Weekly East Africa Counterterrorism Intelligence Brief in Period of 11th November – 20th November: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa (Kenya and Somalia)

In Summary

The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continues to mount attacks in East Africa region. The Islamist militants notably have especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks over the years.

Kenya’s Kinetic and Non-Kinetic Counter Terrorism Operations have yielded significantly better results in 2020 compared to past 5 years. However, the threat of terrorism is persistent, particularly the one posed by grassroots jihadists in NEP and the Coastal prefecture. These areas remain vulnerable to jihadist ideologies.

Its also notable Shabaab commented on the Ethiopia-Tigray conflict, denying the Ethiopian state security agencies claim that it’s cells were outed while planning attacks in support of the TPLF.

The Al-Qaeda affiliate also restarted large scale demonstrative attacks in Mogadishu, the Somali capital, fusing suicide bombing with R-IED targeting civilians and AMISOM troops on patrol.

Compared to the previous week, the terrorist group seems to have been following up on geopolitical events in the region, objectively, to align its mission with the fluid events thus optimize its ideological propaganda and political push.

Al-Shabaab persistent activities continue to be reported from across a number of theaters in Somalia though the militant group persistently has sustained insurgency in central and southern regions. In the past few days, the Islamist militants recorded at least 14 attacks all in Somalia regions as listed below.

Recently Claimed Attacks (11^th November – 20^th November)

• On November 11^th, An Al-Shabaab roadside landmine detonated near Dhusamareb city in central Somalia’s Galgudud region. The explosion reportedly killed two SNA soldiers. The region continues to record similar repeats attacks. For example, an Al-Shabaab roadside IED detonated near Dhusamareb in late October, injured at least one SNA soldier.
• On November 12^th, reports from Baidoa town, the provincial capital of Bay region of Somalia confirmed that Al-Shabaab fighters conducted mortar attack on AMISOM’s Ethiopian military bases in Baidoa town. The militants fired several rounds of mortar shells causing casualties and damage of military property.
• On November 13^th, reports from Hodan district in Mogadishu confirm that a car bomb had exploded at a police station in the capital Mogadishu. Hodan district commissioner identified as Abdi Karin Dhagajun and two of his bodyguards killed in the blast.
• On November 13^th, the Minister of Environment and Tourism of the Jubbaland administration narrowly escaped an assassination attempt following an IED explosion in Kismayo, killing three of his bodyguards.
• On November 13^th, in a separate operation same day, Al-Shabaab militants attempted to assassinate a Somali regional minister with an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in Kismayo city in southern Somalia’s Lower Jubba region. The attack killed two bodyguards and one civilian.
• On November 15^th, Al-Shabaab claims to have killed Beledweyne district official in Bundaweyne neighborhood, Hiran region of Somalia.

• On November 15^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed a Somali government soldier in a car bomb attack on the outskirts of Shalanbood in Lower Shabelle.  Two others wounded.
• On November 17th, Massive explosion reported near Somalia’s main police academy in the capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that suspected Al-Shabaab bomber blew himself up at gathering of police officers at General Kahiye academy in Mogadishu’s Hamar-Jajab distirct. Casualties reported. Al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 12 police officers and wounded 14 others. Somalia Police spokesman said 6 people were killed and 8 others wounded.
• On November 17^th, A roadside bomb hit a Ugandan military convoy on patrol in the Kaaraan district of Mogadishu. Soldiers and civilians wounded in the blast. Al-Shabaab claimed responsibility.
• On November 18^th, A roadside bomb hit a Ugandan military convoy on patrol in the Kaaraan district of Mogadishu. Soldiers and civilians wounded in the blast.
• On November 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed to have ambushed an AMISOM military base in Qoqani area of Afmadow district, Lower Juba.  No casualties were reported. The attack was however repulsed.
• On November 18^th, Al-Shabaab claimed an IED blast on AMISOM-Ethiopian troops in Qansahdheere, Bay region of Somalia. Two soldiers were killed and four others wounded.
• On November 19^th, At least one soldier was killed and three civilians were injured on Thursday when in a huge blast in Lafole neighborhood on the outskirts of Somali capital Mogadishu. Initial reports indicate that a roadside bomb hit Somali government forces in Lafole, causing casualties.
• On November 19^th, Al-Shabaab and AMISOM’s Djiboutian troops clashed in the vicinity of Jalalaqsi town, in the south-central Hiran province of Somalia. No casualties were reported.

Assessment/Observations

Notably, the militants continue to deploy the use of IEDs, landmines and roadside bombs to target on both SNA and AMISOM troops. The use of explosives remains one of the militant’s most preferred attack type.

However, ambush raids continue to be witnessed on military convoys besides on military bases. Al-Shabaab continue to exploit the advantage of thick vegetation from areas and regions they still hold large swathes to mount surprise raids on military troops and their convoys.

This past week, the Islamist militants have targeted AMISOM military bases and convoys especially in Bay, Hiran, outside Mogadishu and in Lower Juba regions.

Persistently, Al-Shabaab continue to fight the joint troops and the Federal Government of Somalia in an effort to establish control of more areas and regions. Currently, Al-Shabaab activities continue to be recorded in regions of central and southern Somalia.

In the week under review, no activity was recorded on Kenyan soil bearing in mind, the Somalia neighbor remains a key Al-Shabaab target especially the countries northern prefectures bordering Somalia. Despite this lull, Kenyan CT-actors should remain alert and vigilant along the border with Somalia to thwart and preempt any possible terrorist threat.

Despite concerted CT-ops and interventions, Al-Shabaab remains resilient conducting attacks, though low intensity attacks from across various regions of Somalia. The group continues to exploit clan’s politics, in the rural areas, Al-Shabaab continues to portray as if its charging justice by punishing elements accused of various crimes thereby fronting itself as an alternative to the locals.

Somalia worries that a U.S. withdrawal that is anticipated will be disastrous to the country that hugely relies on the support of its partner forces and allies. AMISOM is also fronted to exit the Horn of Africa nation by the end of 2021. Experts say it will not only present another huge challenge for the Somali government but also exert additional pressure on security agencies’ ability to tackle the threat from Al-Shabaab.

Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continues to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the Horn of Africa region and warns of unchanged militant’s upsurge.  Joint CT and COIN actors not to relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamists groups in an effort to disrupt their network besides their plans. In order for such gains to be sustained, military operations must be situated in the context of a broader, multifaceted strategy particularly concerted to deny Al-Shabaab local support and to dismantle its “governorates” and their forces.