Monthly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East Africa (Kenya & Somalia) Shabaab Al-Mujahideen in Period of September 1st – September 30th, 2021: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa Region

Executive Summary

The Harakat Shabaab Al Mujahideen (HSM), popularly known as Al-Shabaab is an Al-Qaeda affiliate threatening the security and stability of East Africa. The jihadist group continue to capitalize on political instability in Somalia, the group’s home-base waging persistent attacks on security forces, government officials and civilians. The militant group also continue to sporadically target Kenyan security forces especially in northeastern and coastal counties bordering Somalia as retaliatory for the county’s troops being part of African Mission in Somalia (AMISOM).

The attacks continue to surge. In the month of September, at least 64 terrorist operations were recorded, a notable increase recorded as compared to the month of August whereby the Islamists militant group claimed at least 50 attacks. Al-Shabaab scaled up attacks in central and southern Somalia. Terrorist related kinetic activity slightly increased in the four weeks under review.

No major terror incidents were reported on Kenyan soil. However, Kenya’s counterterrorism operators should intensify on countermeasures such as increased ground and aerial surveillance along the border with Somalia, scouting around defense posts/military operating bases located proximal to Somalia border. Al-Shabaab might be hatching plans to wage attacks targeting military, police defense posts and also patrol units in frontier counties (Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Lamu) citing the militant’s previous attacks trends.

While an uphill task, ending the group’s ability to successfully carry out attacks would deal a blow to Al-Shabaab’s capabilities.  However, counterterrorism operators need to always rethink strategies, changing on their daily routines and combat strategies as often as possible. Counterterrorism forces in Kenya and Somalia will need to make hard targets harder to strike by re-inventing on strategies that will mostly involve locals, human intelligence (HUMINT) driven.

Notable is increased use of IEDs, landmines, roadside bombs and suicide vehicle borne (SVBIEDs) operations, taking more than half of total operation in the month under review. Ambush attacks and assassinations are also steadily increasing from across the regions of the Horn of Africa nation as recorded below.

AS Claimed Attacks (September 1^st – September 30^th)

Week 1:

• On September 1^st, Al-Shabaab to have attacked Federal government soldier in general vicinity of Mogadishu. At least 4 soldiers were killed in Mogadishu and its outskirts and their two AK47 rifles seized by the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab operatives.
• On September 1^st, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Federal government troops in Janale and Marere areas of Lower Shabelle. The attacks reportedly resulted to a number of casualties.
• On September 1^st, Al-Shabaab assassins shot dead one SNA soldier in Darusalaam, on the outskirts of the capital Mogadishu. The assassins seized his AK47 rifle.
• On September 1^st, Al-Shabaab a low-scale attack on AMISOM troops in Kuday Island, Lower Juba region, southern Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 2^nd, Al-Shabaab attacks target Somali civilians in Elasha Biyaha, Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 3^rd, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for assassinating a NISA officer in general vicinity of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia.
• On September 3^rd, Al-Shabaab militants stormed a Jubaland administration base in Kudhaa, Lower Juba, claimed responsibility for killing several soldiers. The militants also looted weapons and other military equipment from the camp.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a grenade attack targeting senior politicians in Jowhar, Middle Shabelle. Initial reports indicate that the militants hurled grenades on a house belonging to members of the Hirshabele administration where at least three lawmakers had met. One lawmaker was seriously wounded in the attack.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab staged an ambush attack targeting an AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian (ENDF) troops in Hudur, Bakool region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 4^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have hurled several grenades targeting Somali government forces on patrol, in general area of Jowhar, the administrative capital of Middle Shabelle region of Somalia. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 5^th, Reports from southern Somalia indicate an attack was carried out on foreign AMISOM troops. At least one Ugandan soldier was killed and others were injured in a car bomb blast at area 60 in Lower Shabelle region.
• On September 5^th, Al-Shabaab claimed another low-scale attack that targeted an AMISOM military base in Danow area of Lower Shabelle. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab fire several mortar shells on a military base operated by Puntland forces in Af Urur area on the outskirts of Bossaso, Bari region. Casualties from the attack reported.
• On September 6^th, Reports from Bay region in southern Somalia indicate that an armed attack was carried out on troops from the Laftagareen administration. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Somali government troops and destroying at least one truck in general area of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle. The troops were from Barire when they were ambushed on their way to their bases in Afgoye.
• On September 6^th, Al-Shabaab target Abdirahman Haji, the deputy intelligence chief of Wanlaweyn district of Lower Shabelle region, Somalia. The intelligence chief narrowly escaped the roadside blast with some injuries.
• On September 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided AMISOM military base operated by Burundian troops with mortar shells in El Baraf, Middle region of Somalia. Casualties from the attack reported.
• On September 7^th, Al-Shabaab assassin opened fire killing a Somali government soldier in general area of Elsaqir on the outskirts of Daynile district, southeastern Banaadir region of Somalia.
• On September 7^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked Hirshabelle administration soldiers around the main bridge in Beledweyne, Hiran region of Somalia. Five soldiers were reportedly wounded in the ambush gun fire.

Week 2:

• On September 9^th, Al-Shabaab targeted a checkpointed manned by Somali government officers in on the outskirts of Bardale district, Bay region of Somalia. No details on casualties were reported.
• On September 10^th, Somalia government soldier and officials killed in Gedo region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab launched an attack on SNA operated base in Bardhere vicinity of Gedo, at least one soldier was killed in the attack and three others were injured.
• On September 10^th, a brief raid claimed by Al-Shabaab was successfully thwarted by AMISOM forces operating on Kuday island military base. Residents reported that they heard artillery shelling and gunfire from both sides but no casualties were reported.
• On September 10^th, Al-Shabaab militants claimed to have attacked SNA troops on patrol in the general vicinity of Siin Dheer area, Lower Shabelle, west of the capital Mogadishu. Heavy gunfire was heard from both sides as per local sources.
• On September 11^th, Soldiers and officials from the self-proclaimed ‘Jubbaland’ administration were killed and others wounded in an IED explosion in an area of ​​Lower Jubba. According to local sources, the blast that happened between Abdalla Birole and Kismayo left at least six soldiers and wounded four others, including a former commander named Hussein Dahir Agaweyne.
• On September 11^th, Al-Shabaab fighters targeted AMISOM troops in Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Initial reports gathered from corresponding open sources indicated that, Al-Shabaab jihadists attacked a convoy of Ugandan troops as they were traveling between Number 60 and Buufow in Lower Shabelle. The troops were on their way to their base in Shalaambood area on the outskirts of Marka when they were ambushed. The militants claimed responsibility saying they managed to seize supplies besides injuring some soldiers.
• On September 11^th, suspected Al-Shabaab assassins killed a senior government official identified as Abdi Risaq Ahmed Elmi alias Cardoofe in one of the neighborhoods of Las Anod, the capital of Sool region, Somalia. This is not the first time a Somaliland administration official has been killed in Las Anod as per local sources.
• On September 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have mounted an ambush raid on AMISOM makeshift military bases operated by Ethiopian troops in Hudur and Wajid districts. No casualties were reported from the two low-scale operations.
• On September 12^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an attack on Somali government troops’ base in general vicinity of Janale bridge, Lower Shabelle. A few casualties reported from the ambush operation.
• On September 13^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an operation against foreign troops in Kolbiyow military base, Lower Juba region of Somalia. No casualties were reported in the brief attempted raid.
• On September 14^th, A huge suicide bombing was reported between Halane camp and General Dhegabadan military academy in Mogadishu’s Wadajir district. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility, noted the operation targeted a gathering of Somalia army and killed 11 soldiers and wounded 16 others. Further police sources indicated that the suicide bomber targeted a tea shop at a municipal tax collection point.
• On September 14^th, Heavy clashes between Al-Shabaab fighters and ANA troops was reported near Abdalla Biroole village, about 55Km southwest of Kismayo town, the capital of Somalia’s Jubaland state. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 14^th, Al-Shabaab responsibility for killing a Somali police officer in a targeted attack in the vicinity of Afgoye, some few kilometers west of the Somalia capital Mogadishu.

Week 3:

• On September 15^th, at least ten mortar rounds targeted on African Union troops’ base in Burane area near Mahaday town of Middle Shabelle region of Somalia.  It is unclear the casualty that resulted from the mortar attack claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On September 15^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have assassinated a Somali government soldier in general vicinity of Baidoa, Bay region of Somalia. Open sources reports indicate that, Al-Shabaab assassins raided the soldier’s residence in Baidoa, killing him and wounded another officer.
• On September 15^th, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for killing a soldier from the ‘South West’ administration, in the general vicinity of Qansahdheere district of Bay region, Somalia.
• On September 16^th, Reports from the outskirts of Bossaso, Bari region indicate that Al-Shabaab militants roadside IEDs struck o Puntland forces and caused casualties. Initial reports indicate that an IED explosion on the road between Balli Khadar and Sugurre areas destroyed Abdi Bile’s car and killed at least one soldier and injured two others.
• On September 17^th, In Bakool region, heavy fighting was reported on AMISOM base operated by Ethiopian troops the vicinity of Hudur town. Corresponding open sources reports indicate that heavy artillery shelling and gunfire were heard in the vicinity near AMISOM operated military base. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 17^th, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have conducted a night raid AMISOM operated bases in Afmadow and Taabto areas of Lower Jubba region. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed a major raid on a heavily fortified area in the Hiran region of Somalia. The militants possibly were targeting an AMISOM military base, operated by Djiboutian troops, stationed inside Bulo Burde International Airport.
• On September 19^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have attacked government security officers near the military hospital in Howlwadag district of Mogadishu. No details on casualties were provided.
• On September 20^th, Reports from the town of Buurhakaba in Bay region of Somalia indicate that one person was injured in the blast claimed by The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab claimed IED blasts that destroyed a building of Bulo Burde airport that housed activities of arrivals and departures. Al-Shabaab. The militant group though its Islamic Radio Andulus said it targeted the district intelligence chief named Hussein Dhubow. Two other people were also injured in the IED blast.
• On September 20^th, Al-Shabaab targeted Somali security officers in general vicinity of Daynile district, Gubta neighborhood, north Mogadishu. At least three deaths resulted from the targeted IED/landmine blast.
• On September 20^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have shot dead a two-star police officer identified as Yusuf Barise in the general vicinity of Dharkenley district of Mogadishu.
• On September 21^st, Al-Shabaab assassins gunned down a government soldier in Huriwa district of Mogadishu named Mohamed Sheikh. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for the assassination.
• On September 21^st, Al-Shabaab militants killed a Somali police officer in Saybiyaano neighborhood of Hodan district, Mogadishu. The militants reported to have seized AK47 rifle from the slain officer.

Week 4:

• On September 22^nd, suspected Al-Shabaab assassins killed a delegate involved in selection process of lawmakers. The official identified as Liban Qadi Ali was shot dead in the vicinity of Baidoa town and the assailants immediately fled from the scene.
• On September 22^nd, Al-Shabaab claimed an ambush attack on the Omar Bere checkpoint on the outskirts of Afgoye, Lower Shabelle and killed two Somali government soldiers besides, the militants claimed to have seized weapons and ammunition.
• On September 22^nd, Al-Shabaab landmine blast that possibly was targeted at security forces struck on civilians inside Marka town, the capital of the Lower Shabelle region, causing at least one civilian death. Al-Shabaab through its propaganda media channels claimed responsibility for the attack.
• On September 22^nd, Al-Shabaab attempted raid on AMISOM’s Forward Operating Base (FOB) in general vicinity of Hosingow, Lower Juba successfully thwarted. There was fierce exchange of gunfire between the militants and gallant AMISOM troops operating in sector 2. Further reports indicate that the militants were subdued.
• On September 23^rd, an attack claimed by Al-Shabaab killed 10 Somali federal government forces on outskirts of Barawe, Lower Shabelle region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that the militants targeted a makeshift training camp operated by SNA on the outskirts of Barawe.
• On September 23^rd, Gunfire heard inside AMISOM military base operated by Ethiopian troops in Wajid town, in the southern Bakool region of Somalia. Details on casualties not provided.
• On September 23^rd, an explosion occurred in the Lower Shabelle region in southern Somalia on in the morning, causing casualties in parts of the region. The bomb blast struck a base in Ambareeso, a town in the southwestern port city of Barawe. Locals said the explosion took place at a camp owned by the Ma’awislay group fighting against Al-Shabaab. At least seven wounded in the explosion as per local sources.
• On September 24^th, Huge explosion heard in area between villa Baidoa military base and Medina Hospital in Somalia’s Capital Mogadishu. Senior police commanders including Turkish trained soldiers and Mogadishu Police chief, Farhan Qarole were the key target of the attack claimed by Al-Shabaab. Only the bomber was killed as per police sources.
• On September 24^th, Al-Shabaab IED blast target AMISOM troops in ElWak, Gedo prefecture of Somalia. Two Kenyan soldiers reported to have killed the blast claimed by Al-Shabaab.
• On September 25^th, at least seven people were killed and nine other others wounded in Al-Shabaab SVBIED attack that targeted a security checkpoint near Somalia’s presidential palace. An official from Al-Shabaab said the suicide attack targeted a vehicle carrying officials on their way to the presidential palace.
• On September 25^th, 7 AMISOM soldiers killed in attack on the outskirts of Mahaday Middle Shabelle. Initial reports indicate that a RCIED targeted AMISOM armored vehicles carrying Burundian troops. Corresponding open sources reports indicate that at least seven Burundian soldiers were killed when a remotely controlled IED hit an armored vehicle traveling in Burane area, about 3km from Mahaday.
• On September 26^th, Al-Shabaab to have killed/assassinated a federal government official in Weydow village on the outskirts of Mogadishu.
• On September 27^th, Al-Shabaab conducted a suicide bomb attack at a café shop in Kismayo town, Lower Juba region of Somalia. At least two civilians were killed and five others wounded in the explosion that happened inside the café.
• On September 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an attack on Jubaland Security Force (JSF) in the general vicinity of Kismayo, the capital of Lower Juba. Sources confirmed that the blast targeted a gathering of soldiers and officials from the Ahmed Madobe-led Jubaland administration. At least three soldiers were confirmed dead and several others wounded.
• On September 28^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have raided Somali government operated military bases in in Hudur and Balad districts of Somalia.
• On September 29^th, Al-Shabaab assassinated a senior government official in the neighborhoods of the capital Mogadishu. Corresponding reports indicate the officer identified as Mohamed Abdullahi Shiine was killed at a junction of Karaan and Huriwa districts.
• On September 29^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed a Kenyan military convoy that was travelling from Ras Kamboni, Lower Juba to Lamu County in Kenya. No confirmation details on casualties but Al-Shabaab propaganda media outlets exaggerated on the casualties.
• On September 29^th, two AMISOM bases in Golweyn and Shalaambood areas of Lower Shabelle region were attacked as per local sources.

Assessment/Observations & Insights

The Al-Qaeda associated militants in East Africa presents a growing threat not only in the horn of Africa but well beyond the region. Despite concerted counterterrorism operations against Al-Shabaab, the group has remained resilient and persistent in waging attacks.

The jihadist group continues to wage targeted attacks mostly on military targets, their operating bases and their convoys. Also, key government officials have been key targets of Al-Shabaab’s assassins especially in the capital Mogadishu.

Civilians have often been caught up in Al-Shabaab cruelty. Its should be noted that Al-Shabaab usually usus violence against civilians was primarily aimed at enforcing compliance with their rules, laws and requirements. Violence is frequently public in order to demonstrate what happens to those who transgress these rules.

By use of violence, civilians are intimidated and mostly they forcibly have to pay taxes or face death consequence. In some instances, those who owe taxes have been contacted and told to look out for the news the following day, when invariably a civilian is killed on a public square. Such stark incidents are intended to invoke compliance as opposed to merely punish civilians. In all these respects, al-Shabaab behaves like a conventional insurgent actor pursuing its own political, military and economic objectives, using violence to secure territorial and population control.

Notably, Al-Shabaab’s strengths lie in the ability to mobilize its fighters on short notice and also in smaller units to avoid movement detection and loss in the battlefield. Ambush raids in the month of September have notably been high. Citing the poor state of Somalia roads from across the country’s regions, the militants have been able to exploit this state to its advantage to conduct surprise attacks especially in military convoys. Besides, the militants have always exploited the country’s geography and thick vegetation to wages ambush raids on security forces.

Al-Shabaab’s attacks on civilian and government targets have often been dramatic, from suicide bombs or explosive-laden vehicles (SVBIEDs) to complex attacks entailing a combination of vehicle borne and person borne IEDs as well as active shooters. In the month under review, Al-Shabaab conducted a number of suicide missions which notably resulted to a number of both military and civilian deaths. The Islamist militants continue to use IED and SVBIED as preferred attack types targeting security military bases and police stations. Busy establishments such as restaurants and hotels frequented by security forces, especially in the capital Mogadishu are also key targets of Al-Shabaab suicide attacks.

Spike in Al-Shabaab operations largely skewed towards FOBs and defense outposts/police stations in central and southern Somalia regions. The operations have ranged from small to large scale attacks. September has recorded at least 64 attacks, the largest number of militant’s operations recorded so far this year.

Conclusion

Its primary goals of security and intelligence operators East Africa region to capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas.

Counter-terror and countering/preventing violent extremism approaches tend to focus on factors relevant to defeating ‘terrorist’/’violent extremist’ groups. However, continuing to engage in military combat without politically addressing the roots of the conflict will only sustain and normalise the use of violence in pursuit of political objectives and thus its paramount to comprehensively on factors that usually fuels these violent conflicts.

Looking beyond the threat posed by the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab, future interventions should be underpinned by conflict analysis that considers the economic, social, security, historical and political factors that fuel Somalis’ grievances, and identify the wider array of conflict drivers and dynamics that enable violent actors like Al-Shabaab to control territory and perpetrate violence to achieve political or financial gains.

Also, it remains undisputed that a clear majority of Somali citizenry appear to support military approach towards defeating Al-Shabaab menace that has waged its insurgency for close to two decades, nonetheless, the militarized approach has also failed to completely degrade the militant group. With this in mind it is time for counterterrorism operators to begin taking this perspective more seriously and maybe start exploring other ways of countering this menace whether by use of dialogue besides use of clan elders in trying to come up with radicalization solutions. By first solving the drivers of radicalization within the society, its among the key almost a sure strategy towards stemming down Al-Shabaab, which already is embedded deeply within Somali community.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to monitor and track the jihadist activities in East Africa and beyond. The groups capability on carrying out repeat attacks on military, convoys and government officials have sharpened. Thus S.I. reports that, the threat and intent on waging attacks against hard and also on soft targets by the Islamist Al-Shabaab remain unchanged.