Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 13th March – 28th March 2021

NOTABLES:

• The humanitarian crisis in Mozambique dire as over 700000 displaced by the insurgency
• Largest attack on Palma town near Total project in Afungi Peninsula
• Over 200 people were trapped for over 48 hours in a Palma hotel most of them expats working in the gas project.
• US Marines to train Mozambican troops
• Hostages in DRC continue to be killed
• Youth and residents of Beni demonstrate due to increased insecurity
• DRC military accused of delayed action against ISCAP in Beni and Ituri

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (13^th March – 28^th March 2021)

DRC

• 13^th March- several people were killed by ISCAP in Mutueyi in Walese-Vonkutu chiefdom in Irumu, Ituri province
• 14^th March- Kasoko village in Beni was attacked by ISCAP; shops were looted and set ablaze.
• 15^th March- 19 civilians were killed by ISCAP in Bulongo in the Rwenzori sector
• 17^th March- 1 soldier killed, several others injured after a military base in Rwenzori sector, Beni was attacked by ISCAP; ammo and assorted weapons were seized in the attack.
• 18^th March- the Islamist group attacked Ndalya trading center in Walese-Vonkutu chiefdom in Irumu, Ituri province
• 18^th March- 3 people were killed by ISCAP in Mbujimayi in Beni, North Kivu
• 19^th March- At least 6 people were killed and several others kidnapped by ISCAP terrorists in a double attack in the villages of Mataha and Kotokola in the chiefdom of Walese Vonkutu in Irumu, in Ituri province.
• 19^th March- at least 5 people were killed and several others kidnapped in the village of Hotel-Bega in the chiefdom of Walese Vonkutu, Irumu territory; victims killed in the Itilemba river majority being farmers ambushed in their farms.
• 20^th March- At least six people were killed in an attack by ISCAP-DRC in the village of Tuabamba, in the chiefdom of Walese Vonkutu, in the territory of Irumu in Ituri.
• 21^st March- 5 other lifeless bodies have just been discovered in Tuabamba, Irumu bringing the death toll to 11.
• 22^nd March- 12 peoplewere killed and several others missing in multiple attacks in Bugondo, Magimu, and several other villages near Oicha in Beni territory.
• 23^rd March- 10 people were killed, several kidnaped by ISCAP in Tchanitchani village in Mayimoy in Beni; victims executed with machetes.
• 24^th March- 5 Christians were killed after a truck and car transporting them was ambushed by ISCAP militants near Kiliya village along Beni-Kasindi road.
• 27^th March- at least 26 people missing and over 25 houses razed by ISCAP in Muziranduru village in Kainama in Beni Territory.

MOZAMBIQUE

• 10^th March- in Nangade clashes between a local militia and ISCAP led to the deaths of at least eight terrorists and the recovery of guns and machetes.
• 24^th March- ISCAP attacked Palma town with attacks targeting hotels, shops, banks, and barracks belonging to the Rapid Intervention Unit in an attack that continued for at least three days with the rescue of expat community from a local hotel making international headlines.
• 26^th March- at least seven people were killed after a caravan evacuating people from the Amarula hotel was attacked by ISCAP in Palma.

INSIGHTS AND ANALYSIS

In Mozambique, the period saw the resurgence of ISCAP in what is being viewed as one of the biggest, most sophisticated, and well-planned attacks in Palma Town. The insurgents mounted a well-planned attack that was conducted by at least 120 heavily armed militants who have held the town for five days resulting in massive human and property damage. While the attack has been mistaken as a response to the Total announcement of the resumption of operations in the gas projects the magnitude and operational intricateness of the attack show sophistication and planning that has yet to be seen in the group’s past attacks. The attack on Palma is one of the first directly against foreigners just as international allies to Mozambique pledge their help to help quash the insurgency.

The exact number of people wounded and killed, or still unaccounted for, remained unclear, while most communications with Palma have been cut off. The town of some 75,000 people had previously been a refuge for people fleeing growing insecurity and violence elsewhere in the province.

The multi-phased attack included an invasion in the town, take-over of escape routes including roads and sea line, and siege of a local hotel where hostages remained for over 48 hours. The group was able to out-maneuver the military cutting them off from reinforcement as well as escape routes especially for the expat community and locals in a town that has been receiving a huge number of refugees from various parts of CD province. The attack makes a statement seeing as it is the first since the designation as an ISIS affiliate by the US and is the genesis of what the group could potentially have in store seeing as the rainy season is coming to an end and as such the slump in attacks with it.

In DRC, the group is also taking steps in claiming its title as an ISIS affiliate with continued attacks in Beni and Irumu territories taking advantage of various factors to expand. For instance, intelligence indicates that the group has been using the rains to conduct attacks and other geographical advantages to target civilians and especially Christians. Additionally, the intelligence revealed that ISCAP-DRC death carnage is much higher as opposed to previous assumptions, most hostages are killed as they are used as couriers for war spoils and as such are disposed of off after they have completed the transportation of the loot.

Youths and residents in Beni demonstrated accusing the military of delayed responses against the militants and claimed that the Congolese soldiers only appear at scenes of attacks after the militants have attacked and left. The absence of swift action by the military has resulted in a lot of senseless deaths that can be avoided seeing as ISCAP does not use large cells to attack. While the residents accuse the military of lack of action, the soldiers are demotivated and most times are hardly paid making them more of a threat to residents with intimidation and harassment for supplies more often than not immediately after attacks by ISCAP.

CONCLUSION

• ISCAP-Mozambique has evolved in the past three months where it appeared to have slowed down as exhibited by the sophistication of the Palma attack and intelligence indicates that the group has adequate resources both financial and human.
• The take-over of Palma is a strategic move to secure the group’s revenue stream by being in control of a major ocean route.
• While COIN and CT actors still underestimate the group’s reach in Mozambique the militancy has been expanding and growing its capability and operation intricateness and will pose a greater threat in the coming days.
• In the coming days, ISCAP In Mozambique will likely conduct large-scale attacks in the various districts in CD, and as such military and CT, actors ought to revise tactic and game plans as the group has proven lethal.
• The recent designation is a major confidence booster to the group as it is steadily being legitimized and that fact alone could make it more attractive to jihadists and sympathizers.
• DRC COIN actors should reevaluate the approaches in reference to the motivation of the troops as the first major step in ensuring that the security of the region is protected and the expansion plan of ISCAP is quashed.