In Summary: Tracking and Monitoring Al-Shabaab’s Activity in East Africa in the Month of June 2020.
The Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Shabaab continues to mount attacks in East Africa region. The Islamist militant group notably has especially targeted Somalia and Kenya in those attacks at a time the countries are battling with global Covid-19 pandemic.
Apart from demonstrating its capability to conduct attacks, adapt and weather convectional military operations, Al-Shabaab militant group has morphed in both its strategy and tactical capabilities to either match or outmatch military assets and sociopolitical pressure.
In the month of June, the Islamist Al-Shabaab militant group has claimed at least 73 attacks in Somalia and four others in Kenya, totaling to 77 attacks in both East African countries. The recorded terror events suggest of increased militant’s activity as compared to the month of May where 57 attacks were recorded in Somalia.
It is notable that Al-Shabaab controls about a fifth of Somalia territory, with its main areas of operation being recorded in central and southern Somalia. Out of these recorded attacks, Al-Shabaab has conducted at least 16 attacks in the capital Mogadishu. These attacks have notably been low-scale and hardly have they captured headlines.
However, one attack could have made headlines after Al-Shabaab militants fired mortar shells at a sports stadium in the Somali capital Mogadishu’s Wardheegle district on June 30. The newly opened Mogadishu Stadium formerly served as AMISOM’s military base. Al-Shabaab claimed targeting Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed Farmaajo’s motorcade on the same day. President Farmaajo had visited the stadium’s opening ceremony prior to the attack.
Its notable, Al-Shabaab capability to conduct spectacular attacks, such as car bombs, RCIEDs and suicide missions in the capital have significantly diminished. In the capital, Al-Shabaab has concentrated on targeting assassinations and low-key assaults.
In southern Somalia, Lower Shabelle has witnessed the largest number of attacks in theater. Al-Shabaab has claimed at least 16 attacks from across the localities of Lower Shabelle. In this region the Islamist militants have been favored by the terrain and vegetation thus, the group has been targeting security forces by planting IEDs, landmines on roads majorly used by the troops. The militants also have increased ambush attacks.
Southern Somalia which covers Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba and Middle Juba have witnessed increased militant activity. The militants have claimed at least 41 attacks in these regions of southern Somalia. However, assessment reports by security experts at Strategic Intelligence (S.I) have shown Al-Shabab’s territorial control is fluid. Al-Shabaab militant group typically leaves an area ahead of many offensives targeting their bases and later comes back and recaptures the same territories. Additionally, Somali security forces have also been unable to maintain control of these territories, bringing into question of SNA preparedness to take over the mantle of Somalia’s security in the event foreign troops exits.
Al-Shabaab has also increased activity in central regions of Somalia including Hiran, Galgadud and Mudug regions. In these regions, Al-Shabaab has perfected guerilla ambushes on AMISOM troops. Ethiopian troops including a non-AMISOM contingent have been a constant target of Al-Shabaab. The Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab has mounted attacks on military bases belonging to SNA and Djiboutian troops in Beledweyne town.
Beledweyne, a city in central Somalia has witnessed increased militant’s activity. It is strategically located in the Beledweyne District and it is the capital of the Hiran province. The town is situated in the Shebelle Valley near the Ethiopia border, some 210 miles north of Mogadishu. Beledweyne is divided by the Shebelle River into eastern and western sections.
Counterterrorism Interventions Mounting Pressure
In the month of June, notable counterterrorism operations in Somalia have mounted pressure on the Al-Shabaab, limiting the group’s movements and ability to conduct large-scale attacks.
AMISOM troops continue to support the Federal Government’s forces in degrading Al-Shabaab and the militant group is facing pressure from Somali Special Forces (Danab) supported by allied troops in Middle Juba region of Somalia.
CT-Operations in southern region of Somalia recently saw a senior Al-Shabaab commander from Nepal in charge of training being killed after Danab forces swept areas of Buurgaduud, Waabo, Salagle and Sakoow. The name of the senior Al-Shabaab commander killed was identified as Ashraf Azmi Abu Hamdan (Military Intelligence Sources).
In another joint raid, at least six Al-Shabaab operatives were killed, and four villages liberated in Lower Juba. Corresponding local reports indicate that, liberated villages included Hawaljiri, Bernasey, yaq-Bishaar and Osbo and several fighters killed in the operation. Also, Somali National Army (SNA) supported by AMISOM forces killed Al-Shabaab militants near Afmadow town in southwestern Somalia’s Lower Jubba region on June 15.
The mop-up military operations follow increased militant activity in southern regions of Somalia which include; Gedo, Lower Shabelle, Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions where the militant group has increased assaults on SNA and allied troops assets in these regions persistently.
In yet operation, joint troops drawn from Somali army and AMISOM’s Djiboutian troops successfully recaptured Luqa Jelow location, near Beledweyne town from the extremist Al-Shabaab following a security operation. On this note, the Al-Qaeda aligned militants possibly will go back on the drawing board on how to go about their operations in these regions.
Also, SNA forces repelled an Al-Shabaab attack on a SNA base near Beledweyne town in central Somalia’s Hiran region on June 29. SNA and Djiboutian African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces killed seven Al-Shabaab militants near Beledweyne town in mid-June.
SNA-backed Galmudug State security forces killed an al Shabaab improvised explosive device (IED) expert in Galkayo in central Somalia’s Mudug region on June 6 and on June 7, SNA raided an Al-Shabaab base near Abal town in southwestern Somalia’s Bakool region killing at least 37 militants, according to an SNA commander and local sources.
Assessment/Observation
The group’s attacks trend-line indicate that the Islamist militant group is carrying multiple attacks in a day. In the month of June, the group was conducting an average of at least two to three attacks daily across Somalia targeting SNA troops and AMISOM troops. Its notable, Al-Shabaab claimed at least 18 attacks on SNA and 18 attacks on AMISOM troops from across the Somali regions.
IEDs, landmines and roadside bombs remains the militant’s attacks types. However, ambushes and use of mortar are increasing in on military bases. Assassinations have also been witnessed on targeted local government officials especially in the capital Mogadishu. A number of targeting shootings, amputations and executions also witnessed on individuals mostly charged at the Al-Shabaab’s courts, (Those accused of stealing, rape and spying for security assets).
The Somali extremists, concentrated it attacks on Somali security forces, their bases, AMISOM FOBs and convoys in a number of theaters in Lower Juba, Lower Shabelle, Middle Shabelle, Lower Shabelle, Gedo, Bay and Hiran, regions of Somalia. There has been a spike in number of executions and targeted assassinations in Mogadishu and its environs and also in Galgadud regions of Somalia.
This trend where Al-Shabaab has increased activity of FOBs and troop’s convoys is worrisome as it could easily excite the group’s cells not only in Somalia but also those operating along northeastern and coastal prefectures of Kenya. What is more worrying is that the resurgence may possibly activate fanatical grassroots jihadists who are not only ideologically inspired but with medium militant capabilities such as those operating in the vast Boni forest, Lamu county, Kenya.
Force Investigation Teams (FITs) earlier this week reported of increased Al-Shabaab movements close to proximities of Kenya-Somalia border. Increased presence near the Kenya border with Somalia might have been caused by the factor that Somalia and northeastern prefectures of Kenya are experiencing dry weather and as such militants have been sighted in areas with water points. Its an observation that in the coming days, Al-Shabaab possibly with establish makeshift camps proximal to water points, a wake-up call to CT-actors to mapped these areas accordingly.
Also, Al-Shabaab claimed notable attacks on U.S and SNA operated base in Baledogle in Lower Shabelle and also on a Turkish operated military facility in Mogadishu. Its Al-Shabaab ultimate goals of overrunning military facilities belonging to foreign troops who they term as crusaders denying them their primary objective of topping Mogadishu administration.
As the Somali-based militant group continue to posture and demonstrate its capability to mount attacks across the country and beyond, it’s noteworthy that the Al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab is deploying small units, heavily armed to carry on attacks. The military strategy is aimed at achieving their goal of mounting attacks with casualties and at the same time minimizing casualty risks from their side. Also, smaller units are able to get to their target’s locations without much detection or suspicion from security assets.
Security and Intelligence assets in the East African region faces a huge and challenging task ahead citing the persistent, steady jihadist’s activities. The increased enemy activity will subsequently and adversely affect individual country’s security and stability. It is primary security and intelligence services to capitalize heavily in countering the return of violent extremism and terrorism to ensure the terror groups do not outbid them.
To elaborate its successes, the group continue to keep track of its attacks by publishing and spreading of infographics photos and videos of notable raids with casualties in their pro-websites and media. Al-Shabaab has been able to maintain this modern psychological warfare strategy aimed at demoralizing military assets fighting them in region. Besides, the strategy which is mainly run by group’s propaganda wing is also aimed at boosting the morale for group’s foot soldiers and attracting potential jihadists into their fold. To counter this gain, counterterrorism assets need to come with new strategies such as targeted distributed denial of services (DDOs) to jihadist websites and other online media channels propagating their agendas.
