Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of May 1st – May 31st, 2025: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

The Al-Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group Al-Shabaab continues to pose a grave and persistent threat to regional stability in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia and Kenya. The group’s deadly insurgency, rooted in extremist ideology and long-standing grievances, has shown no signs of abating, despite counterterrorism operations led by Somali forces, The African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), and allied international partners. The month of May 2025 alone recorded over 50 distinct attacks perpetrated by Al-Shabaab, reaffirming the group’s strategic intent to disrupt governance, security, and socio-economic development across both countries.

A comprehensive review of attacks in May 2025 reveals a steady and alarming pattern of violence. These incidents span a wide geographic area and demonstrate a range of tactics, from improvised explosive device (IED) detonations to complex ambushes and direct assaults on military installations. The frequency of these attacks has remained consistently high throughout the year, underscoring the resilience and adaptability of the group. Notably, this sustained campaign of violence continues to challenge the operational capacity of both Kenyan and Somali security forces, despite improvements in coordination and intelligence sharing.

Al-Shabaab’s preferred methods of attack include the use of IEDs—ranging from roadside bombs to vehicle-borne explosives—targeting both military convoys and fixed installations. Suicide bombings, complex raids involving light and heavy arms, and targeted assassinations of government officials and security personnel are also common. The group has increasingly leveraged small arms, RPGs, and mortars to assault military bases, while employing concealed explosives to target civilians and public facilities. These tactics are designed to maximize casualties and psychological impact, particularly in densely populated areas and along critical infrastructure routes.

In Somalia, regions most vulnerable to Al-Shabaab’s violence include Lower Shabelle, Bay, Bakool, Hiran, and parts of Mogadishu. These areas have seen relentless attacks on Somali National Army (SNA) bases, African Union troops, and government buildings. In particular, districts such as Baidoa, Qoryooley, and Wajid have emerged as persistent flashpoints, with repeated attacks on convoys and forward operating bases. Notably, some attacks have targeted troops returning from training in Eritrea, raising concerns about infiltration and desertion within Somali forces.

Kenya has also not been spared from Al-Shabaab’s reach. The northeastern region, especially Mandera, Lamu, and Garissa counties, remains highly vulnerable due to its proximity to the Somali border. Security checkpoints, patrols, and civilian transport vehicles have frequently come under attack. The use of IEDs targeting Kenyan Defense Forces and local police in Mandera and Bodhei underscores the group’s focus on disrupting cross-border operations and fostering insecurity in frontier regions. Fatalities from such attacks have included security officers, bomb disposal experts, and occasionally civilians caught in the crossfire.

The human toll of Al-Shabaab’s violence remains deeply troubling. In May alone, dozens of lives were lost, including military personnel, intelligence officers, and innocent civilians. The group’s calculated targeting of public officials, recruitment centers, and health personnel highlights its broader aim of undermining public trust in the government. Despite this, ongoing efforts from both the Somali and Kenyan governments, supported by regional and international allies, continue to push back against the insurgency. However, the persistence and evolution of Al-Shabaab’s campaign demonstrate the urgent need for sustained military pressure, enhanced intelligence operations, and inclusive governance to undercut the group’s ideological and operational foothold.

Terrorism Events: May 1^st – May 31^st

1. May 31, 2025: Al-Shabaab militants raided Somali forces’ military barracks in Wadajir district, Mogadishu, killing eight troops.
2. May 30, 2025: Al-Shabaab launched an IED strike against SNA military barracks in Bulobarde, Hiran region. Casualties were reported.
3. May 30, 2025: An IED detonated by Al-Shabaab operatives targeted a Somali military installation in Baidoa, Bay region, killing one government soldier and injuring another.
4. May 29, 2025: A Somali forces troop trained in Eritrea surrendered to Al-Shabaab militants in Kurtunwaaray, Lower Shabelle.
5. May 28, 2025: Al-Shabaab raided two Ethiopian forces’ military bases in Dinsoor and Bardere, Bay and Gedo regions, inflicting losses.
6. May 28, 2025: Al-Shabaab ambushed Somali forces in Baidoa, Bay State, causing casualties.
7. May 27, 2025: Al-Shabaab militants raided an Ethiopian forces’ military base in Wajid, Bakool State.
8. May 26, 2025: An Al-Shabaab ambush in Bay region between Baidoa and Baru-jeetka killed two SNA troops.
9. May 25, 2025: Al-Shabaab claimed an IED attack in Buurane, Middle Shabelle, targeting Burundian AU soldiers, killing two.
10. May 25, 2025: An IED attack in Buulo-mareer, Lower Shabelle, targeted SNA forces at a checkpoint, killing one and injuring another.
11. May 24, 2025: An IED attack at Baidoa Airport killed two Ethiopian soldiers and wounded another.
12. May 24, 2025: Al-Shabaab attacked an Ethiopian-AU operated camp in Diinsoor district, Bay region, with heavy weapons.
13. May 23, 2025: Al-Shabaab launched an organized attack on the Ethiopian AU camp in Baardheere, Gedo region.
14. May 23, 2025: Al-Shabaab targeted Somali forces with an IED in Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle, inflicting casualties.
15. May 22, 2025: A Somali forces troop trained in Eritrea surrendered to Al-Shabaab militants in Lower Shabelle.
16. May 22, 2025: Al-Shabaab raided Somali and Ugandan forces’ military bases in Mogadishu, Afgoye, and Garbahaarrey.
17. May 20, 2025: Heavy mortar shelling hit Mogadishu; sirens were heard near Halane Compound.
18. May 19, 2025: Violent clashes between Al-Shabaab and Somali forces in Maqkoori, Hiran, killed 21 troops and injured 42.
19. May 19, 2025: Al-Shabaab attacked an AU troop camp at Number 60, Lower Shabelle, killing a Ugandan soldier.
20. May 18, 2025: A suicide bomber killed ten recruits at Damanyo military base, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
21. May 18, 2025: Al-Shabaab launched an artillery attack on the Hiilweyne SNA camp near Mogadishu.
22. May 17, 2025: A heavy explosion targeted Ethiopian forces at Baidoa Airport, killing three and injuring four.
23. May 16, 2025: Al-Shabaab targeted Ethiopian patrol with an IED near Wajid Airport, Bakool, causing serious injuries.
24. May 16, 2025: Al-Shabaab targeted a government official’s house in Marka district, Lower Shabelle.
25. May 16, 2025: An IED exploded at Barawe airport parking, killing two and injuring four. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
26. May 15, 2025: An IED attack on Ethiopian patrol near Wajid Airport, Bakool, caused serious injuries.
27. May 15, 2025: A bomb attack on SNA convoy near Baidoa killed one government soldier.
28. May 15, 2025: Al-Shabaab ambushed Somali forces with IEDs at Halane Base and Daynile, Mogadishu.
29. May 14, 2025: Al-Shabaab ambushed Somali forces with IEDs at Halane Base and Daynile, Mogadishu.
30. May 14, 2025: Al-Shabaab killed five Somali troops and injured eight in Adan Lahi, Ruunirgood, Middle Shabelle.
31. May 13, 2025: Al-Shabaab bombed SNA troops near Ceel Shale, Banadir, causing damage and injuries.
32. May 13, 2025: Al-Shabaab clashed with AU troops in Qoryooley, Lower Shabelle; casualties were reported.
33. May 13, 2025: Al-Shabaab ambushed Somali forces in Yasooman, Hiran, killing three and kidnapping one.
34. May 12, 2025: Al-Shabaab executed a Danab Brigade member in Buq Aqable, Hiran.
35. May 12, 2025: Al-Shabaab attacked a Somali army base in Adaan-Laxey, Ruunirgood, Middle Shabelle.
36. May 11, 2025: Al-Shabaab raided Ugandan military bases in Janale and Qoryoley, Lower Shabelle, inflicting heavy losses.
37. May 10, 2025: Al-Shabaab assassinated a Somali intelligence officer in Kahda, Mogadishu.
38. May 10, 2025: Al-Shabaab assassinated an intelligence officer near Afgoye.
39. May 9, 2025: Al-Shabaab attacked ATMIS base in Qoryooley district, Lower Shabelle.
40. May 9, 2025: Al-Shabaab targeted Riddada deputy head of security in Darussalam, Mogadishu. The official survived.
41. May 9, 2025: Al-Shabaab bombed a government official’s vehicle in Kaxda district, Mogadishu.
42. May 8, 2025: Al-Shabaab clashed with AU forces in Ambareeso, Barawe, using IEDs and light arms.
43. May 6, 2025: Al-Shabaab killed two Ethiopian soldiers with an IED near Baidoa.
44. May 6, 2025: Two IED blasts targeted Yaqshid and Wadajir districts, Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
45. May 5, 2025: Clashes between Al-Shabaab and Somali forces in Maqkoori and Tardo, Hiran, caused significant losses.
46. May 4, 2025: Al-Shabaab targeted two Kenyan checkpoints with IEDs in Mandera City, killing at least two experts.
47. May 3, 2025: An explosion near Baidoa killed two Ethiopian AU soldiers. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
48. May 3, 2025: Al-Shabaab targeted Ethiopian troops with an IED in Wajid, Bakool State.
49. May 3, 2025: Al-Shabaab bombed a government vehicle in Tareedisho, Mogadishu, killing three officers.
50. May 2, 2025: Al-Shabaab injured one SNA soldier in a gunfire attack near Afgooye, Lower Shabelle.
51. May 2, 2025: Explosions by Al-Shabaab targeted Kenyan forces in Mandera. Casualties reported.
52. May 1, 2025: Al-Shabaab claimed a battle with Kenyan forces in Bodhei and Borisa, Lamu region, killing five and injuring eight.

Analysis, Observation & Insights

An analysis of Al-Shabaab’s operational behavior in May 2025 reveals a highly coordinated, intelligence-informed insurgency campaign targeting both state and foreign military assets, as well as civilian infrastructures. The group executed over 50 separate attacks across Somalia and Kenya, demonstrating both scale and tactical diversity. The attacks were not random but strategically distributed across high-conflict regions, suggesting strong command-and-control structures and local networks feeding intelligence to the group. Notably, Al-Shabaab has demonstrated the capability to strike simultaneously in multiple locations, a trait typically associated with well-organized militant groups possessing both logistical depth and training.

Deeper observations reveal a sustained shift toward asymmetric warfare, primarily through the deployment of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and ambush tactics. In Somalia, attacks were concentrated in Lower Shabelle, Bay, Bakool, and Hiran—regions critical for supply routes and hosting forward operating bases of Somali National Army (SNA) and the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM). In Kenya, Mandera and Lamu counties bore the brunt of attacks, often through IED strikes at patrol routes and roadside ambushes. This choice of targets is not arbitrary—it reflects Al-Shabaab’s desire to disrupt military logistics, erode troop morale, and challenge government narratives of territorial control and stabilization.

Al-Shabaab’s intelligence apparatus appears increasingly effective, particularly in tracking troop movements and exploiting vulnerabilities in both local defense and allied foreign operations. The group’s precise targeting of officers returning from foreign training and attacks on government officials’ residences in urban zones such as Mogadishu suggests significant human intelligence penetration. Additionally, the group’s ability to execute deadly suicide bombings at recruitment centers, and coordinate complex assaults on African Union bases, points to enhanced planning and pre-operational surveillance capacities.

A critical intelligence insight is the group’s calculated use of propaganda to amplify psychological effects. By issuing claims through affiliated media shortly after attacks, Al-Shabaab amplifies its reach and recruits by showcasing success. Additionally, the growing sophistication of its assassination operations, such as those targeting Somali intelligence operatives in Mogadishu and Kahda, indicates the resurgence of its “Amniyat” unit—an internal intelligence wing tasked with surveillance, infiltration, and targeted killings.

The persistent targeting of AU forces, SNA units, and Kenyan security personnel reveals a long-term strategy to bleed out stabilization forces and discourage international support. Simultaneously, the group’s forays into urban areas and targeting of civil infrastructure hint at renewed efforts to assert control in contested zones, destabilize state legitimacy, and reclaim influence in local governance. The operational tempo and geographic spread reflect a hybrid strategy combining conventional insurgency with terrorist shock tactics, aimed at keeping regional states overstretched and politically fragmented.

Looking ahead, the next few months may see a rise in high-impact, urban-centered attacks as Al-Shabaab attempts to undermine public confidence and derail governance reforms—especially in areas preparing for local elections or troop realignment. The group is also likely to exploit trans-border vulnerabilities in Kenya, particularly around Mandera and Lamu, to provoke security overreach and retaliatory backlash that fuels further recruitment. Without sustained and integrated counterterrorism coordination—merging kinetic, intelligence, and community-driven approaches—Al-Shabaab’s operational footprint may expand further, threatening regional stability and eroding recent security gains in the Horn of Africa.