with Al-Shabaab and thus strengthening the jihadist group.
Extorted monies: Significantly, Al-Shabaab has no shortage of funds. Al-Shabab collects payments from people, including companies, through extortion and intimidation. If you have a business in Somalia, you should pay them otherwise your business will be blown out. It finances its operations through a kind of forced taxation from the public.
The group draws its finances from diverse revenue streams, including taxes, extortion, contraband and involvement in key revenue channels. The main channels include; illegal trade in charcoal, smuggling of sugar; illegal trade in arms, collection from illegal roadblocks, diverting and taxing humanitarian assistance by international agencies. Other minor sources of funds include piracy, smuggling ivory, ransoms from kidnappings, donations mostly from the diaspora community, and self-financing from members and sympathizers.
Al-Shabaab requires funds to finance its ambitious intelligence wing, Amniyaat, in its gathering of intelligence from institutions of the Federal Government, Federal States, AMISOM, Somalia’s neighbors, foreign governments and international agencies. The terror group also need to procure weapons, ammunition, explosives, vehicles and other warfare materials and finally, it has to fund for its elaborate publicity and propaganda network and platforms.
Al-Shabab’s ongoing ability to generate revenues within areas under their control explains the group’s massive wealth sustaining its campaigns in Somalia and likely to accelerate posing threat beyond the borders of the horn of Africa nation.
Insight
With bulging economic lifeline, Al-Shabaab threat isn’t decreasing but its compounding. From July 2018 to July 2019, the terrorist group reportedly carried out 548 attacks in Somalia using homemade explosives, compared with 413 from the previous year and corresponding period, citing open sources reports.
Al-Shabaab’s threat is expected to increase citing the group’s growing economic muscle and societal strength as exhibited. The group’s attacks trend-line indicate that the group is carrying at least two attacks in a day in Somalia, a trend that could easily excite group’s cells operating along northeastern prefectures of Kenya.
Conclusion
Although SNA, AMISOM and other allied forces in Somalia have made milestones in disrupting Al-Shabaab activities in many of the areas it previously controlled, the group remains a lethal force with the ability to stage surprise attacks. The group’s ability of staging an attack everyday proves contrary to opinions that it was seriously weakened and on the verge of defeat rather than the group is resilient and a reminder that security assets without a new and effective strategy, there is a risk of Al-Shabaab re-taking control of the Somalia and beyond.
