Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Review for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of February 1st – February 29th, 2024: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa

Executive Summary

In past two months of 2024 (January & February), the resurgence of terrorist activities orchestrated by the Al-Qaeda branch, Al-Shabaab militant group in Somalia and certain regions of Kenya has posed a grave threat to regional security. These attacks have been concentrated in key areas, highlighting the vulnerability of these regions to extremist violence. Hugely concentrated attacks regions are Mogadishu, Juba, Gedo, Hiran, Mudug, Bay, Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle in Somalia, as well as Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa counties in Kenya, which have witnessed a series of assaults, ambushes, and bombings (Roadside/IEDs) by Al-Shabaab militants. Each the two have seen slightly over 50 attacks being recorded.

In Kenya, to effectively combat this menace, there is an urgent need to bolster counterterrorism efforts, focusing on intelligence gathering, border security, and rapid response capabilities. Mandera County in Kenya has been especially targeted, with frequent assaults targeting on security assets, on telecommunication infrastructures and ambushes becoming the norm. Enhancing security in this region requires the utilization of surveillance drones, fostering closer collaboration among security forces, and engaging local communities in intelligence-sharing programs to effectively counter the terrorist threat.

Similarly, in Somalia, the persistent attacks on military bases, coordinated bombings, and ambushes in the aforementioned localities and regions underscore the enduring threat posed by Al-Shabaab. Disrupting the group’s supply lines, intensifying intelligence operations, and enhancing the capabilities of local security forces are critical steps in countering this terrorist threat. Strengthening community engagement initiatives to build trust and encourage information-sharing is also paramount for identifying and neutralizing potential threats posed by extremist groups.

The situation demands a multifaceted counterterrorism approach that combines military strategy with community involvement and intelligence-driven operations. Efforts should focus on dismantling the networks that support these insurgent activities, cutting off their financial resources, and disrupting their ability to plan and execute attacks. It is imperative to maintain constant vigilance and adaptability in responding to evolving threats, while also addressing the root causes of extremism through socio-economic development and ideological counter-narratives.

Besides, international cooperation and coordination are crucial in this endeavor, as terrorism knows no borders. Regional partners especially those under ATMIS mandate must work together to share intelligence, coordinate security operations, and support each other in combating this common threat. By taking decisive and coordinated action, the menace of Al-Shabaab can be effectively countered, ensuring a more secure and stable future for the region.

Latest Terrorist Events (February 1^st – February 29^th)

1. February 29, 2024: Al-Shabaab attacked the camp of the SNA in the town of Baidoa, resulting in an explosion that injured a two-star officer named Zakariye, who was one of the soldiers in the camp.
2. February 29, 2024: Al-Shabaab engaged in heavy combat at the camp of ATMIS in the Danow area under Qoryooley district, Lower Shabelle.
3. February 29, 2024: Terrorists fired salvos of mortars and RPGs at KDF ATMIS FOB at Burahache area along the border with Somalia. They also fired multiple bursts of blind PKM fire.
4. February 28, 2024: Al-Shabaab fought a heavy battle last night at the camp of the ATMIS-Kenyan troops in Hoosingow, Juba region of South Somalia.
5. February 28, 2024: Militants led an armed assault on Somali forces, resulting in the suspected killing of at least two soldiers in Gomoro, Hudur, Bakool, Somalia.
6. February 28, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched an artillery attack this morning on the camp of the Kenyan troops in El-Waq district in Gedo province. No details on casualties were reported.
7. February 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab fought a heavy battle last night at the camp of the ATMIS-Ethiopian troops in Dinsoor district of Bay province.
8. February 27, 2024: Al-Shabaab attacked the camp of the ATMIS in Goofgaduud Bureey area on the outskirts of Baidoa with artillery fire.
9. February 26, 2024: Al-Shabaab fought in the Makuda SNA camp in Baydhaba city.
10. February 26, 2024: An explosion carried out by Al-Shabaab in the Mahaday district of Middle Shabelle targeted a SNA station in the district, injuring one SNA soldier.
11. February 26, 2024: In an operation in Afgoye district of Lower Shabelle, two officers were killed who were part of the intelligence unit of the Somali NISA, named as Mohamed Ismail and Ali Amadei.
12. February 25, 2024: Al-Shabaab attacked a checkpoint of the Somali government troops in an area called Shareey between Wanlaweyn district and Warmaxan area in Lower Shabelle, resulting in the death of 1 SNA soldier and weapon looting.
13. February 25, 2024: Al-Shabaab targeted SNA troops in the Tarabuun neighborhood of Hodan district in Mogadishu.
14. February 25, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for an explosion that took place tonight in the outskirts of Mogadishu, especially in the area of Ceelasha-Biyaha, for a convoy of Somali government troops. Three soldiers were killed and four others injured.
15. February 24, 2024: Three Somali government soldiers were killed in an explosion and a direct attack claimed by Al-Shabaab in the general vicinity of Shareey on the outskirts of Walannalweyn district, Lower Shabelle.
16. February 24, 2024: Heavily armed forces of Al-Shabaab launched a heavy attack on an SNA-operated base in the Amara area of Galmudug region, resulting in at least 2 soldiers dead and 18 others injured.
17. February 24, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed to have carried out another explosive operation in the Gubadlee neighborhood of Karaan district of Mogadishu targeting joint patrol teams.
18. February 24, 2024: Al-Shabaab attacked two ATMIS military bases, especially those of Uganda, in Buula Mareer district and Golweyn areas in Lower Shabelle, South Somalia. One soldier was killed and another soldier was injured in one of the attacks.
19. February 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab detonated an IED and conducted an armed assault, killing eight soldiers in Ceel Dheer District, Galguduud, Somalia.
20. February 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed an army patrol, killing troops and seizing weapons in Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia.
21. February 23, 2024: Al-Shabaab fought a heavy battle at the Maya Fula SNA camp in Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia. Injuries on a number of soldiers were reported.
22. February 22, 2024: Al-Shabaab claimed to have fought a heavy battle at the camp of the African Union forces (ATMIS) and the SNA base in Janale district of Lower Shabelle region, South Somalia.
23. February 22, 2024: Suspected Al-Shabaab killed a motorcycle driver in a neighborhood of Shibis district in Mogadishu.
24. February 21, 2024: An explosion operation carried out by Al-Shabaab targeted a checkpoint belonging to the Rida troops located in the Bardale district of Bay.
25. February 21, 2024: In an operation carried out by Al-Shabaab in Gubta neighborhood of Dayniile district in Mogadishu, two soldiers belonging to the SNA (Military Police) were killed, and two AK-47 rifles were looted from them.
26. February 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab neutralized Juba Intelligence Positions, killing at least two soldiers in Soya Area, Afmadow District, Lower Juba Region, Somalia.
27. February 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab repelled a counter-terrorism operation, killing eight soldiers and injuring ten others in Iladir, Galguduud Region, Somalia.
28. February 20, 2024: Al-Shabaab reportedly tried to attack the base of the ATMIS in the bridge of Zabiid area of Lower Shabelle, South Somalia. No casualties from the attempted probe were reported.

    

29. February 19, 2024: Al-Shabaab destroyed a Safaricom critical infrastructure and attempted to breach security for outpost in Sala Area, Mandera County, Kenya.
30. February 18, 2024: Al-Shabaab attempted to assassinate Osman Dafli, Member of the Somali Parliament, with an IED in Mogadishu, Somalia.
31. February 18, 2024: Al-Shabaab launched a large-scale assault on Somali Elite Forces, conquering a Base and Killing 15 in Shabeellow, Mudug Region, Somalia.
32. On February 17, 2024: Al-Shabaab roadside IED targeted NISA officers onboard a vehicle in the general vicinity of Hilwaa district of Mogadishu. 2 officers injured the explosion and the vehicle destroyed.
33. On February 16: Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush raid on ATMIS troops in the general outskirts of Golweyn area under Bulomareer district. 3 soldiers killed and 2 others injured as per local OSINT sources.
34. On February 15: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen hurled grenades and bombed a house in the Taleex neighborhood of Hodan district of Mogadishu targeting a senior Somali military official.
35. February 15, 2024: Al-Shabaab shelled the Somali Ministry of Defense with mortars in Mogadishu, Somalia.
36. February 15, 2024: In Hiran region, an explosion carried out by the Mujahideen in Jalalaqsi district last night was controlled by the Somali troops who were in the district, resulting in the death of one government soldier named Shafi.
37. February 14, 2024: In Mudug region, an explosion carried out by the Mujahideen inside the city of Amara burned a car belonging to an SNA official, killing two government soldiers and injuring three others.
38. February 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab shelled a Somali Army Base and neighboring houses in Ceel Dheer District, Galguduud Region, Galmudug State, Somalia.
39. February 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab conducted a large-scale assault against Somali troops in Afgooye, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
40. February 14, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed a Kenyan police vehicle, killing five in Mandera County, Kenya.
41. February 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab Mujahideen forces claimed credit for bombing an ATMIS convoy carrying supplies to soldiers in Golweyn area under Buulo Mareer district, injuring six soldiers between Danow and Golweyn areas of Lower Shabelle.
42. February 13, 2024: In Bakool region, Mujahideen forces attacked a checkpoint of Somali government troops on the outskirts of Hudur district.
43. February 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab assaulted and captured an army camp and a village in Karo Area, Mandera County, Kenya, destroying two telecommunications masts.
44. February 13, 2024: Al-Shabaab destroyed a military truck transporting weapons with an IED in Bosaso, Bari Region, Puntland, Somalia.
45. February 12, 2024: In Lower Shabelle, Mujahideen forces targeted an ATMIS convoy carrying supplies between Shalambod and Danow, injuring three soldiers.
46. February 11, 2024: Suspected terrorists destroyed two telecommunications masts at Karo area in Mandera County, Kenya, targeting critical infrastructure in North Eastern Kenya.
47. February 10, 2024: A shooting incident at the General Gordan military base in Mogadishu killed several people. Unconfirmed reports suggest a Somali soldier fired on Emirati military trainers; Al-Shabaab claimed their militants were involved.
48. February 7, 2024: Al-Shabaab carried out multiple VBIED and IED attacks, killing 22 and injuring 39 at Bakaara Market, Mogadishu, Somalia.
49. February 6, 2024: Al-Shabaab ambushed a military checkpoint, killing three soldiers and seizing weapons in Baidoa City, Bay Region, Somalia.
50. February 6, 2024: Al-Shabaab conducted two armed assaults against Somali soldiers, killing three in Janaale and Bofow, Lower Shabelle, Somalia.
51. February 5, 2024: Al-Shabaab conducted an armed assault against Ethiopian Oromo refugees, killing seven in Beled-Hawo, Gedo Region, Somalia.

Brief Analysis & Observations

Insurgents have continued their propaganda efforts, aiming to exaggerate their activities for recruitment purposes. Recently, they released a statement condemning the Somali-Turkish Security Agreement and also blamed US weaponized drones for the killing of two Cuban prisoners in Jilib, Middle Juba Region, Somalia. The Islamist militants also issued skewed statements downplaying the US announcement regarding the construction of five new military bases to fight in Somalia.

Recent terror events indicate a forecast for heightened terrorist activities in both Kenya and Somalia in the coming weeks and months. These activities primarily target military and government installations, as well as civilian populations, using tactics such as bombings, ambushes, and armed assaults.

The most attacked regions are likely to remain Mandera County in Kenya and Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions in Somalia. These areas have experienced repeated attacks, indicating their strategic importance to groups like Al-Shabaab. The attacks in Mandera County have included assaults on military bases, ambushes, and the destruction of critical infrastructure like telecommunications masts.

Al-Shabaab’s weapon of choice appears to be improvised explosive devices (IEDs), which have been used in several attacks to target military vehicles, checkpoints, and civilian areas. The group has also utilized mortars and firearms in their assaults, as seen in the shelling of the Somali Ministry of Defense and the ambushes on security forces.

Notable CT Ops

Somali intelligence has taken notable counterterrorism measures by shutting down 14 Al-Shabaab websites, including the propaganda radio station ‘Al-Andalus,’ which was used to disseminate extremist messages and recruit followers. Additionally, the arrest of Muhiyadin Daqare, a senior Al-Shabaab leader, in Mogadishu, Somalia, demonstrates a significant blow to the terrorist organization’s leadership and operational capabilities.

Furthermore, security forces intercepted two Al-Shabaab reconnaissance drones in the Ceel Dheer District of the Galguduud Region, indicating heightened vigilance and effectiveness in detecting and thwarting potential terrorist activities. These measures underscore Somalia’s commitment to combating terrorism and enhancing security within its borders.

In addition to these actions, a recent airstrike in Jamame township within Lower Jubba reportedly killed at least 20 Al-Shabaab fighters who were conducting terror activities in southern Somalia. This airstrike followed an attack by the group on foreign soldiers in a training camp in Mogadishu, indicating a swift and robust response by Somali security forces to eliminate terrorist threats in the region.

A significant development occurred in Lamu County, Kenya, where a terrorists’ cell was destroyed by the SOG Unit. The operation resulted in the death of a significant number of terrorists, significantly degrading the cell’s capacity. The insurgents were in the last stages of orchestrating a reinforced ambush targeting security forces in the area of responsibility (AOR).

Conclusion

In February, insurgent activities in Kenya and Somalia, particularly by the Al-Shabaab group, demonstrated a persistent threat to regional security. The insurgents’ focus on attacking military, government, and civilian targets through various tactics, including bombings, ambushes, and armed assaults, underscored their intent to destabilize the regions. Notable attacks in Mandera County, Kenya, and Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle regions in Somalia, highlighted the strategic significance of these areas to the insurgents, who sought to exploit their vulnerabilities.

The insurgents’ weapon of choice, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), was frequently used to target military vehicles, checkpoints, and civilian areas, showcasing their capacity for indiscriminate violence. Additionally, mortar attacks and firearms were employed in assaults, such as the shelling of the Somali Ministry of Defense. Despite these threats, security forces demonstrated effectiveness in intercepting reconnaissance drones and conducting successful counterterrorism operations, including the destruction of a significant terrorists’ cell in Lamu County, Kenya, and the shutdown of insurgent websites by Somali intelligence.

Looking ahead, the coming months are crucial for security forces in Kenya and Somalia to enhance intelligence gathering, border security, and rapid response capabilities to effectively counter the insurgent threat. Collaboration between security forces, local communities, and regional partners will be essential in disrupting terrorist networks and preventing further attacks. Addressing the root causes of extremism and promoting community resilience are also paramount to reducing the appeal of joining militant groups.