Bi-Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of March 1st – March 15th, 2024: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary:

The recent surge in Al-Shabaab activity, particularly by the Mujahideen in Somalia, has shown a concerning trend of increased attacks across various regions. From March 1 to March 14, 2024, a total of 26 attacks have been recorded, targeting government troops, African Union soldiers, and civilians. These attacks have been concentrated in Mogadishu, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba, Mudug, and other regions known for Al-Shabaab activities.

Of particular concern is the repeat attacks in certain areas, such as Mogadishu’s Yaqshid district and the Mudug region, indicating a pattern of strategic targeting by the Al-Shabaab. This trend is expected to continue in the coming weeks and months as Al-Shabaab insurgents seek to maintain pressure on government forces and expand their control in key regions.

During the month of Ramadan, there is a heightened risk of increased attacks, including suicide bombings and IED strikes. This period is often seen as an opportunity by the Al-Qaeda branch Al-Shabaab to carry out large-scale attacks, as they believe martyrdom during this holy month holds greater significance. Security forces should be on high alert and enhance their intelligence gathering and surveillance efforts during this period.

To counter Al-Shabaab’s increasing activity, a multifaceted approach is recommended. Firstly, there needs to be an improvement in intelligence gathering and sharing among security agencies to preempt and disrupt Al-Shabaab plans. Enhanced border security and cooperation with neighboring countries to prevent the movement of Al-Shabaab militants and weapons should also be prioritized.

Secondly, community engagement and empowerment programs should be intensified to win the trust and cooperation of local populations. This includes providing economic opportunities, education, and countering extremist narratives through religious leaders and community influencers.

Thirdly, there should be a focus on enhancing the capacity and capability of security forces through training, equipment provision, and coordination among different branches of the military and police. This will enable a more effective response to Al-Shabaab threats and reduce vulnerabilities in high-risk areas.

The recent increase in Al-Shabaab activity in especially for Somalia poses a significant threat to stability and security in the region. It is imperative for security forces to adopt a proactive and comprehensive approach to counter these threats, focusing on intelligence-led operations, community engagement, and capacity building to mitigate the risk of further attacks.

Bi-Weekly CT: March 1^st – March 15^th

1. March 14, 2024: Complex massive attack within Hotel SYL, adjacent to the Somali Presidential palace in Mogadishu claimed by the Al-Shabaab group. Massive casualties reported from the martyrdom (suicide bombing) operation.
2. March 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces attacked a position of Rida government troops in the Al-Najim neighborhood of the Dharkenley district in Mogadishu. They claimed the death of one government soldier and injuries to two others.
3. March 14, 2024: Xinlabi town in the southern Mudug region was reportedly captured by Al-Shabaab after a brief clash. Witnesses observed heavily armed militants in the area. This marks the fourth town to fall to Al-Shabaab’s recent rapid advancement.
4. March 14, 2024: In Baidoa city, a recent roadside explosion carried out by Al-Shabaab Mujahideen burned a car belonging to the South West Police. Unspecified casualties were reported.
5. March 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an IED strike on a Ugandan military vehicle in Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
6. March 13, 2024: A suspected Al-Shabaab explosion was reported near Hotel Ramadan in Mogadishu’s Yaqshid district. Details on casualties were not available.
7. March 13, 2024: An explosion carried out by the Al-Shabaab Mujahideen fighters in the area of Number 60 in Lower Shabelle burned a truck belonging to the African Troops, which was carrying containers. There were casualties among the soldiers traveling with the vehicle.
8. March 13, 2024: A roadside explosion carried out by Al-Shabaab in the area of Hawadley in the Middle Shabelle targeted SNA troops on patrol routine, injuring three soldiers.
9. March 12, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants recaptured Laasgacamey and Sirgo in the Mudug region, prompting the retreat of government troops. The reason for the sudden withdrawal of Somali federal forces remains unclear.
10. March 10, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an ambush assault against SNA troops on the outskirts of Kismayo, Lower Juba, injuring more than 10 officers.
11. March 10, 2024: In Mogadishu, there have been reports of multiple mortar shells hitting the Yaqshid district, with some shells landing near the presidential palace. Civilian casualties have been reported as a result of the attack.
12. March 10, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants have reportedly seized control of Bacaadweyn town in the Mudug region after government forces withdrew. Residents have reported the presence of Al-Shabaab fighters in the town.
13. March 10, 2024: Mortar shells landed on spy agency -NISA and police headquarters in Somalia’s capital. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the attack.
14. March 9, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants captured Camaara town, a strategically significant area in the Mudug region of Galmudug regional state, after government forces withdrew. Witnesses observed heavily armed Al-Shabaab fighters patrolling key areas of the town.
15. March 8, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces claimed to have fought a heavy battle in the camp of the Ethiopian army in the Halgan area of Hiran province. No details on casualties were provided.
16. March 7, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided the camp belonging to African Union soldiers, ATMIS, in Elaboor, Barawe district of Lower Shabelle.
17. March 6, 2024: Heavy fighting erupted in villages near Kismayo, including Muse Haji, Malayley, Tardo & Baxarsab villages, over the past three days. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the deaths of several Jubbaland soldiers.
18. March 6, 2024: An IED explosion occurred in Mogadishu’s Heliwaa district, targeting a military vehicle passing through the area. An eyewitness reported that three civilians and one government soldier were injured in the attack.
19. March 5, 2024: A prominent individual was reportedly assassinated by suspected Al-Shabaab gunmen in the Karaan district of Mogadishu. Residents report that the assailants managed to escape.
20. March 4, 2024: In Bay, Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces fought a heavy battle targeting the camp of ATMIS-Ethiopian troops in Bardale district.
21. March 4, 2024: In the Bay region, Al-Shabaab claimed credit for an attack on government troops in the camp of Maaya Fula in Baidoa.
22. March 3, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces fought in the camp of Ethiopian troops operating under the mandate of ATMIS in Hudur in Bakool province.
23. March 3, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces fought a heavy battle targeting an administration center in the Garasbaaley area of Banadir, where soldiers and officers of the Somali firing squad were present.
24. March 1, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces claimed to have fought a heavy battle in the camp of African Troops (ATMIS) in the Danow area under Qoryooley district of Lower Shabelle.
25. March 1, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen claimed to have attacked the camp of the SNA in the town of Baidoa, Bay region, injuring a two-star officer named Zakariye.
26. March 1, 2024: Al-Shabaab militants claimed responsibility for an attack on the camp of African troops, ATMIS, in Burcolow area under Barawe district, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.

NOTABLES (Successful CT Ops and Challenges)

Successful counterterrorism operations in Somalia have recently showcased the effectiveness of security forces in combating Al-Shabaab threats. The Somali Police successfully seized 140 mortars from terrorists in Mogadishu, disrupting potential attacks. Additionally, a joint operation by the Somali National Army and US allies in Lower Shabelle resulted in the elimination of three Al-Shabaab, highlighting the value of collaboration in enhancing security.

Ongoing operations across Lower Juba have neutralized over 50 terrorists and led to 20 detentions, indicating a significant blow to Al-Shabaab networks in the region. Furthermore, a joint operation with Jubaland Regional Forces saw the elimination of multiple terrorists and the capture of seven militants, demonstrating the success of coordinated military actions in disrupting Al-Shabaab activities.

In Galgaduud region, the National Armed Forces, with international support, conducted a pre-planned operation that wiped out dozens of terrorists, including top leaders, showcasing the effectiveness of intelligence-led operations. The swearing-in of 300 newly trained officers into the Somali Police Force and the graduation of a Somali National Army Gorgor Brigade signify significant progress in strengthening the nation’s security forces. Additionally, the participation of the National Army DANAB in the “Justified Accord” exercise in Kenya demonstrates Somalia’s commitment to enhancing its military capabilities through international cooperation, improving readiness for future operations.

However, these successes are juxtaposed with significant challenges faced by the Somali government in its battle against Al-Shabaab. The loss of numerous towns, including Laasgacamey, Sirgo, Caad, Camaara, and Bacadweyn, to Al-Shabaab in a short span of time indicates a concerning trend of Al-Shabaab advances.

The latest suicide bombing (Inghimasi) of the busy SYL hotel in the capital Mogadishu pose critical questions on how the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab breached the security in the green zone citing, both Villa Somalia of PM and Presidential palace are about 600metres from the hotel. The hotel is frequented by influential civilians including lawmakers and government officials. The government’s failure to publicly acknowledge these losses raises questions about transparency and its ability to effectively counter the insurgency. The rapid recapture of strategic towns by Al-Shabaab after the withdrawal of government forces highlights the challenges in maintaining control of territory and the need for improved defensive strategies.

Conclusion

The recent surge in terrorism activities by Al-Shabaab in Somalia is alarming, particularly with the group’s successful recapture of strategically significant areas from the Somali National Army (SNA) within the past seven days. This resurgence of violence and territorial gains by Al-Shabaab indicates a worrying trend of increased militant activities in the region. With the onset of Ramadan, a period historically associated with heightened terrorist activities, the situation is expected to escalate further. The group’s ability to reclaim territory and carry out attacks highlights the challenges faced by the Somali government in maintaining security and stability. Immediate and effective counterterrorism measures are crucial to address this unusual surge in terrorism and protect civilians from further harm.

Looking ahead, the Somali government must address these challenges by enhancing intelligence gathering, strengthening cooperation with international allies, and improving coordination among security forces. Additionally, efforts to win the trust and cooperation of local populations through community engagement programs are crucial in countering Al-Shabaab narratives and disrupting their support networks. Despite these challenges, the recent successes in counterterrorism operations demonstrate the resilience and determination of Somali security forces in combating Al-Shabaab threats and maintaining stability in the region.