In Summary
With many focused on the dangerous and current conflict in Ethiopia, the East Africa region countries and especially Somalia is facing a triple security crisis. If unaddressed, it could severely jeopardize the country’s made progress against the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab.
The current conflict in in Ethiopia’s Tigray province is affecting the entire region, with its consequences being felt most keenly in Somalia. Citing Ethiopian troops are part of African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) mandate at helping Somalia and broader East Africa region to fight Al-Shabaab.
To the east, it is jihadist-stricken Somalia that is mostly feeling the impact of Ethiopia’s hostilities. The current crisis has already diverted Ethiopian CT forces from Somalia, and a prolonged conflict may spell disaster for Somalia’s security even in the wake of much anticipated withdrawal of partners forces by next year.
There has been political dreadlock in Somalia. Tensions are running high among the federal government of Somalia, federal member states, and Somalia’s various clans over the distribution of military, political, and economic resources between the capital and the regions.
The Islamist militant group continue to exploit these kinds of crisis, political instability in Somalia, besides clan politics to propel their agenda of toppling Mogadishu administration. In the past five days, Al-Shabaab has conducted at least a number of attacks in Somalia. A decline in a number of attacks has been noted over the past weekend as compared to previous weekends where increased militant’s activities are recorded. No major terror activity was registered on Kenya, another key target for the Islamist militants.
Recently Claimed Attacks (November 20th – November 24th)
- On November 20th, A civilian was killed after a suspected hand grenade was thrown near a hotel in Galkayo town tonight, the capital of the north-central Mudug region of Somalia. Security forces reportedly launched a search.
- On November 20th, AMISOM troops successfully repelled a probing attack by Al-Shabaab militants in the vicinity of Afmadow, Lower Juba, no casualties were reported.
- On November 21st, shooting by Al-Shabaab gunmen leaves three young men dead in the vicinity of Elasha Biyaha, outside Mogadishu, early on Saturday. Local reports indicate that the men were travelling in a car at Jabadgelle road when they were attacked.
- On November 22nd, Al-Shabaab claimed to have also carried attacks on Somali military base in Janale district in Lower Shabelle region, causing casualties and property damage.
- On November 23rd, two simultaneous roadside bombs hit US-trained Somali troops near the American base at Balidogle airfield, 110 km northwest of Mogadishu. Reports indicate that the landmine went off just near Lego town in Lower Shabelle region a short while after the troops left the Baledogle airbase, south-central Somalia. Six soldiers were killed and several others wounded in landmine blast as per open sources reports. Al-Shabaab propaganda media claimed that the militants killed 12 soldiers. No comment so far from Somali army.
- On November 23rd, Intelligence officer killed in and around Mogadishu. a federal security official was killed in Huriwa district of Mogadishu by Al-Shabaab assassins. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility for attacks in the capital Mogadishu and its surrounding.
Assessment/Observations
Facing elections and a potential US and AMISOM eventual withdrawal, risks to Somalia’s security abound and if not carefully dealt with could deal blows to already gains made against terrorists.
Security situation in the Horn of African nation, Somalia has been slowly but steadily deteriorating, with Al-Shabab conducting attacks along major Somali roads and in major Somali cities across much of the country, including Mogadishu.
The Islamist militants continue to stage attacks on both local and foreign troops military bases with operation areas remaining in central and southern Somalia. The use of IEDs, landmines, RIEDs, car bombs and ambushes remain some of the most preferred attack types employed by Al-Shabaab.
Going forward, Somali National Army and coalition forces needs to reconfigure their presence and operations to support the Somali Transition Plan effectively. In order to conduct effective offensive operations against the Al-Qaeda’s Al-Shabaab, coalition forces would need to move away from a static and defensive posture and become more agile. Ideally with the capability to outpace the militants’ and strike them from hideouts.
Nevertheless, there should also be consistent CT/COIN cooperation and well, multi-pronged offensive operations launched by local forces, the Somali Danab advanced infantry units and supported by coalition partners in order to substantially degrade the militants’ force.
