Counterterrorism Situation Brief for East Africa: In Summary
Africa is certainly going to be the battleground of jihad for the next 20 years and it’s going to replace the Middle East. In East Africa, the Al-Qaeda affiliate often seek to win over the loyalty of local populations by exploiting regional and ethnic grievances. The Somalia based Al-Shabaab militant group, has been one of the most persistent jihadist movement on the entire Africa continent waging its insurgency specifically in East Africa.
Al-Shabaab which has waged its heinous insurgency in East Africa region for more than a decade has survived concerted multinational military campaigns to eradicate it. Despite these converted military efforts, the jihadist group has been able to strike across its borders in Kenya and Uganda as well as detonating massive bombs in the Somali capital, Mogadishu.
Though, US Special Operations raids and drone strikes have seen a number of group’s leaders killed, the group has been able to keep regenerating besides regrouping its troops and indication how resilient the group has become.
Al-Shabaab militant group continue to stage attacks targeting both civilian and military targets. In Somalia, US which play a huge function in training of Somalia Special Operations Unit commonly know as Danab, has lately also suffered casualties from the Islamist militants.
Last month, unnamed American died alongside four Somali officers when extremists detonated a car bomb. The CIA officer was deployed alongside Somali and US special forces during the operation at Gendershe, a coastal village about 30 miles south-west of the capital Mogadishu, and died when fighters from the Al-Shabaab militant group detonated a car bomb minutes after the raid began on 6 November.
The joint US-SNA Danab troops’ operation was launched following intelligence reports that three senior Al-Shabaab commanders would be in Gendershe that night. Among them was Abdullahi Osman Mohamed, an expert bomb-maker believed to be responsible for an attack that killed an American soldier in Kenya Manda-bay last year. Al-Shabaab propaganda sources boasted of the clash, and claimed they had ambushed the US and Somali forces after learning of the operation in advance.
Mohamed alias “Engineer Ismail” was recently listed by the US government as a “specially designated global terrorist”. He is believed to be explosive devices (IEDs) that have killed hundreds of civilians in Somalia in recent years.
The deaths of US soldiers in Somalia have prompted a fierce debate on their broader involvement in Africa. The US has more than 5,000 military personnel under the mandate of US Africa military command (AFRICOM) with most based in a single major base in Djibouti on the Red Sea. Between 650 and 800 troops are operating in Somalia. US is debating on how many troops to keep in Somalia as Al-Shabaab remains a threat to America and its allies.
Geopolitics & How Al-Shabaab will Benefit from US & AMISOM Withdrawal of Troops
The Al-Qaeda’s East Africa affiliate is cited to benefit once US and AMISOM troops finally withdraws from Somalia.
- The expected withdrawal of US and AMISOM troops supporting the weak Federal Government Forces (SNA) with greatly cause instability in Somalia and also in Ethiopia that is witness war crisis in Tigray.
- Both US and AMISOM troops apart supporting SNA in battling the extremists Al-Shabaab, the foreign troops have been taking a huge task of training the Somali forces besides offering security and intelligence guided advisory.
- Without foreign troops supporting SNA, Al-Shabaab which already has morphed its capability will certainly begin capturing more regions and expanding its foothold.
- The militant group which also has perfected the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) will become more lethal. The group has increasingly continued to develop its advanced bomb-making capability.
- The exit of US forces would highly likely derail the US-trained Somali special forces (Danab) that have pressured Al-Shabaab’s leadership and reduced its most brazen and destructive terror attacks inside Somalia.
- As Somalia draws down to elections and now the anticipated US withdrawal of its troops, the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab will highly likely attempt to disrupt the elections and their outcome and may escalate rising tensions between Somalia and Kenya. Somalia has already accused Nairobi of hosting Somalia’s opposition in what Mogadishu termed as a move aimed at interfering with their elections. Nairobi has distanced itself from those allegations. The further deterioration of Kenyan-Somali relations could also disrupt counterterrorism coordination to Al-Shabaab’s benefit.
- The risk of renewed hostilities between Kenya and Somalia is high, and will create leeway for Al-Shabaab to attack, including in Kenya and possibly Ethiopia. Al-Shabaab will exploit the advantage of the security vacuum by subsequently staging attacks along the volatile Kenyan-Somali border.
- Finally, Al-Shabaab is set gain from the withdrawal of thousands of Ethiopian forces amid a security crisis in northern Ethiopia Tigray. The Islamist militant group subsequently may possibly seek to expand into Ethiopia directly by exploiting the current conflict to embed its cells.
In barely a week (first five days of December), Al-Shabaab has recorded a number of attacks in Kenya and in Somalia. The militants threat level in both countries is skewed towards military operating bases, police outposts as well as patrol units.
Recently Claimed Attacks (December 1st – December 4th)
- On December 2nd, an Al-Shabaab militant killed while planting a landmine in Warta Nabada district of Somalia’s capital Mogadishu. No civilian or security forces’ casualty was report.
- On December 3rd, Al-Shabaab claimed attack on Kenya’s, Amuma Police outpost in Garissa County. One police officer reportedly killed and another wounded in the ten minutes gun raid. The militants also damaged the station’s armory badly before escaping.
- On December 3rd, Three Federal soldiers from the 60th Division were killed and another one escaped during an encounter with Al-Shabaab in Daynunay area near Baidoa. Initial reports indicate that the 4 government soldiers had left their operating base in attempt to reach Baidoa but were ambushed by Shabaab fighters.
- On December 3rd, Al-Shabaab fighters attempted attack at Kudha Island in Somalia’s Lower Juba region against AMISOM troops thwarted. Militant’s casualties reported.
- On December 3rd, Fierce gunfire and explosions heard in parts of Somalia capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that at least 3 security checkpoints in the capital were attacked by Al-Shabaab militants armed with RPGs and machine guns.
Assessment/Observations & Insights
Somalia which has struggled a tenacious and effective Al-Shabaab strategy for about 15 years ultimately is facing a crisis in the event AMISOM and US finally exits the Horn of Africa nation.
Somalia has in the recent past weeks witnessed resumption of large-scale attacks. Major attacks have happened in the capital Mogadishu and indication that the group is determined to retake Mogadishu after being pushed from the capital some years back by AMISOM troops.
In the most recent bomb attack by Al-Shabaab, at least seven people were killed and many more injured in an ice-cream parlour in Mogadishu on Saturday. Also, two weeks ago, five died in another suicide attack on a restaurant near a police academy in the city of Mogadishu.
Separately, Al-Shabaab has boasted of yet another large-scale raid on SNA military base in Ba’adweyn, Mudug region of Somalia. Al-Shabaab propaganda media paraded spoils seized from the military base they overran claiming they killed dozens of government troops.
The regions, towns and localities as mapped, especially those for Somalia have usually recorded at least two or three attacks per week in the past recent months. Concentrated attacks have happened on localities where there are military forward operating bases and thus more repeat attacks. Key Al-Shabaab sanctuaries persist in central Somalia, especially in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, and in southern Somalia in Bay, Gedo, and Middle and Lower Juba regions. Al-Shabaab is able to project force from Somalia and safe havens along the eastern border with Kenya to attack Kenyan security forces and soft targets in Kenya’s Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Lamu counties.
The group’s propaganda media channels remain very active, documenting every terror event either in Kenya or Somalia. Though the militant group has exaggerated the outcomes of its raids as a warfare strategy, nonetheless, the group’s intent and resolve remain unchanged.
COVID-19 has also come with a fair share of challenges in East Africa. While the countries are still battling to contain the pandemic, lockdowns have reduced the large gatherings that Islamist militants typically target, spies have found it harder to conduct covert surveillance on empty streets. Subsequently, extremists have gained substantial ground, having a lifetime opportunity to conduct online recruitment. Possible recruiting home-schooling teenagers often left alone for hours a day with computers and phones. Jihadist’s content continues to be posted and shared on online platforms everyday targeting potential recruits.
Conclusion
The aforementioned Al-Shabaab activities discussed above, are pointers that the enemy is more determined to carry attacks in its home base and in Kenya, another target of the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab. The more they share spoils and images of their successful raids, the higher are the chances of exciting other cells to conduct martyrdom and ambush raids.
Therefore, it is important to reflect on what is going on in the locations which have been under review considering that previously, there was a large militants’ concentration. There is a need to establish whether enemy troops relocated from these locations or occasional lull for example in Kenya’s northeastern prefectures is meant to achieve strategic surprise. Consequently, there is a need to activate counterterrorism field sources in these locations and sustain aerial surveillance to pick on enemy signatures. By so doing, CT and COIN taking part in the operations will be able to act on broader intelligence sources to thwart and preempt threat posed by Al-Qaeda linked Al-Shabaab in East Africa.
