Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, and DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists for the Month of January 2025

Executive Summary

In January 2025, Islamic State-affiliated groups escalated their terrorist activities across East and Central Africa, with Mozambique, Somalia, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) witnessing significant violence.

In Mozambique, the Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) continued targeting civilians, executing Christians, and ambushing security forces in Cabo Delgado province. The group intensified attacks in Palma, Macomia, and Meluco districts, including the beheading of individuals at an unlicensed gold mine and kidnappings in Mocimboa da Praia. Despite the presence of Rwandan and Mozambican troops, their response has been limited, allowing insurgents to regroup and expand westward. Additionally, the suspension of U.S. foreign aid may exacerbate humanitarian challenges, further destabilizing the region.

In Somalia, the Islamic State-Somalia (ISS) focused its operations in Puntland, particularly in the Bari region, using IEDs, rocket strikes, and armed assaults against Puntland Security Forces (PSF). The group engaged in multiple clashes in Walisoor River Valley and Cal Miskaat in the Abara Mountains. Counterterrorism efforts intensified, with U.S. airstrikes dismantling ISS hideouts and the Puntland government implementing measures to disrupt IS financial networks. However, despite these efforts, ISS remains resilient, with militants retreating into remote areas.

In Uganda, the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) claimed responsibility for an IED attack in Buikwe District that killed two civilians and a confrontation with Ugandan forces in Kayunga District. The group’s ability to strike inside Uganda highlights ongoing security vulnerabilities and the potential for cross-border threats.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), ISCAP conducted a series of mass killings, abductions, and armed assaults, primarily in North Kivu and Ituri provinces. The group targeted Christian communities, with the most significant attack occurring in Makoko Village, where 41 individuals were brutally executed. ISCAP also ambushed joint Congolese (FARDC) and Ugandan (UPDF) forces, demonstrating its operational resilience despite counterterrorism efforts. The scale and brutality of attacks indicate that ISCAP retains strong footholds in these regions, posing a persistent threat to civilians and security forces alike.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 27^th Jan– several Christians were injured after ISM militants led an armed assault in Pundanhar area in Palma district.
•  27^th Jan- ISM insurgents beheaded at least three people at an unlicensed gold mine in the Meluco district.
• 26^th Jan– ISM militants captured and executed 5 civilians near Ravia in Meluco District.
• 23^rd Jan– at least 7 children all male were kidnapped by ISM in Mumu in Mocimboa da Praia (MDP) district.
• 19^th Jan– ISM conducted an armed assault that led to the torching if a truck travelling from Mocimboa da Praia to Macomia.
• 19^th Jan– several Christians were captured and executed by ISM rebels in Mienguleia in Muidumbe district.
•  18^th Jan- one person was captured and beheaded by ISM near Miangelwa in Macomia district.
• 16^th Jan- three people were kidnapped by ISM militant near Miangelwa in Macomia district.
• 9^th Jan- ISM militants led an armed assault against civilians in Criação, Muidumbe District.
•  09^th Jan– the village of 5º Congresso in Macomia district was attacked by Ism rebels causing panic and tensions.
• 04^th Jan- Mozambican troops in Kitrago in Macomia district were attacked by ISM militants who later claimed the attack.
• 04^th Jan- ISM claimed responsibility for an attack on a FADM outpost in Quiterajo and for the death of one soldier.

SOMALIA

• 25^th Jan– Puntland forces neutralizes ISS militant of Yemeni origin who was planting IEDs on the military routes in Bosaso in Bari region.
• 24^th Jan- ISS detonated an IED targeting Puntland Security forces near Walisoor River Valley in Balidhidin in Bari region.
• 23^rd Jan– ISS militants conducted an armed assault against Puntland Security forces near Walisoor River Valley in Balidhidin in Bari region.
• 23^rd Jan- ISM terrorists detonated and IED targeting Puntland Security forces vehicle in Cal Miskaat in Abara Mountains in Bari Region.
• 23^rd Jan– ISS militants fired another round of rockets at Puntland Security forces near Walisoor River Valley in Balidhidin in Bari region.
• 23^rd Jan- ISS militants clashed with Puntland security forces near Walisoor River Valley in Balidhidin in Bari region.
• 22^nd Jan- ISS militants fired rockets at Puntland Security forces near Walisoor River Valley in Balidhidin in Bari region.
• 20^th Jan- an ISS IED targeted Puntland Forces pick-up truck as the forces conducted a counterterrorism operation in Habli, near Ufeyn in Bari region.
• 19^th Jan- ISS militants clashed with Puntland Security Forces in the Walisoor River Valley in Balidhidin, Bari Region.
• 16^th Jan– ISM terrorists bombed Puntland Security forces with a mortar strike in Cal Miskaat in Abara Mountains in Bari Region.
• 14^th Jan– ISM terrorists conducted an armed assault against Puntland Security forces in Cal Miskaat in Abara Mountains in Bari Region.
• 14^th Jan– ISS led an armed assault against a Puntland Security forces vehicle in Cal Miskaat in Abara Mountains in Bari Region.
• 13^th Jan- ISS led an armed assault against a Puntland Security forces positions near Cal Miskaat in Abara Mountains in Bari Region.
• 13^th Jan– ISM militants led a double attack comprised of IED and Armed assault on Puntland patrols in the Cal Miskaat in Abara Mountains in Bari Region.
• 13^th Jan- Puntland security forces and US air forces dismantled 5 ISS hideouts during operations in Bari region.
• 12^th Jan- ISS militants detonated an IED targeting Puntland forces near Timirshe in Bari mountains.

UGANDA

• 13^th Jan- ISCAP terrorist group detonated an IED targeting civilians in Triangle in Buikwe District in Uganda. At least two people were killed in the incident.
• 03^rd Jan- ISCAP claimed responsibility for clashes with Ugandan soldiers in Misanga village, Kayunga district stating that military patrols attempted to advance on IS positions. IS alleged that its fighters ambushed the soldiers, killing six and two intelligence officers, with the rest fleeing.

THE DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO

• 28^th Jan- several people were injured after ISCAP militants launched an attacked on civilians in Kala Langwi in Lubero District in North Kivu.
• 28^th Jan- 3 Christians were captured and executed by ISCAP in Biambe village in Lubero.
• 27^th Jan- ISCAP terrorists captured and killed several villagers between Biambe and Kanzuka areas in Lubero.
• 26^th Jan- 2 people were captured and executed by ISCAP militants in Maiba area in Lubero.
• 25^th Jan- one person was captured and executed by ISCAP militants in Mambelenga area in Ituri Province.
• 24^th Jan- one person was beheaded by ISCAP in Mahala village in Ituri province.
• 22^nd Jan- 5 Christians were captured and killed by ICAP rebels in Ndimo region in Ituri Province
• 21^st Jan- 11 Christians were captured and killed by ICAP rebels in Biakato region in Ituri Province.
• 21^st Jan- ISCAP led an armed assault against civilians in Abindi area in Ituri Province.
• 20^th Jan- 10 Christians were captured and killed by ICAP rebels in Biakato region in Ituri Province.
• 19^th Jan- one person was captured and executed by ISCAP fighters in Mungi region in Ituri.
• 16^th Jan- joint FARDC and UPDF troops were attacked by ISCAP near Kediwe area in North Kivu.
• 16^th Jan- ISCAP led an armed assault against civilian targets in Mulambi area in Lubero, North Kivu.
• 16^th Jan- ISCAP militants captured and executed two people in Makoko village in Lubero.
• 15^th Jan- at least 41 Christians were attacked and killed by knife-wielding ISCAP terrorists in Makoko Village, Lubero.
• 14^th Jan- ISCAP conducted an armed attack against the populace in Masakuki area in Lubero district.
• 12^th Jan- ISCAP militants captured and executed three people in Demobi village in Lubero.
• 12^th Jan- ISCAP militants captured and executed one Christian in Boikene village in North Kivu Province.
• 11^th Jan- ISCAP militants orchestrated an armed attack against civilians in Boikene area in North Kivu.
• 7^th Jan- at least 13 people were captured and executed by ISCAP terrorists in Ofaye Otto Maber in Ituri.
• 6^th Jan- Militants led an armed assault against Christians in Loselose area in North Kivu.
• 03^RD Jan- two people were brutally executed by ISCAP in Matuna area in Lubero.
• 02^nd Jan- two people captured and brutally executed by ISCAP in Matuna area in Lubero.
• 01^st Jan- several people were caught and killed by ISCAP near Mbunia village in Lubero.
• 01^st Jan- ISCAP militants clashed with Congolese troops in Maiba area in Lubero.

ANALYSIS AND INSIGHTS

SOMALIA

Islamic State-Somalia (ISS) militants have escalated attacks against Puntland security forces in Bari region, using IEDs, rocket strikes, and armed assaults, particularly around Walisoor River Valley and Cal Miskaat in Abara Mountains. Clashes have been frequent, with multiple ISS attacks occurring between January 12 and 25, including ambushes, mortar strikes, and vehicle-targeted bombings. In response, Puntland forces, supported by US airstrikes, dismantled five ISS hideouts and intensified counterterrorism operations. A key success was the elimination of a Yemeni ISS militant attempting to plant IEDs near Bosaso, highlighting ongoing efforts to disrupt militant activities in the region. US airstrikes in Somalia’s Golis Mountains killed key IS figures, supporting Puntland’s ongoing counterterrorism efforts. Puntland authorities praised US involvement, emphasizing its crucial role in targeting senior IS leaders as part of a coordinated operation with the Somali government.

Puntland security forces have intensified efforts to dismantle IS-Somalia’s presence in the Cal Miskaad Mountains by enlisting local clans for intelligence gathering. Following a deadly attack on a military base, authorities launched Operation Hillaac, a large-scale counterterrorism campaign emphasizing civilian cooperation. At the same time, Puntland has targeted IS financial networks, banning undocumented individuals from accessing SIM cards and banking services to disrupt funding. Military offensives in key mountainous areas have pushed IS fighters into remote regions, but concerns persist over profiling and the group’s resilience. While Puntland seeks greater international support, long-term success will depend on sustained financial tracking and intelligence-sharing.

MOZAMBIQUE

Insurgent activity has continued across Cabo Delgado over the past two weeks, with attacks, abductions, and movements reported primarily north of the Messalo River. Despite these incidents occurring near military positions, state forces, including the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) and Mozambique’s military (FADM), have failed to respond. However, across the border, Tanzanian forces increased patrols and conducted security checks. In January marked ISM’s first activity in Pundanhar since June, when a man was beheaded in the area. In Muidumbe district, ISM militants attacked two trucks carrying food aid and mosquito nets prompted the reintroduction of military escorts on the highway.

Beyond individual attacks, ISM appears to be regrouping and shifting westward. On January 17, around 50 insurgents crossed the N380 into Meluco district, with another group observed making the same movement on January 23. In the days following, nearly 40 insurgents passed through Minhanha, but their current location remains unknown. Tensions between civilians and security forces have also surfaced. In Chiúre district, villagers in Mazeze confronted soldiers with machetes and rocks, forcing them to withdraw. Meanwhile, in the south of the province, post-election disorder has subsided, though crime has taken advantage of the unrest.

Despite RDF and FADM maintaining a presence in Cabo Delgado, their military operations have notably decreased. In Macomia, sources describe a complex security environment where displaced civilians are beginning to return, even as ISM maintains a discreet presence. Reports indicate that insurgents have been spotted in Pangane, just north of Mucojo, where they have preached, cooked, and purchased supplies from locals. While the district’s permanent secretary, Alberto Cristóvão, claims the security situation is stable, the continued activity of ISM suggests otherwise. The restrained posture of RDF in Cabo Delgado may be linked to broader geopolitical concerns. With Rwanda under scrutiny for its involvement in the M23 offensive in the Democratic Republic of Congo, further military action in Mozambique could risk additional international condemnation. This, coupled with Mozambique’s volatile election period, may explain why RDF operations have been scaled back.

Internationally, the suspension of US foreign aid could have serious consequences for Mozambique. President Donald Trump’s executive order pausing global assistance for 90 days affects the more than $500 million allocated to Mozambique last year, much of which supported humanitarian efforts in Cabo Delgado. The suspension also impacts the UN’s humanitarian response plan, which relied on US funding for 60% of its budget in 2024.

Domestically, President Daniel Chapo has reshuffled key security positions, dismissing long-time police chief Bernardino Rafael and replacing him with Joaquim Adriano Sive. The new appointment follows Interior Minister Paulo Chachine’s call for law enforcement to restore public trust. A new intelligence chief is also expected to be named soon, though the head of the Mozambican armed forces is likely to remain unchanged for now.

Meanwhile, counterterrorism operations in East Africa have led to multiple arrests. On January 27, Interpol announced the detention of 37 suspects linked to Islamic State and al-Shabaab across eight countries. Among them, two individuals in Tanzania were specifically connected to ISM.

The overall security landscape in Cabo Delgado remains fragile. Insurgents continue to operate with little military resistance, and their ability to regroup and shift locations indicates that the conflict is far from contained. The suspension of US aid may exacerbate humanitarian conditions, while political changes in Mozambique suggest an effort to reform security structures. However, whether these shifts will translate into a more effective counterinsurgency strategy remains uncertain.

D.R. CONGO

Escalation of Violence and Targeted Attacks The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) witnessed a surge in attacks perpetrated by the Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) throughout January 2025, particularly in the provinces of North Kivu and Ituri. The group’s operations were characterized by a mix of mass killings, targeted executions, and direct assaults on both civilians and security forces.

Geographical Concentration of Attacks ISCAP activities were heavily concentrated in Lubero District (North Kivu) and Ituri Province. The Lubero district experienced multiple mass killings, including the execution of at least 41 Christians in Makoko Village on January 15. Additionally, the Biakato and Ndimo regions in Ituri saw the execution of 26 Christians between January 20 and 22. The high frequency of attacks in these areas suggests that ISCAP maintains strong operational footholds, using these regions as strategic bases for launching offensives.

Tactical Patterns and Target Selection A distinct pattern emerges from the attacks:

• Targeting of Christians: A significant portion of ISCAP’s violence focused on executing Christians, particularly in Ituri Province. This aligns with the group’s ideological motives and past targeting of religious minorities.
• Civilian Massacres: The use of knives and beheadings in several instances, such as in Mahala (January 24) and Makoko (January 15), indicates an intention to instill fear and exert control over local populations.
• Ambushes on Security Forces: The January 16 attack on joint FARDC (Congolese army) and UPDF (Ugandan army) troops near Kediwe demonstrates ISCAP’s capability to confront military units, signaling resilience despite ongoing counterinsurgency operations.
• Village Raids and Executions: Many incidents involved systematic executions following village raids, reflecting ISCAP’s strategy of eliminating resistance and deterring collaboration with security forces.

Implications for Regional Security The intensification of ISCAP attacks in January 2025 underscores significant security challenges for both the Congolese government and regional security forces. Despite joint military operations, ISCAP remains capable of executing coordinated, high-casualty attacks. The persistence of violence in North Kivu and Ituri threatens broader regional stability, as the conflict risks spilling over into neighboring Uganda and beyond. Additionally, the increasing brutality of executions suggests an effort to reinforce ISCAP’s influence amid counterterrorism efforts.

Strategic Recommendations To effectively counter ISCAP’s continued threat, strengthened joint operations between FARDC, UPDF, and regional partners are necessary, alongside improved intelligence-sharing and coordinated military actions. Security deployments must be increased in high-risk areas such as Lubero and Ituri to better protect vulnerable communities and prevent further massacres. A comprehensive approach to counter ISCAP’s extremist ideology through community engagement and local governance initiatives is crucial to undermining its recruitment base. Additionally, humanitarian aid should be prioritized to support affected populations and mitigate the impact of ongoing violence. Without decisive military, intelligence, and socio-political interventions, ISCAP is likely to continue its destabilizing attacks in the region.

CONCLUSION

The January 2025 counterterrorism intelligence brief highlights the growing threat posed by Islamic State-affiliated groups across East and Central Africa. ISM in Mozambique continues to exploit gaps in military responses, while ISS in Somalia demonstrates its ability to challenge Puntland’s security apparatus. ISCAP’s attacks in Uganda and the DRC underscore its operational reach and intent to destabilize the region.

While regional counterterrorism efforts, including U.S. airstrikes and joint military operations, have achieved tactical successes, insurgents remain adaptable, shifting locations and tactics to evade security forces. The reduction of international aid, particularly in Mozambique, further complicates efforts to address the root causes of instability.

To counter these threats effectively, governments must enhance regional collaboration, improve intelligence-sharing, and strengthen local security structures. Additionally, targeted financial measures to disrupt IS funding networks and increased humanitarian aid to affected populations are critical in preventing further radicalization and insurgent expansion. Without sustained and coordinated action, IS-affiliated groups will continue exploiting security gaps, prolonging instability in East and Central Africa.