Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of April 1st – April 30th, 2024: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

In month of April 2024, Kenya and Somalia have experienced a surge in terror activities, with Al-Qaeda associated Al-Shabaab and other militant factions carrying out deadly and persistent attacks. These attacks have targeted military bases, civilian populations, and government installations, resulting in notable casualties and widespread fear. In response, security forces in both countries have intensified their efforts to counter the threat posed by these groups.

Al-Shabaab militants have escalated their attacks against government security forces and the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) forces. This increase in activity is attributed to a lull in government-backed operations, caused by factional divisions within the coalition, especially between the Hawadle and Abgal clans. Al-Shabaab has intensified its presence in Hirshabelle, focusing on areas along the Shabelle river, near the Cali Fool Dheere forest, and around villages between Balcad and Mogadishu.

Somali security forces and allied clan militias have responded with intermittent raids against Al-Shabaab in the southern part of Mudug and Lower Shabelle regions, the latter being al-Shabaab’s operational center in central Somalia. Government operations in Lower Shabelle have targeted al-Shabaab hideouts to disrupt the militants’ financial flows, as they collect taxes from passenger vehicles and commercial trucks along main supply roads. Al-Shabaab has retaliated by attacking security forces and their bases, including running taxation checkpoints near Busley village to extort money from Mogadishu-bound vehicles.

In Middle Shabelle and Hiran regions, Al-Shabaab has regrouped and advanced towards government-controlled towns, even recapturing Daaru Nicma village in Middle Shabelle. An attack on security forces and allied clan militia at a base near Daaru Nicma village resulted in the militants briefly taking over the base, killing 67 people, including a senior government commander. Al-Shabaab has also targeted ATMIS forces in the region, killing two Burundian soldiers in an IED attack in Buurane village.

In Kenya Al-Shabaab insurgents have targeted military convoys and bases, as well as civilian areas, using ambushes and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to inflict damage and casualties. The attacks in Lamu and Mandera counties, as well as other regions along the Somali border, have highlighted the vulnerability of Kenya’s security forces to these tactics. The Kenyan government has continually responded by deploying additional troops and resources to these terror prone areas and has called for increased vigilance among the population.

The recent terror activities in Kenya and Somalia highlight the persistent threat posed by the Al-Qaeda affiliated insurgent group in the region. The attacks serve as a reminder of the need for both countries to remain vigilant and proactive in their efforts to combat terrorism. By deploying robust counterterrorism measures and addressing the root causes of extremism, Kenya and Somalia can mitigate the threat posed by these groups and ensure a safer future for their citizens. In the period under review, the militant group has waged at least 57 attacks, with brutal lion share of operations happening in the group’s homebase, Somalia.

Terrorism Events: April 1^st – April 30^th

• On April 29, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed a roadside explosion that targeted ATMIS troops in Ceel Qalow near Halane. No details on casualties were provided.
• On April 29, 2024, an explosion targeted an army vehicle in Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab Mujahideen Bombing Brigade operating in the Banadir region claimed credit for the targeted IED that injured SNA soldiers.
• On April 29, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an artillery attack on SNA troops in Jazira area on the outskirts of Mogadishu. 3 Soldiers injured.
• On April 29, 2024, Terrorism Incident reported in Elwak, Mandera County NER of Kenya. 12 people killed and several others injured by a donkey borne IED outside the police station.
• On April 28, 2024, an IED blast was reported in Mogadishu’s Dayniile district, targeting a military vehicle passing through a main route leading to the Tarbunka junction.
• On April 29, 2024. Mujahideen forces claimed to have fought a heavy battle in the camp of the African forces – ATMIS, especially targeting the Ugandan ones in the Janale district of Lower Shabelle. No casualties reported.
• On April 28, 2024, six employees of Hormuud Telecommunication company were killed in an Al-Shabaab suspected explosion near Mogadishu, as reported by Hormuud officials. There has been a recent surge in targeted attacks against Hormuud.
• On April 27, 2024, A blast from an improvised explosive device (IED) has been reported in Boondheere district, Mogadishu. Sources indicate that at least five individuals, including children, have sustained injuries in the explosion.
• On April 27, 2024, an explosion, suspected to be from an improvised explosive device (IED), has occurred in Waberi district near the waberi police headquarter.
• In April 27, 2024, Tragically, on the outskirts of Mogadishu in Ceelasha Biyaha, an Al-Shabaab bomb blast claimed the lives of at least four people, including three young children.
• On April 27,2024, reports have surfaced indicating that Al-Shabaab militant entered and recaptured the village of Ciidciidka, which is situated within a dense forest area near Mahadaay district of the Middle Shabelle region.
• On April 26, 2024, Mortar shelling reported in several districts of Mogadishu including Shibis and Yaqshid causing injuries of at least five.
• On April 26, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked government soldiers camp in Barsanguni area on the outskirts of Kismayo city of Lower Juba. Three soldiers injured.
• On April 25, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed a direct attack on SNA soldiers in the vicinity of Janale, Lower Shabelle. Two soldiers killed.
• On April 25, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attack on ATMIS-Burundian troops in the general area of ​​Hawadley, Middle Shabelle, Somalia. Unknown number of casualties reported.
• On April 24, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 3 Kenya security officers in an IED explosion between Ishaakaani and Kaam Salaama of Lamu county.
• On April 24, 2024, the Mujahideen forces in the Galmudug area claimed that they killed Somalia senior government official named Ahmed Ibrahim Ali.
• On April 23, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed to have taken an assassination operation in Karaan district and the Mujahideen forces killed a government official identified as Muhiyedin Ulusow Soubiye.
• On April 19, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched an ambush attack on SNA soldiers traveling on their motorbikes from Dinsoor to Baydhaba town. The militants killed one soldier and seized his motorbike.

  

• On April 18, 2024, Al-Shabaab Militants Captured Somali State-Backed SNA Member in Dinsoor, locality of Bay, Somalia.
• On April 18, 2024, Al-Shabaab Militants Killed 13 SNA solders and Wounded 18 others in a deadly counterstrike, in Werkwe, Kismayo of Lower Juba, Somalia.
• On April 17, 2024, targeted government troops in Garasbaalley area on the outskirts of Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On April 16, 2024, In Gedo, the Mujahideen explosives brigade claimed to have targeted ATMIS patrolling in Beledhawo district. Injuries reported.
• On April 16, 2024, A-Shabaab Mujahideen forces claimed to have briefly targeted security forces on patrol routine duties in Sanga-Iilow town in the Garisa region, NER.
• On April 15, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed to have carried out a planned an explosive operation targeting the checkpoints of the SNA troops in the outskirts of Kaxhda district of Mogadishu.
• On April 15, 2024, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have ambushed a JSF military base near the town of Kamboni in Jubaland, Lower Juba Somalia, resulting in the deaths of 3 soldiers.
• On April 14, 2024, insurgents claimed to have engaged SNA troops in a fierce battle in Beero-yabaal area near the town of Buulo-burte in the Hiran region. Casualties were reported, including 3 soldiers taken as Prisoners of War (PoWs).
• An April 13, 2024, Fighters from the Mujahideen working in the Banadir region launched a heavy attack targeting the defected soldiers’ base in Kaxda district of Mogadishu resulting in a fierce battle involving various types of weapons.
• On April 13, 2024, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen fighters from the Lower Shabelle region conducted a coordinated attack involving a car bomb targeting an African Union troops’ camp operated by the Ugandan forces in the Shalambood area.
• On April 11, 2024, Al-Shabaab attempted to launch an attack on Baarsanguni on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba. While the militants had previously managed to overrun the base, Jubbaland reported foiling a major attack this time, killing many Al-Shabaab fighters, and have released videos of POWs of Al-Shabaab militants.
• On April 10, 2024, A Kenyan military vehicle was ambushed and destroyed in Lamu in a targeted attack by insurgents. The militants targeted the military vehicles traveling between the towns of Hindi and Wito. Al-Shabaab Mujahideen claimed the attack killed two Kenyan soldiers and destroyed two vehicles.
• On April 9, 2024, In Mandera, a county in the North Eastern Province of Kenya, the military forces of the Al-Shabaab claimed a brief probing attack on a military base housing Kenyan soldiers in the town of El Wak in Mandera County.
• On April 9, 2024, Al-Shabaab assassins eliminated Gaabow Buulle Hasan, who served as the deputy commissioner for Security and Political Affairs in the Awdheegle district of Shabelle, in Mogadishu’s district of Wadajir.
• On April 8, 2024, In Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, there have been reports of mortar shells landing in the Warta Nabada district, near the presidential palace. At least three Al-Shabaab explosions suspected to be mortar shells have been reported in the vicinity of the presidential palace.
• On April 8, 2024, Al-Shabaab militants launched a hit-and-run ambush against an Ethiopian military base in Halgan town, located in the Hiran region. The militants utilized RPGs during the attack.
• On April 7, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed to have launched an armed assault on Bal’ad Town, overrunning the National Security Intelligence Agency’s (NISA) Base, Bal’ad Town, Northern Mogadishu, Middle Shabelle, Somalia.
• On April 7, 2024, Also, Al-Shabaab insurgents claimed a major attack on Baghdad village in the Lower Shabelle region.
• On April 7, 2024, An IED explosion occurred in Buurane village in the Middle Shabelle region, targeting a Burundian military convoy. Al-Shabaab militants have claimed credit for the attack, stating that it resulted in the deaths of two Burundian soldiers.
• On April 7, 2024, an attack conducted by the Al-Shabaab militants today targeted a checkpoint in the village of Daaru-nicma in Middle Shabelle, resulting in the injury of one Somali government soldier.
• On April 6, 2024, Muhudin Ali Arif, a prominent elder, was shot to death by suspected Al-Shabaab assassins in the Siisi neighborhood of Mogadishu’s Kaaraan district. He is the father of the director of the tax officer at Mogadishu International Airport.
• On April 6, 2024, Al-Shabab militants launched an attack on Bal’ad, 30 km north of Mogadishu. According to residents, the militants managed to seize control of most of the town, destroyed the police headquarters, and claimed to have killed numerous government soldiers. The militants have reportedly retreated.
• On April 6, 2024, The Al-Qaeda-associated militants launched coordinated attacks on the military bases of the Ugandan contingent in the districts of Qoryooley and Janaale, as well as the towns of Bariire, No/60, Danoow, Golweeyn, Buur-colow, and the airport in Barawe district.
• On April 5, 2024, Two Turkish citizens and three Somali soldiers, who were escorting the Turkish citizens reportedly engaged in humanitarian relief work, were killed in an Al-Shabaabs’ IED blast that targeted their vehicle in the Garabaaley district of Mogadishu.
• On April 5, 2024, In the Bakool region, Al-Shabaab militants carried out a planned attack on the Riddada military base in Hudur district, with no detailed information available on the casualties resulting from the attack.
• On April 4, 2024, Suspected Al-Shabaab operation behind Bakaara Market Fires reported in Mogadishu, Somalia.
• On April 4, 2024, The Mujahideen forces claimed to have engaged in intense fighting against the military and forces of the SNA in the Sabiid region of Lower Shabelle.
• On April 3, 2024, Al-Shabaab militants shot and killed six Kenyan traders during a raid in the border town of Dhobley, Lower Juba, Somalia.
• On April 2, 2024, In Bakool, the Mujahideen forces claimed responsibility for intense battles against a military base housing SNA force in the Ceelbarde district of the region.
• On April 2, 2024, A significant bombing operation carried out by the Al-Shabaab mujahideen troops targeted the Ceelasha-biyaha area on the outskirts of Mogadishu, resulting in casualties among the SNA forces. The explosion caused serious injuries to one SNA soldier.
• On April 2, 2024, In Lower Shabelle, the insurgent forces of Al-Shabaab conducted a fierce battle, detonating a powerful explosion in the Number-60 area, resulting in casualties among the SNA forces, including the deaths of two Somali government soldiers.
• On April 2, 2024, Al-Shabaab mujahideen troops claimed to have engaged in intense fighting at the ATMIS military base and the SNA forces’ base located in the Qoryooley district in Lower Shabelle region, resulting in undisclosed casualties.
• On April 1, 2024, Today, in Mogadishu’s Kaxda district, a military police vehicle was targeted by an IED blast, resulting in damage to the vehicle.
• On April 1, 2024, In the Siinaay neighborhoods of Mogadishu’s Warta Nabadda district, two government soldiers were killed. The Al-Shabaab assailants reportedly escaped from the scene.
• On April 1, 2024, according to security sources from Baidoa, an Al-Shabaab explosion targeted a security checkpoint in the Tawfiiq neighborhood tonight. Gunfire was reported in the area following the blast, resulting in one fatality.
• On April 1, 2024, Al-Shabaab insurgents in the Lower Jubba region used a suicide vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (SVBIED) against the Riddada forces, which resulted in the injury of two SNA soldiers.
• On April 1, 2024, Al-Shabaab claimed a car bomb attack against the SNA forces, who were stationed at the Boosh Hotel near the Zoobe junction in the capital city of Mogadishu.

Analysis & Observations

Notable of targeted attacks in Mandera NER and also in Lamu. Al-Shabaab insurgents continue to target non-locals in Mandera County, Kenya, as evidenced by recent events. Initial reports indicated heavy gunfire between police officers and suspected Al-Shabaab terrorists. While security teams are yet to confirm the incident, the execution of the attack suggests the involvement of Al-Shabaab militants.

Preliminary reports of the latest attack in ElWak, Mandera suggest that the improvised explosive device (IED) targeted houses belonging to teachers and healthcare workers in the region. It is noteworthy that the majority of tutors, healthcare workers, and casual laborers in the area are non-locals.

This recent targeted attack marks the first time in several months that militants have targeted the region following a major security boost. The attack coincides with the arrest of Abu Mahir, a senior Al-Shabaab operative, in Lamu County along the coastal strip of Kenya.

The month of April has seen a significant escalation in terror activities in Somalia, particularly in areas surrounding Mogadishu.  The insurgent militants, armed and even utilizing reconnaissance drones, have been actively spotted near Balad, indicating a shift in focus towards towns and villages around the capital. This demonstrates their presence and capabilities, posing a serious threat to the region’s security.

A recent video released by Al-Shabaab showcasing fighting in Busley and other areas reveals a concerning development. The display of their members parading and maneuvering indicates a strengthening of their capabilities, contrary to expectations of decline. This suggests a potential intensification of attacks and a need for heightened vigilance in counterterrorism efforts.

The U.S. issuing alerts regarding possible threats to multiple sites in Mogadishu, including shopping malls, crowded areas, and government facilities, has further escalated the situation. This has led to a significant number of Somali diasporas leaving the country due to perceived risks, and international airlines suspending flights to and from Mogadishu. The warnings underscore the high-level threats posed by the insurgent groups in the region.

The surge in attacks near the capital Mogadishu, coupled with propaganda efforts by insurgent groups’ media wing, indicates a strategic focus on destabilizing key areas. The release of a propaganda film by Al-Kataa’ib news channel highlights the struggle of the Mujahideen and the steadfastness of the jihad movement in East Africa, aiming to garner support and portray a narrative of advancement which overly exaggerates their operation outcomes.

Forcible attendance of prayers by locals led by insurgent brigades in various districts further underscores their efforts to impose their ideology and control over territories. Such actions demonstrate a brazen disregard for local autonomy and indicate a desire to establish a strict Islamist rule in these areas.

Also notable, During the month under review; while Somalia experienced its worst floods, Al-Shabaab militants employed a strategic tactic by digging trenches to control the floods and distributing food supplies in various regions, including Lower and Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, and Hiran. This tactic was aimed at catching the attention of locals and painting the Somali government as unable to provide assistance, thus seeking to win recruits to their fold. This approach demonstrates the group’s ability to exploit natural disasters for their propaganda and recruitment efforts, highlighting the complex challenges faced in countering their influence in the region.

In conclusion, the recorded terror events in Somalia paint a grim picture of escalating terror activities and a growing threat posed by insurgent groups. The focus on towns near the capital, coupled with propaganda efforts and coercive tactics, highlights the need for a coordinated and robust response to counterterrorism. Future forecasts suggest a continuation of attacks, requiring enhanced security measures and international cooperation to mitigate the threat and restore stability in the region. As such counterterrorism assets in Kenya (especially the ones manning border prefectures with Somalia) to maintain highest levels of vigilance, cultivate collaboration with locals to achieve much needed HUMINT to enable them stem down and thwart future attacks.