Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of July1st – July 31st, 2025: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda affiliate operating in Somalia and extending its campaign into Kenya, continued to threaten regional peace and stability throughout July 2025. The group executed 51 recorded attacks during the month, underscoring its operational resilience despite counterinsurgency efforts by Somali, Kenyan, and African Union forces. The volume and spread of these incidents reflect the group’s determination to destabilize state authority, disrupt security operations, and expand territorial influence.

The bulk of Al-Shabaab’s operations occurred in Somalia, with the regions of Bay, Hiran, Lower Shabelle, Mogadishu, and Lower Juba recording the highest concentration of incidents. Within Somalia, Baidoa, Afgooye, Dinsoor, Beledweyne, and Maxaas witnessed repeat attacks, indicating their status as high-priority targets. In Kenya, the group concentrated on Lamu, Mandera, and Wajir counties, continuing its cross-border campaign to undermine Kenyan security deployments and project influence beyond Somali territory.

The attacks demonstrated a diverse set of tactics, dominated by Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs), both roadside and suicide variants, which accounted for the majority of incidents. These were complemented by armed assaults, raids, ambushes, and targeted assassinations, often conducted in combination to maximize impact. The “double-tap” method—an initial IED strike followed by an armed assault—was also employed, reflecting evolving battlefield tactics designed to inflict higher casualties and destroy critical military infrastructure.

Weapons of choice for Al-Shabaab included IEDs, small arms, and suicide vests, supported by occasional seizure of captured equipment during raids. Civilian intimidation tactics such as kangaroo courts and public flogging also remained part of their psychological warfare, reinforcing the group’s attempt to impose parallel governance structures in areas under influence. Such actions highlight the dual nature of Al-Shabaab’s campaign—military insurgency paired with social control mechanisms.

Al-Shabaab’s activities in July 2025 underscore the persistent threat posed to Somalia and neighboring Kenya. The frequency of IED attacks, repeated targeting of Bay and Lower Shabelle in Somalia, and continued incursions into Mandera and Lamu in Kenya point to operational hotspots requiring heightened vigilance. The group’s continued adaptability and tactical diversity necessitate coordinated regional counterterrorism responses to mitigate the escalating threat environment.

These trends highlight Al-Shabaab’s persistent operational reach, with the group consistently recording slightly over 50 attacks in recent months. Despite sustained military pressure, the militants continue to destabilize both Somalia and parts of Kenya through guerrilla tactics, repeated IED strikes, and cross-border incursions. Their ability to operate in both rural strongholds and urban centers underscores resilience and intent to maintain pressure on security forces. The July incidents reaffirm the urgent need for coordinated counterterrorism operations, enhanced intelligence-sharing between Kenya and Somalia, and stronger community engagement to weaken Al-Shabaab’s local support and recruitment networks.

Terrorism Events – July 2025

1. At Baidoa, Bay region, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED at a Somali legislator’s residence and executed a raid. 31 July 2025.
2. At Janay Abdi, near Kismayo, Lower Juba, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting a Somali militia patrol. 31 July 2025.
3. At Siigaalle market, Baidoa city, Bay region, Al-Shabaab combatants targeted an SNA military base with an IED, inflicting casualties. 30 July 2025.
4. At Barsanjuni, near Kismayo, Lower Juba, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Somali militia forces. 30 July 2025.
5. At Afgooye, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Somali militia forces. 28 July 2025.
6. At Ailsha, Mogadishu area, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Somali militia forces. 28 July 2025.
7. At Maxaas, Hiran region, Al-Shabaab militants launched a combined armed assault and suicide IED attack, seizing control of the town. 27 July 2025.
8. At Number 60 area, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an explosive device against an AU-Ugandan convoy, striking a tanker truck. One soldier was killed and another injured. 26 July 2025.
9. At Basuba, Lamu region, Al-Shabaab militants probed a Kenya security outpost. No casualties reported. 26 July 2025.
10. At Saabid, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants conducted an armed assault against Ugandan forces and seized control. 25 July 2025.
11. At Afgooye, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants ambushed a joint SNA and AU-Ugandan convoy, killing at least seven soldiers and injuring others. 25 July 2025.
12. At Odweyne, Daynile District, Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED at a Somali militia checkpoint. 24 July 2025.
13. At Elasha Biyaha, Mogadishu outskirts, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a military vehicle carrying Riddada government troops. One soldier was killed and three wounded. 24 July 2025.
14. At Bobsow, near Maxaas, Hiran, Al-Shabaab militants conducted an armed assault against Somali militia forces. 23 July 2025.
15. At Bargid, near Baidoa, Bay, Al-Shabaab militants assaulted a Somali militia outpost. 23 July 2025.
16. At Beledweyne, Hiran, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Somali militia forces. 21 July 2025.
17. At Garbahaarrey district, Gedo, Al-Shabaab fighters attacked an SNA-operated camp. 21 July 2025.
18. At Ras Kamboni, Lower Juba, near the Kenya-Somalia border, Al-Shabaab militants attacked a joint SNA and AU troops’ camp, destroying equipment and supplies. 21 July 2025.
19. At Baidoa Airport, Bay, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Ethiopian soldiers. 20 July 2025.
20. At Janale, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants launched an armed assault against Ugandan forces. 19 July 2025.
21. At Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants conducted a kangaroo court and flogged civilians accused of adultery. 18 July 2025.
22. Near Kismayo, Lower Juba, Al-Shabaab militants detonated two IEDs targeting Somali security forces. 17 July 2025.
23. Between Sankuri and Kiunga, Lamu County, Kenya, Al-Shabaab militants ambushed Kenyan army forces. 17 July 2025.
24. At Buurane, Middle Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED, killing one Burundian soldier. 16 July 2025.
25. At Dinsoor, Bay, Al-Shabaab militants raided a military base in an armed assault. 16 July 2025.
26. At Weydow District, Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Somali militia forces. 16 July 2025.
27. At Siinka Dheer, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Somali police forces. 16 July 2025.
28. At Km 50, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED on Ugandan army forces. 15 July 2025.
29. Near Saabid, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants carried out a suicide IED attack on Ugandan forces. 15 July 2025.
30. At Dumsi and Milimani, Mandera and Lamu counties, Kenya, Al-Shabaab militants launched an armed assault against Kenyan army forces. 14 July 2025.
31. At Baidoa Airport, Bay, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Ethiopian forces. 14 July 2025.
32. At Baidoa, Bay, Al-Shabaab militants detonated two IEDs at a Somali intelligence building. 13 July 2025.
33. At Baidoa, Bay, Al-Shabaab militants conducted an armed assault against Somali militia forces. 13 July 2025.
34. At Terdo, near Jalalaqsi, Hiran, Al-Shabaab militants seized control of the area. 13 July 2025.
35. At Yaqshid District, Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED at a militia checkpoint. 11 July 2025.
36. At Afgooye, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting the 54th Battalion command, killing Lieutenant Colonel Mahmoud Suleiman and injuring his logistics officer. 11 July 2025.
37. Between Beledweyne and Balad, Hiran and Middle Shabelle, Al-Shabaab militants detonated two IEDs on Somali militia forces. 10 July 2025.
38. At Jaalle Siyaad Military College, Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab militants carried out a suicide IED attack. 9 July 2025.
39. At Qarsa Sare, Wajir County, Kenya, Al-Shabaab militants assassinated a Kenyan government official and his bodyguard. 8 July 2025.
40. At Dinsoor, Bay, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Somali militia forces. 8 July 2025.
41. On B9 road, between Mandera and Rhamu, Mandera County, Kenya, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED targeting Kenyan army forces. 8 July 2025.
42. At Mangai, Lamu County, Kenya, Al-Shabaab militants conducted an armed assault against Kenyan army forces. 6 July 2025.
43. At Wajid, Bakool, Al-Shabaab militants assaulted a Somali militia checkpoint. 6 July 2025.
44. Between Biyo Guduud and Barsanjuni, near Kismayo, Lower Juba, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED on Somali militia forces. 6 July 2025.
45. At Moqokori, Hiran, Al-Shabaab militants launched an armed assault on Somali militia forces. 5 July 2025.
46. At Gumarre and Hagri, near Moqokori, Hiran, Al-Shabaab militants seized control of both settlements. 5 July 2025.
47. At El Gulg, Mandera County, Kenya, Al-Shabaab militants detonated an IED on Kenyan army forces. 4 July 2025.
48. At Dinsoor, Bay, Somalia, Al-Shabaab militants launched an armed assault on Ethiopian forces. 4 July 2025.
49. At Moqokori, Hiran, Al-Shabaab militants executed a double-tap IED and armed assault on Somali militia forces. 4 July 2025.
50. At Guba, near Banissa, Mandera County, Kenya, Al-Shabaab militants conducted an armed assault on Kenyan army forces. 3 July 2025.
51. At Wajid, Bakool, Al-Shabaab militants launched an armed assault against a Somali militia checkpoint. 2 July 2025.

Analysis, Observation & Insights

Al-Shabaab sustained a steady operational tempo in July 2025, carrying out 51 documented attacks across Somalia and Kenya. This figure mirrors the pattern observed in preceding months, where the group consistently maintained slightly over 50 incidents, underscoring its resilience and capacity to wage prolonged insurgency. The ability to sustain this level of activity despite continuous military pressure reflects a functioning command structure and logistical system capable of supporting simultaneous strikes across dispersed theaters.

The attacks revealed clear geographical concentration, with Bay, Lower Shabelle, Hiran, and Mogadishu emerging as the most affected regions in Somalia. Baidoa experienced repeated incidents ranging from IED detonations to armed assaults, reinforcing its status as a vulnerable hub for both governance and military operations. In Kenya, Mandera, Lamu, and Wajir counties remained primary targets, consistent with Al-Shabaab’s established strategy of exploiting porous border areas and attacking isolated outposts where state presence is limited or overstretched.

The tactics employed during the month were dominated by improvised explosive devices, including roadside bombs, suicide operations, and double-tap attacks. These were frequently combined with armed assaults, ambushes, and assassinations, amplifying both lethality and psychological impact. Convoys, checkpoints, and fixed military positions were deliberately targeted to restrict freedom of movement and disrupt supply lines. The sustained reliance on IEDs highlights their role as Al-Shabaab’s weapon of choice, offering both cost-effectiveness and tactical advantage in asymmetric warfare.

Beyond battlefield operations, Al-Shabaab reinforced its dual strategy of insurgency and psychological control. The militants not only attacked military targets but also imposed extrajudicial punishments such as public floggings, consolidating influence over civilian populations. Temporary seizures of towns like Maxaas and Terdo served symbolic and propaganda purposes, projecting an image of strength and undermining government authority. These actions demonstrate intent to expand influence beyond rural sanctuaries into urban and semi-urban centers.

The persistence of these operations throughout July confirms Al-Shabaab’s adaptability and enduring threat capability. Its ability to maintain consistent attack levels, diversify tactics, and extend operations across borders presents a serious regional security challenge. The situation calls for enhanced intelligence-sharing between Somalia and Kenya, disruption of logistical supply chains, and improved surveillance of border corridors. Without sustained counterterrorism coordination and stronger community engagement to weaken recruitment networks, Al-Shabaab will continue exploiting vulnerabilities and destabilizing the Horn of Africa.