The Islamic State since it defeats in Iraq and Syria embarked on an expansion campaign that saw the approval of bayat pledges by groups across the world. The acknowledgment of the meagre groups was viewed as ISIS’ way of exaggerating its reach and decentralizing the group’s operations to foster a global agenda away from the falling ISIS-Central in the Middle East.
ISIS in the east and central Africa region has at least three active group locations with other lone fighters scattered across the region. ISIS-Central has continually used literature that references its province in Central Africa (ISCAP) that includes fighters from both DRC and Mozambique. Recently, the Islamic State Somalia (ISS) has released videos speaking in Amharic to appeal to Ethiopian brothers a move that has rocked the East African region. The horn and central African regions are not strangers to violent groups and as such offer the Islamic State (IS) ample recruiting and operating ground.
Authorities in Ethiopia have arrested at least 12 members of IS operating in different parts of the country in a move that indicates a growing presence of ISIS in Ethiopia especially seeing as the majority arrested were scouting attack locations the regional states of Oromia, Somali and Addis Ababa. Ethiopia that neighbors Somalia has been experiencing political and sectarian tensions that can catalyze the spread of IS.
Earlier in September, the DRC military accused mosques in Beni region of offering radical teachings as well as recruiting for the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) that are scattered on both sides of the border that DRC shares with Uganda. ADF is part of ISCAP along with ‘al-Shabaab’ in Mozambique and as such the recruits are directly for the IS which intelligence indicates is actively recruiting and training. ADF has upped its activities by kidnapping and looting supplies, medicine and food that is an obvious indication of a group seeking sustenance for growing numbers. With ADF having fighters both in Uganda and DRC, it is prudent to indicate the reach and geographical operation of ISCAP is not limited to DRC and Mozambique but also Uganda.
On September 21st the Islamic State showed fighters within its Somali branch (ISS) training in a makeshift camp in Somalia’s northern Puntland region. The photos released online showed militants undergoing basic weapons and physical training at a camp “Dawoud al Somali” training camp, which is named after a killed military trainer of the group. The photos are part of a campaign strategy that shows that ISS is back and stronger than ever after revamping itself with new and better-trained fighters. Additionally, the photos were preceded last week, it claimed its first operation since Aug. 14 and its first inside Mogadishu since Aug. 5. It is apparent that while the group has been docile with fewer attacks in the recent months in Puntland, southern Somalia as well as the capital it appears to be stronger and with fresh recruits.
Threat Matrix
- The Islamic State is both actively recruiting and training next-generation fighters who they’ll deploy to targeted areas to conduct attacks and increase recruitment.
- The growing presence in Ethiopia is an indicator that IS is seeking to establish a safe haven in the Horn of Africa region by exploiting existing conflicts and tension especially those of sectarian kind.
- ADF which has members in both DRC and Uganda may offer a good launchpad for ISCAP by exploiting group’s guerilla warfare that has helped the group remain active and lethal in the Beni region.
- ISCAP in Mozambique has seen an upsurge from recruits from neighboring Tanzania whose jihadis were unable to travel to join al Shabaab Somalia. Additionally, intelligence has indicated that radical elements from Uganda were arrested in Mozambique and as such making the group a triple threat that can extend its influences into East Africa as well as the Great Lakes region.
- IS in Somalia which had appeared withdrawn following a military kinetic operation and aerial bombardment campaign has resurfaced with an apparent rejuvenation, new recruits that are well-trained and equipped. This in itself speaks to the fact that the group is morphing and adopting new tactics to withstand military pressure as well as conduct attacks both in the northern parts where it is headquartered and further south including the capital Mogadishu.
