Harakat Shabaab al Mujahideen (HSM), the Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, has upscaled its efforts to conduct in East Africa. The terrorist group has increased its activity from across the regions of the war-torn Somalia and in Kenya, especially Northeastern prefecture counties bordering Somalia.
The terrorist group has successfully entrenched itself in central and southern Somalia with an insurgency that continue to Somali security forces, foreign troops and Somali citizenry. The group’s increased activity continues to pose threat and significant burden on the countries the East Africa countries affected and more so to local and regional forces combating them.
Counterterrorism efforts continue to play key role towards degrading of Al-Shabaab. The void left by U.S. pulling out it troops from Somalia need to urgently be looked into, citing they were responsible for a number of successful airstrikes against the Islamists, Al-Shabaab. U.S. forces also were engaged in training of a Somali Special Forces Unit, the Danab. More support to be accorded to the local Somali troops before AMISOM also withdraws troops.
In the past one week, Al-Shabaab has escalated its attacks in Somalia recording close to two dozen attacks. Mandera, a Kenya county has also recorded a few attacks that have concentrated on destruction of BTS communication mast.
The Islamist Al-Shabaab continue to target SNA and AMISOM troops in their bases, convoys especially in the rural areas and small towns in the southern and central parts of the country. Kenya has also become a direct target of the Somalia based Al-Shabaab. After a lull in group’s activity along the border, Al-Shabaab has resumed to target military posts, police, police reservists, and telecommunications infrastructure in northeastern Kenya prefectures, especially in Mandera county, a longtime area of recruitment for the militant group. Security experts at Strategic Intelligence have warned of frequent attacks in Mandera as intertwined with local politics and clannism dynamics with links with top politicians.
Recently Claimed Attacks (January 15th – January 22)
- On January 16, a powerful IED explosion reported in the center of the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that the IED explosion targeted a vehicle carrying the Minister of Agriculture, hitting a car while traveling on the road between Elgaabta and Hamar Jajab. The car was badly damaged though the minister survived from the targeted blast.
- On January 16, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have killed 4 AMISOM’s Ugandan soldiers and injured 3 others following a roadside bomb attack on a military convoy in the outskirt of Shalambod town in Somalia’s Lower Shabelle region.
- On January 17, Massive roadside bomb blast hits a military convoy carrying Somali and foreign military officers near Tihxiile area in Lower Shabelle region. At least 3 US-trained Somali forces (Danab) killed, 4 others, including 2 senior commanders, badly wounded.
- On January 19, Al-Shabaab fighters recaptured the strategic village of Mashalay in outskirt of Qoryoley town, Lower Shabelle after withdrawal of AMISOM troops who controlled village for past 7 years as per local sources.
- On January 19, Al-Shabaab fighters claimed to have ambushed AMISOM’s Ugandan troops near Barawe, Lower Shabelle. Militants claim to have killed 3 soldiers.
- On January 19, A youth leader and former journalist Abdirashid Ali Dubad was one of four people killed in Al-Shabaab IED attack along with three others in the Mogadishu suburb of Garasbaley on Tuesday. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of the attack via their propaganda media channels.
- On January 19, Al-Shabaab claimed attacks In Banadir region of Somalia. Initial reports indicate that Al-Shabaab fighters launched a direct attack on the security checkpoints set up by the Somali government forces – SNA in Bulo Mahay neighborhood of Karaan district. Shabaab claimed to have killed two SNA soldiers.
- January 20, Abdihakim Dhagajuun, Commissioner of Hodan, Mogadishu’s most populous district killed in a suspected Al-Shabaab shooting. Dhagajuun returned from Turkey today where he has been undergoing treatment after he was injured in IED attack in November.
- On January 20, Al-Shabaab militants attacked and destroyed a communication mast in Sarman area, Mandera County. No injury was reported in the latest incident.
- On January 20, Massive roadside explosion claimed by Al-Shabaab hits a Somali military convoy escorting the governor of Lower Shabelle region, Abduqadir Sidi, near Balidogle airfield. 3 SNA soldiers killed, 5 others injured, one military vehicle destroyed. The governor survived the blast as per local reports.
- On January 20, Yaqshid district commissioner survived assassination attempt. Local reports from Mogadishu confirm that a car bomb exploded close to a police station in the capital Mogadishu targeting a vehicle carrying Yaqshid district commissioner Mohamed Abdullahi Carif. The DC narrowly escaped the blast but three of his bodyguards were wounded.
- On January 21, Reports from Burdhubo district of Gedo indicate that a mortar attack on Ethiopian troops killed at least 2 soldiers and three others wounded. Al Shabaab fighters fired several shells at the Ethiopian military base near the Burdhubo district bridge.
- On January 21, Reports from the Middle Shabelle region indicate Al-Shabaab ambushed a convoy of troops supporting the government of Somalia forces while traveling on the road that connects the area Qalimoow and Gubadley.
- On January 21, Al-Shabaab assassinated a federal intelligence officer in Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that Dhuub Abdi Mire, a government intelligence official, was shot dead by Al-Shabaab gunmen in Bakara Market in Mogadishu.
- On January 21, Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility of a Roadside bomb blast that targeted Ethiopian military convoy travelling between Hudur and El-Barde towns in Somalia’s Bakool region. The blast killed three Ethiopian – ENDF soldiers and two Somali soldiers and wounded five others. This was the second time ENDF troops were targeted in a week.
Analysis/Observations
For many years, Somalia has been mired in conflict driven by clan warlords and violent extremist groups competing for power. Over a dozen reconciliation conferences have been held outside Somalia. All have failed to solve the insurgent’s crisis. The Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab insurgent group and the Somali government have remained locked in a violent stalemate for years. Despite concerted counterterrorism operations that have over the years seen the Islamist militants lose key towns and localities, the group however has remained resilient and persistent conducting raids.
The militant group has escalated attacks in Somalia regions more so on both local and foreign military targets. The group has maintained a tempo of at least two to three attacks al most every day in Somalia. More attacks continue to be recorded over the weekends (Friday through to Sunday).
The terrorists have been planting explosives on the routes used by the security agencies attacking them. Notable, in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab has escalated attacks on security forces as well assassination attempts of key government officials. Use of IEDs, landmines, car bombs and roadside bomb increasingly common on frequently used routes by security forces. Ambush attacks also becoming another preferred attack type on military convoys and forward operating bases followed by indiscriminate gun fire on targets to maximize casualties.
In Kenya’s Northeastern Prefectures especially Mandera county has reported increased militant’s activity, notably ambush of public service vehicles. At least two incidents have been reported in a span of two days in Banisa sub-county of Mandera. Banisa is located about 200km from the Kenya Somalia border and has only been experiencing militant’s as well as banditry incidents spilling in from Somalia and Ethiopia. The militant group has been destroying telecommunication infrastructure and cutting off communication especially in the upper NEP, Kenya. A number of local security forces, mostly the police reservists have suffered the brunt the militants.
The Al-Qaeda aligned terrorists have been targeting security installations besides telecommunication masts in the area in a series of incidents destroying them. Nonetheless, Kenya security operators have increased counter operations along the border prefectures with Somalia to avert the spike noted on civilians’ targets (especially travelers).
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) will continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activities in East Africa regions in an effort to provide actionable intelligence towards thwarting and disrupting militant’s activities in the region.
More airstrikes should be deployed against Al-Shabaab positions. Destruction of pro-Al-Shabaab propaganda radio facilities among other networks should be encouraged in order to counter militant’s media promoting their claims, which mostly are exaggerated to achieve their warfare goals.
Joint CT and COIN actors urged not to relent on mounting concerted military pressure on the Islamist groups in an effort to disrupt and weakening their network besides their plans; thus, already gains made against the militant group will be preserved and sustained denying the group fertile grounds as well as local support to thrive.
