Weekly Counter-Terrorism Intelligence Brief for East and Central Africa (Somalia, Mozambique, DR-Congo): Tracking Islamic State Terrorists in Period of 1st March – 12th March 2021

NOTABLES:

• USA designates ISCAP Mozambique and DRC as FTOs and sanctions its leaders
• ISCAP-MZBQ attempts to capture the Nangade district by creating roadblocks and attacking villages
• ISCAP-MZBQ records the furthest west attack in Cabo Delgado
• ISCAP-MZBQ attacks border post and announces that followers can now cross as all the land belongs to Allah
• ISCAP-DRC announces the presence of cells in Tanganyika province
• ISCAP-MZBQ media shows foreign fighters including a presumed bomb-maker
• ISCAP-MZBQ continues its expansion campaign into Ituri province

ISCAP Attacks in Mozambique and DRC (1^st March – 12^th March 2021)

DRC

• 2^nd March- 13 civilians were killed in Mambelenga Market, Irumu territory in Ituri Province after ISCAP militants attacked on the market day looting and razing buildings including a health facility. Additionally, 4 terrorists were killed and 3 AK47s were recovered from the terrorists.
• 3^rd March- ISCAP claimed to have killed 7 soldiers in Mambelenga, Ituri province where they seized weapons and ammo
• 6^th March- Congolese military discovered an ISCAP base camp in the Rwenzori sector
• 7^th March- 2 civilians killed and 3 injured in an attack in Ndomo village in Irumu
• 8^th March- 8 people killed, livestock looted and at least 10 homes razed following an ISCAP attack in Apende village in Irumu
• 11^th March- 3 killed in Matombo village in Beni-Mbau sector near Beni’s capital Oicha. Victims hacked to death with machetes

MOZAMBIQUE

• 1^st March- ISCAP set roadblocks on R763 that connects Nangade and Mueda cutting the former off
• 1^st March­– 2 farmers killed in Eduardo Mondlane village in Nangade district.
• 2^nd March- ISCAP set up roadblocks near Muhia Village near the tri-border region of Nangade, Mueda, and Tanzania
• 2^nd March- ISCAP chased farmers from the farmers west of Muhia Village
• 2^nd March- ISCAP attacked, captured, looted, and burned down the border post of Namoto in Palma. Border police evacuated in choppers.
• 3^rd March- 3 soldiers including a colonel killed after their vehicle was ambushed an ISCAP roadblock in Litingina, Nangade
• 4^th March- 2 civilians killed in N’gangolo village, Nangade
• 4^th March- Samora Machel Village, Nangade raided
• 4^th March- 3 de Fevereiro village located 9km east of Nangade town attacked, residents fled as houses were burned to the ground.
• 6^th March- hostages were rescued, looted goods recovered after Mozambican military with 5-chopper aerial support attacked ISCAP encampment in Nkonga
• 8^th March- 2 farmers were killed as they returned from their fields in Litingina, Nangade district.

INSIGHTS AND ANALYSIS

This week saw the United States designating ISCAP both in DRC and Mozambique as FTO as well as sanctioning their respective leaders a move that could be a game-changer in the COIN operations in the countries. The designation comes as both groups appear to be resurging as in Mozambique which has seen a lull in the recent weeks is working towards capturing Nangade district. The designation of ISCAP could trigger a huge wave of increased recruits and attacks to garner international traction and headlines geared at justifying the newly acquired stature. The groups could gain sympathy from international allies and as such, the next couple of months are very critical as they will guide the trajectory of the groups and the effectiveness of future CT campaigns. The designation and sanctions are also pivotal as local authorities still consider both groups as a local militia with religious inclinations which has in the past hindered them from launching operations against them with the magnitude accorded a terror organization such as al Shabaab in Somalia or Boko Haram in Nigeria.

In Mozambique major transport routes have been blocked both by ISCAP and heavy rains that have left the roads used to deliver military and humanitarian support impassible. ISCAP has been erecting roadblocks, especially towards Nangade town with the aim to cut it off from the rest of the province as well as offer ample diversions for attacks and ambushes on military convoys plying the road. It is crucial to note that while the heavy rains have seemingly lulled activities by the group as they ease up a major uptick in attacks is expected.

ISCAP has been active progress to take over Nangade district with attacks reported farthest west in the province since the insurgency began. It is paramount to note that the group attacked the border post and announced on its social media platforms that it had opened the border with Tanzania and urged foreign fighters to crossover into Cabo Delgado and join the fight. The announcement comes as intelligence indicates that the majority of the upper echelon leadership is Tanzanian including the overall leader Abu Yassir Hasan aka Abu Qassim. The movement towards the Tanzanian border has huge repercussions as it goes to feeding the narrative observable from available intelligence that ISCAP is expanding into Tanzania and a corridor could be established to link DRC and Mozambique by way of Tanzania. It is further echoed by a recent social media post by ISCAP DRC that speaks of a cell in Tanganyika province that is further south and far away from North Kivu and Ituri provinces.

In DRC, ISCAP the group under the leadership of Seka Musa Baluku alongside six leaders of the group’s leaders in DRC. The designation comes as the group continues its relentless assaults on civilians in Ituri and North Kivu Provinces that have seen a major upsurge since the beginning of the year. ISCAP continues to attack villages and take hostages with the aim to create a caliphate under Islam law creating encampments in the villages they capture.

Additionally, ISCAP has sifted their attack targets in recent weeks to include attacking Christians in churches and public places like markets as well as farmers. Their media propaganda wing on social media has been posting pictures and media from the attacks where it is observable that the group has a number of foreign fighters. This goes further to support the fact that ISCAP has been recruiting all across the region and possibly have a bomb-maker as evidenced in the attempted use of IEDs since October 2020. The threat by ISCAP in DRC has seemingly expanded as the group recently announced the presence of a cell in the Tanganyika province which is located further south and could potentially be used to lure fighters from the southern nations that seek to join ISCAP. Additionally, the recent designation is a major confidence booster to the group as it is steadily being legitimized and that fact alone could make it more attractive to jihadists in the Greater Lakes Region that did not have access and or means to travel to Somalia or Mozambique.