Midday 13 May, Major General Godefroid Niyombare issued a press statement from a military barracks.
In the press statement, General Godefroid Niyombare dismissed President Pierre Nkurunziza, who was at the time out of the country to attend a regional summit (specifically in Dar es Salaam Tanzania for an EAC Summit meeting.)
Analysis
OSINT Assessments late 2014 and early 2015 warned of political and subsequent ethnic violence in Burundi.
The unrest in Burundi was factored by a growing dispute between the ruling CNDD-FDD party and opposition parties due to President Pierre Nkurunziza’s plans to vie for a 3rd term and controversy over the voter registration process.
Intelligence showed that provinces near the border with DRC would experience violence and possible gun attacks. This would be factored by the political impasse.
According to IHS Janes Intelligence Country Risk Assessment , a likely early intervention from the security forces will however mitigate against a popular uprising similar to that that led to the ousting of Burkina Faso’s former president, Blaise Compaoré, although the risk of damage to business property and death and injury risk to bystanders in urban areas will increase in the one-year outlook.
According to Strategic Intelligence there risk of coups in Central Africa is very high in early 2015.
Read ;Military Coup In Democratic Republic Of Congo & Burundi Highly Likely In 2015
Outcomes
If the Burundi Coup is successful, President Pierre Nkurunziza will nolonger be in power.
The army faction which is loyal to Major General Godefroid Niyombare is likely to suspend elections scheduled for 26 June 2015 and use the council to govern the country before they give back power to civilians.
A one month outlook shows possible escalation of political violence in the major cities in Burundi. Militia’s loyal to President Pierre Nkurunziza may start an ethnic war which may escalate.
OSINT Assessments reports that the threat of a civil war in Burundi has drastically increased due to the rivalries within the ethnically divided military and police.
