Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of April 1st – April 30th, 2025: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

Al-Shabaab, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated militant group, has significantly intensified its insurgency operations in Somalia, with a growing concentration of attacks in Mogadishu and its surrounding regions. The group has launched a series of high-impact assaults against Somali security forces, government figures, and critical infrastructure, indicating a deliberate and strategic offensive. Intelligence assessments reveal that Al-Shabaab is executing a coordinated campaign aimed at seizing Mogadishu by exploiting ongoing political divisions and deteriorating security conditions. The militants have entrenched themselves in Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle, using these regions as forward operating bases to steadily encroach upon the capital.

In April 2025, Al-Shabaab sustained its militant campaign with nearly the same intensity as in March, executing over 50 recorded attacks across Kenya and Somalia. This consistency in operational tempo underscores the group’s enduring capabilities despite counterterrorism operations. Of these attacks, Somalia remained the principal theatre of violence, suffering the vast majority of incidents, ranging from direct assaults on military installations to improvised explosive device (IED) ambushes and targeted assassinations. Kenya experienced relatively fewer but deadly incursions, with Mandera County once again emerging as the hotspot of Al-Shabaab’s operations within its borders.

In Somalia, Al-Shabaab heavily targeted the capital Mogadishu, Hiran, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Bay, Bakool, and Gedo regions, with multiple assaults reported almost daily in April. These areas have long been strategic both geographically and militarily, enabling the militants to ambush troop movements, overrun bases, and carry out artillery and IED attacks. Among the most intense clashes were the sieges in Adan Yabal (Middle Shabelle), the mortar bombardments in Mogadishu’s green zone, and the sustained raids in Hiran, where both government forces and regional troops suffered high casualties. Notably, Al-Shabaab also continued its pattern of targeting senior officials and executing alleged spies to instill fear and control in the civilian population.

Kenya’s Mandera County experienced some few incidents of Al-Shabaab cross-border violence in April, where at least three confirmed IED and ambush attacks targeted Kenyan security forces and civilians. On April 18 and 21, Al-Shabaab employed IEDs and armed assaults to target military convoys and trucks, killing and injuring soldiers, while on April 29, the group ambushed and killed five quarry workers in Bur Abor village. These incidents underscore Mandera’s vulnerability due to its porous border and proximity to Al-Shabaab strongholds in southern Somalia.

Al-Shabaab’s preferred tactics throughout April 2025 remained consistent with its long-established operational style. IEDs, ambushes, and direct assaults on military camps were the most frequently used methods, often complemented by artillery shelling and hit-and-run attacks. Urban attacks, including mortar and bomb strikes in Mogadishu, reflect the group’s capability to project power even in supposedly secure zones like the capital. Additionally, targeted assassinations—like the execution of a suspected government spy and the killing of local officials—suggest an ongoing campaign to undermine governmental authority and gather intelligence.

Terrorism Events: April 1^st – April 30^th

1. April 30, 2025: Fierce battles between Al-Shabaab and Somali National Army (SNA) forces took place in the outskirts of Moqokori district and Tardo area in eastern Hiran region. More than 20 government soldiers were killed or wounded.
2. April 30, 2025: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an ambush attack on AU-Ethiopian troops in Wajid, Bakool region. Injuries were reported.
3. April 29, 2025: Al-Shabaab’s self-styled court executed a suspected Somali government spy, Abdullahi Abdurrahman Ali, 27, in Agangi, Lower Shabelle.
4. April 29, 2025: Five quarry workers were ambushed and killed by Al-Shabaab in a morning attack while heading to work in Bur Abor village, Mandera East, Mandera County. Two others were injured.
5. April 28, 2025: Al-Shabaab militants raided a Somali forces gathering in Yasoman area, Hiran region, killing six troops, including intelligence officer Tama Jall’a.
6. April 28, 2025: Mortar fire struck Mogadishu’s heavily fortified Halane diplomatic zone early in the morning, causing multiple blasts. No casualties were immediately reported.
7. April 28, 2025: Al-Shabaab militants targeted a Somali forces military base with an improvised explosive device (IED) and also attacked a headquarters accommodating the Deputy Mayor of Baidoa in Jazeera, Mogadishu.
8. April 27, 2025: A special operation by Al-Shabaab in Baladxawo district, Gedo region, resulted in the death of a Somali government soldier.
9. April 27, 2025: An IED operation carried out by Al-Shabaab in the Yeed area of Bakool region targeted a Somalia government official meeting, causing an explosion at the site.
10. April 26, 2025: Al-Shabaab launched a direct assault on an Ethiopian military camp in Diinsoor district, Bay region. A heavy battle ensued, with casualties reported.
11. April 25, 2025: In Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab fighters launched a heavy direct assault on a Ugandan military camp in Qoryooley district. Both sides reported injuries.
12. April 25, 2025: Al-Shabaab’s bomb squad executed a planned attack on a military post in Luuq district, injuring three Somali government soldiers.
13. April 24, 2025: Al-Shabaab claimed to have overrun a military base in Wargaadhi, Middle Shabelle, killing 25 Danab soldiers. However, Somali authorities stated the attack was repelled.
14. April 23, 2025: Al-Shabaab launched a combined assault involving direct fire and artillery shelling on an SNA camp in Jazira, on the outskirts of Mogadishu. No casualty details were available.
15. April 22, 2025: Al-Shabaab militants targeted a Somali military checkpoint with an IED in Daynile district, Mogadishu.
16. April 21, 2025: Al-Shabaab targeted two Kenyan military vehicles and a truck with multiple IEDs in Mandera City, Kenya, resulting in heavy losses.
17. April 21, 2025: Ugandan forces were attacked by Al-Shabaab militants at their base in Janale, Lower Shabelle.
18. April 21, 2025: In the Elasha-Biyaha area, Lower Shabelle, Al-Shabaab carried out a combined assault on an SNA camp, killing two soldiers and wounding another.
19. April 20, 2025: Al-Shabaab’s bombing brigade targeted an SNA checkpoint in Siisii neighborhood, Daynile district, Mogadishu, killing one soldier and seriously injuring another.
20. April 20, 2025: Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched heavy direct combat against an AU troop base near Ambareeso, Barawe district, Lower Shabelle.
21. April 20, 2025: A heavy artillery attack was launched by Al-Shabaab on Somalia’s intelligence center (Habar-Khadijo) in Mogadishu, causing casualties.
22. April 19, 2025: Mortar rounds struck several districts in Mogadishu’s green zone, including Hamarwayne, Shibis, and Hamarjajab, resulting in casualties.
23. April 18, 2025: Al-Shabaab’s bomb squad in Mandera, Kenya, targeted a Kenyan military convoy leaving Omar Jilicow. The IED damaged a vehicle and caused unspecified injuries.
24. April 17, 2025: Heavy fighting broke out in Burjeedka, outside Baidoa in Bay region, following a dawn Al-Shabaab attack on Southwest state forces. Casualties were reported on both sides.
25. April 16, 2025: Al-Shabaab militants overran and seized all Somali military bases in Adan Yabal, Middle Shabelle.

1. April 16, 2025: A government official survived an IED assassination attempt in Garbahaarrey, Gedo region.
2. April 16, 2025: Al-Shabaab claimed the capture of Mubaax village near Moqokori district in Hiran region.
3. April 15, 2025: Al-Shabaab raided a Ugandan military base in Golweyn, Lower Shabelle.
4. April 14, 2025: The Deputy Mayor of Zabid, Mohamed Haji Jire, was assassinated by Al-Shabaab in Ailsha, Mogadishu.
5. April 14, 2025: Somali forces suffered losses in a militant raid on their base in Hudur, Bakool State.
6. April 13, 2025: Ethiopian military forces sustained losses following a raid by Al-Shabaab on their base in Dinsoor, Bay State.
7. April 11, 2025: Heavy clashes occurred between Somali forces and Al-Shabaab militants in Abore, Bulobarde, Hiran region, resulting in significant casualties.
8. April 10, 2025: Somali forces were targeted with two IEDs by Al-Shabaab in Beledweyne, Hiran region.
9. April 10, 2025: Al-Shabaab carried out an IED attack targeting a senior ENDF official near Wajid airport, Bakool region, resulting in deaths and injuries.
10. April 9, 2025: Somali troops suffered major losses following an Al-Shabaab bombardment on their base in Adan Yabal, Middle Shabelle.
11. April 9, 2025: Somali forces attempting to recapture the coastal city of Adale were repelled by Al-Shabaab, with several soldiers killed or wounded.
12. April 9, 2025: A heavy artillery attack was launched on an SNA camp in Hiilweyne, along the road between Mogadishu and Balcad. Casualty details remain unknown.
13. April 8, 2025: Al-Shabaab took control of the town of Abore, Bulobarde, Hiran region without a fight as Somali troops fled.
14. April 8, 2025: Two explosions targeted SNA forces in the Bunda-wayn neighborhood of Beledweyne, injuring one soldier.
15. April 8, 2025: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the killing of Asad Osman Afrah, commander of the U.S.-trained Danab Special Forces, in an ambush near Bulo-Burde, Hiran region.
16. April 7, 2025: Al-Shabaab militants targeted the UN Headquarters and Halane military base in Mogadishu with IEDs.
17. April 7, 2025: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s palace was attacked during a counterterrorism meeting.
18. April 7, 2025: Overnight clashes erupted in Elasha, 15 kilometers southwest of Mogadishu, following a militant assault on a military outpost.
19. April 7, 2025: Four soldiers were injured following a heavy Al-Shabaab assault involving direct and artillery attacks on an SNA base in the Arbacow area.
20. April 6, 2025: An IED attack by Al-Shabaab killed all troops aboard a Ugandan military convoy in Lower Shabelle’s 60 Km area.
21. April 7, 2025: Al-Shabaab claimed the killing of three Burundian soldiers in an IED explosion near Burane, Middle Shabelle.
22. April 5, 2025: Somali forces in Beled Hawo, Gedo region, were injured in an IED attack by Al-Shabaab.
23. April 5, 2025: A senior Somali army commander was killed in Afgoye in a suspected militant infiltration attack.
24. April 4, 2025: A barrage of mortar shells hit Somalia’s presidential compound and surrounding residential areas in Wardhigley district, wounding several civilians.
25. April 4, 2025: Al-Shabaab targeted a convoy of AU troops near Shalambood, Lower Shabelle, killing one Ugandan and one SNA soldier, and injuring three other Ugandan soldiers.
26. April 3, 2025: Heavy losses were reported among AU peacekeepers after IED explosions targeted them near Area Number 60, Lower Shabelle. Three were killed and two others wounded.
27. April 3, 2025: Somali forces in Adan Yabal, Middle Shabelle, were attacked with an IED, resulting in casualties.
28. April 2, 2025: Violent clashes between Somali forces and Al-Shabaab in Afgoye, Lower Shabelle, left 19 troops dead, 14 injured, and multiple weapons seized by the militants.

Analysis, Observation & Insights

1. Tactical Evolution and Battlefield Adaptability

Al-Shabaab’s recent operations in Somalia, especially in Abooreey village in Hiraan region, reflect a clear evolution in its combat strategy. The group has embraced insurgency tactics that blend guerrilla warfare with conventional defenses, utilizing underground bunkers, landmines, and sniper units to repel government offensives and allied airstrikes. The militants’ use of the local terrain to establish fortified positions has not only neutralized the government’s superior firepower but also increased casualties and prolonged engagements. In areas like Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle, the group’s shift from hit-and-run raids to holding and governing captured towns marks a significant departure from earlier patterns of retreat following territorial gains.

2. Operational Goals and Strategic Control

Al-Shabaab’s actions in April 2025 suggest a clear strategic intention: to encircle Mogadishu and disrupt federal command and control operations. The seizure and retention of key infrastructure—such as the Awdheegle, Bariire, and Sabiib & Caanole bridges—have effectively hampered the Somali National Army’s mobility and logistics. This calculated obstruction of supply routes is designed to choke government troop reinforcements and slow down response times, giving the militants an upper hand in long-term planning. Additionally, the growing list of towns under militant governance such as Cali Fooldheere and Mansuur indicates an effort to establish a contiguous buffer zone around the capital.

3. Political Subversion and Resource Mobilization

Counterterrorism efforts must account for Al-Shabaab’s expanding political influence. Beyond battlefield tactics, the group is actively engaged in a campaign of financial bribery and ideological recruitment targeting Somali government insiders, tribal elders, and army officers. With intelligence sources estimating Al-Shabaab’s bribery and recruitment fund at $20–30 million, the risk of internal subversion has become more acute. This internal threat complicates military planning, as leaks and compromised operations can derail even well-coordinated offensives. The group’s ability to incentivize defection also highlights its access to illicit funding sources and control of shadow economies.

4. Cross-Border Threats and Kenyan Vulnerability

In Kenya, Al-Shabaab has maintained its lethal footprint, particularly in Mandera County. Multiple IED ambushes targeting Kenyan military convoys and civilian laborers reveal a continued focus on destabilizing border communities and discouraging economic activity. The April 2025 killing of quarry workers and coordinated IED strikes in Mandera suggest a sustained campaign aimed at eroding public trust in state protection. Moreover, the attacks serve dual purposes: projecting power across borders while distracting Kenyan security forces from reinforcing Somalia’s fragile security corridor. The operational overlap between Kenyan and Somali territories requires deeper intelligence integration and enhanced joint border security measures.

5. Counterterrorism Outlook and Recommendations

The April 2025 trendlines indicate that Al-Shabaab is transitioning from an insurgency to a proto-governing actor, capable of defending territory, administering justice, and collecting revenue in some regions. This shift poses an existential threat to the Somali federal state. To counter this, a multipronged approach is necessary:

• Military: Intensify targeted airstrikes and special forces operations against high-value targets in Al-Shabaab strongholds, especially underground complexes.
• Intelligence: Strengthen HUMINT and SIGINT capabilities to detect internal infiltration and anticipate insurgent logistics.
• Infrastructure Protection: Reclaim and secure key transport routes and bridges to restore SNA mobility and supply chains.
• Diplomatic: Resolve regional tensions, particularly with Ethiopia, to avoid diplomatic distractions that hinder unified security operations.
• International Support: Increase coordination with ATMIS and the U.S. AFRICOM command to preempt the collapse of federal authority in Mogadishu.

Conclusion and Recommendations

In sum, April 2025 reaffirmed Al-Shabaab’s continued threat across East Africa, with Somalia bearing the brunt of its brutality. The group’s ability to strike both rural and urban areas, adapt its tactics, and maintain operational reach across borders illustrates why it remains a primary security challenge for both Somalia and Kenya. Without sustained and coordinated counterterrorism efforts involving regional and international partners, regions like Lower Shabelle, Hiran, and Mandera will likely continue to experience Al-Shabaab’s relentless insurgency.