The Islamic State branch in Somalia, Abnaa Ul Calipha has released a video that has documented the group’s activities, purported agenda as well as projections of the group’s future. The 56-minute video is the group’s attempts at rebranding and repositioning themselves as a lethal enemy to both the Federal Government of Somalia and the al Qaeda-affiliated organization in Somalia, al Shabaab.
The video pays homage to its parent group ISIS in Iraq and Syria showing parallels between the group in the Middle East and ISS in Somalia. The video pays particular interest in the invalidity of al Shabaab and Al Qaeda and the superiority Of ISS’ agenda fostering jihadism and criticizing Sunni jihadis who fail to be harsh and ruthless in their agendas. Like in many ISIS films, their transitions from scene to scene to develop the narrative are well articulated to signify that the group has resources and personnel that shot the video. They start with speakers, transitions to fighters speaking, then to leaders speaking to their troops, and then to a battle.
Notably, the video shows the soldiers seizing weapons, ammo, medical supplies as well as other spoils from enemies killed in battle. The video also has numerous tributes to its fallen martyrs both young and old as well as interrogations of prisoners of war who are primarily from al Shabaab. Earlier in the year, the rivalry between the two groups especially in Puntland was at an all-time high and the group attacked and killed each other in northern Somalia as they both seek dominance in ISS’ headquarters. While ISS splintered from al Shabaab, the two groups have cultivated a rivalry and tensions that stem from their ideological difference as well as allegiances pledged and the seeming scramble for dominance in the Horn of Africa.
Evidentially, while ISS has had oversight authority over ISCAP, the group has presented as docile and only conducting lone assassination-type attacks with Mogadishu to remain relevant, and as such, the video is an exaggerated attempt in showing might. The group has maintained a centralized training-no-attacks presence in Puntland and the video is an attempt at psyops and announcing its resurgence as the year comes to a close. However, while the group’s threat level has remained low, If the video is anything to go by, the threat it poses and promise for attacks in the future especially on the government apparatus ought not to be taken lightly. The video evidences that the group is not short of recruits and fighters, weapons, and other supplies as well as technological capabilities to pose a major threat. It is evident that the group has been amercing fighters, weapons, and especially the quality of the video signifies the presence of a highly trained media team that will be effective in the production of propaganda material. CT efforts and strategies in Somalia would be reckless to dismiss the group as small and localized and instead should treat the threat by Abnaa Ul Calipha as imminent and dealt with robustly and in totality. Furthermore, the video should be considered as a threat issued and a call to new recruits as well as embedded cells to get ready to attack and win against the Somali government.
