The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab al Mujahideeen’s rank and file did not grow in size in 2020 and early 2021. In fact, its rank and file declined significantly due to three main factors; COVID-19, ISCAP appeal, and its declining appeal to regional wannabe’s. This has forced the group to seek alternative means to replenish its declining file. New means include breaking prisons and freeing fighters from Somalia jails. The terrorist group’s intelligence chief Abu Abdirahman Warsame (Mahad Karatey) issued a rare audio statement celebrating the 5th March 2021 attack on Bosasso Prison in which 400 prisoners were freed. All freed Al-Shabaab and those prisoners who were interested in joining the group were taken to a safe place for reintegration and conscription. In addition, Warsame vowed more attacks and revenge against enemies.
Shabaab lost approximately 100 fighters including a senior operations commander and IED experts to Islamic States affiliate in Northern Somalia, Abnaa ul Caliphaa. A Few dozens more succumbed to COVID-19 related complications late 2021. Intervention measures meant to curb spread of the pandemic, particularly travel restrictions in East Africa denied the terrorist group new recruits with only a handful from the region making it to enlist.
Islamic States Central Africa Province (ISCAP in DR-Congo, Mozambique, Tanzania & Uganda) has appealed to the wannabe jihadists in the East and Central Africa region denying the Al-Qaeda affiliate new recruits. Al-Shabaab main source of recruits was Tanzania’s southern regions; Pwani and Mtwara. These areas are now ISCAP dominated with cells opting Islamic States terror group present there and across the border with Mozambique. Others have found DR Congo better for adventure and socio-religious factors.
However, Shabaab al Mujahideen was able to recruit a small number of local fighter in Somalia, Ethiopia, and Yemeni within that period. A Decline in its economic lifelines due to the pandemic also affected its capabilities and recruitment drive. The group will likely grow in 2021 as COVID-19 restrictions are lifted and travel resumes. The group’s capability to conduct attacks targeting military camps has been significantly depleted as the group fears losing fighters and lead to an operational constrain. The group has opted to rely on small suicide teams targeting hotels in the Capital Mogadishu while increasing Probing attacks on military camps. Probing attacks are of zero consequence militarily apart from indication of enemy signature in an area of Counter Terrorism Operations.
