Al-Shabaab is a dangerous enemy that presents a threat to Somalia and its neighbors, especially Kenya. The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continue to stage attacks in East Africa.
In the past 30 days (one month), the Somali-based Islamists militant group has claimed at least 73 attacks in both Somalia and Kenya. This is a slight increase as compared to September where 65 attacks were recorded for both East African countries.
Despite the challenges brought forth by the current Corona Virus pandemic, the militant group continue to demonstrate its capability to conduct attacks, adapt and weather convectional military operations. Al-Shabaab has morphed in both its strategy and tactical capabilities to either match or outmatch military assets and despite concerted military pressure from local and coalition partner forces, the militant group remains resilient.
In the Horn of Africa, Somalia, the group’s attacks trend-line indicates that the Islamist militant group carry at least an attack in a day, but multiple attacks are recorded on weekends (Saturdays and Sundays). In the month of June and October, the group recorded an average of two to three attacks daily Somalia targeting SNA troops and AMISOM troops.
In Summary: Claimed Attacks in October
- Mogadishu: (KM4, Wadajir, Hamar Jajab, Mogadishu’s Bakara market, Daynile) – 17 Attacks.
- Lower Shabelle: (Outskirts of Awdheegle, Barawe, Qoryoley, Janale, Lambar 60 Marka town vicinity, Haanta area, outside Afgooye) – 17 Attacks.
- Lower Juba: (Kulbiyow, Tabto, Dhobley, BarSanguuni and Kudhaa Island) – 8 Attacks.
- Middle Juba: – 3 Attacks.
- Gedo: (Bardheere, Burdhubo) – 4 Attacks
- Bay:( Baidoa, Makunda, Dinsor town, Qansahdhere) – 7 Attacks
- Hiran: (Bulo-burde, Jalalaqsi town and Booco area in Halgan) – 5 Attacks
- Middle Shabelle: (El-Baraf and Biyo Adde, Balad) – 4 Attacks
- Galgadud: (Dhusamareb Airport, Tuula Barqadle and Bula Haji villages) – 3 Attacks
- Mudug: (Galkayo vicinity) – 2 Attack
- Sanaag: (Mirici, Masha-Alled and Habasha Aw-Ali) – 1 Attack.
- Mandera, Kenya: (Lafey) – 2 Attacks
- Wajir, Kenya (near border with Mandera’s Elwak) – 2 Attacks
Assessment & Observations
Al-Shabaab routinely attacks Somali citizens, military forces, and its coalitions partners. The Islamist group continue to target security troop’s convoys as well as their military bases.
Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Bay, Hiran and Middle Shabelle have become the preferred battle zones for Al-Shabaab. The militant’s guerilla and ambush attacks in the named regions have gained tract citing the advantage of vegetation and geography favoring the militants in their endeavors.
The militant group preferred attack type remains the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), VBIEDs, landmines and roadside bombs but in the past two months, the militant group has perfected ambush raids on military convoys and also on their operating bases and outposts.
Assassinations have also been witnessed on targeted local government officials especially in the capital Mogadishu. A number of targeting shootings, amputations and executions also witnessed on individuals mostly charged at the Al-Shabaab’s courts, (Those accused of stealing, rape and spying for security assets).
The Somali extremists, concentrated it attacks on Somali security forces, their bases, AMISOM FOBs and convoys in a number of theaters in Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Bay and Hiran, regions of Somalia. There has been a spike in number of executions and targeted assassinations in Mogadishu and its environs. The militant group also claimed one attack Galgadud and another attack in Bari region of the semi-autonomous Puntland State.
It is notable that Al-Shabaab controls about a fifth of Somalia territory with relentless efforts to establish control beyond central and southern Somalia theaters which for now remains the group’s main operational areas. Al-Shabaab which for many years preferred staging attacks in the capital Mogadishu has changed tactic and attack patterns has shifted from the capitals to towns, villages and localities of central and southern Somalia.
In Kenya, few incidents have been recorded especially in northeastern prefectures. Those few incidents have been recorded in Mandera localities targeting on security patrol teams and also public service vehicles targeting non-locals. However, its paramount that Kenyan security assets be vigilant as militants resolve to strike on Kenyan soil and targets remain unchanged. Security patrol teams, surveillance to be enhanced besides scouts to be on alerts meters away from their defense posts.
Al-Shabaab’s Strengths & Weakness
- Al-Shabaab’s strengths lie in the ability to mobilize its fighters on short notice and also in smaller units to avoid movement detection and loss of their fighters in the battlefield.
- The ability to recruit and deploy both local and foreign fighters based on their specialized skills and experience they bring to the organization, melt and blend into civilian populations, make and use improvised explosive devices (IEDs).
- Adept skills in use social media as the means of communication to propagate propaganda, disseminate information and recruit followers. The militant group media wing has flourished in the recent years. The group has been able to release propaganda videos, infographics of their current and previous operations. Al-Shabaab relies on misinformation and lies, and the group continues to put out false information while making their claims.
- This Al-Qaeda aligned terrorist organization increasingly employs lies, engages in criminal acts, and blends into communities to create fear and intimidate local populations.
- Ability to fundraise from their sympathizers such as charitable foundations, the Gulf States, and the Somali diaspora to finance and sustain the groups’ operations.
- Al-Shabaab’s weakness is a lack of credibility and just cause as demonstrated through its conduct such as; the unjustified terror activities, the whipping of women and public executions, forced marriages between Somali women and foreign fighters, and a lack of support from the people whom are exploited through forced zakat collections.
Insights & Conclusion
There is a need for AMISOM and partners in Somalia to exploit this Al-Shabaab’s weakness in order to win the war against the Islamists militants.
Security and Intelligence assets in the East African region faces a huge and challenging task ahead citing the persistent, steady jihadist’s activities. The increased enemy activity will subsequently and adversely affect individual country’s security and stability. It is primary goals that security and intelligence assets capitalize heavily on countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them besides extending foothold in other areas.
Strategic Intelligence (S.I) continue to track and monitor the Islamist militant’s activity in the East Africa regions and warns of consistent militant’s increased activity. The militant’s intentions to strike on hard targets (security forces) in Somalia and in Kenya remains the militant’s ultimate goal. Joint CT and COIN actors should not relent on mounting concerted military pressuring on the Islamists groups in an effort to guard counter-terrorism gains so far made in the region.
