Regional Overview: Coronavirus Worsening Already Budding Conflict and Insecurity in Africa

In Summary

• Cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) continue to be reported in almost every country in Africa.
• Most African countries have seen an upsurge in a number of the COVID-19 cases and at the same time continue to record terrorism events.
• The current global pandemic of COVID-19 expected to mount pressure on African countries citing scarce resources to see them effectively combat coronavirus cases and terrorist and other armed groups.

Africa continent continue to struggle with growing spread of the coronavirus and worsening already budding armed conflict and insecurity. Notable, amid the coronavirus crisis, the Islamist militant groups continue exploit the situation by staging attacks in the Sahel region, Somalia and Mozambique. In north Africa, Tunisia and Libya, sporadic incidents of terrorism have also been recorded.

Though a number of African countries had prior experience in countering Ebola pandemic, the crisis cannot be compared to the current novel coronavirus that continues to spread throughout the world, devastating entire nations and regions across the African continent.

The Sahel region, especially Mali and Niger considering their poor infrastructure and lack of proper medical care, citizens expected to face severe difficulties in treating coronavirus patients if the virus spreads from elite circles into all classes of society.

Considering the already existing security crisis in the Sahel and Nigeria, a further concern is that the coronavirus will worsen the ongoing counterinsurgency and counterterrorism efforts.

The Sahel region continue to record major terrorist attacks in the recent weeks. For example, Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in the Sahel, Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), has killed several dozen soldiers in barracks attack in Mali. In northeastern Nigeria, the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) also has killed nearly 100 soldiers in Goniri, Yobe.

ISWAP’s rival group, Jamaat Ahl al-Sunna li-Dawa wal Jihad popularly known as Boko Haram recently claimed to have killed 92 Chadian soldiers in what was recorded as the largest ever attack by the group in Chad.

Counterinsurgency operations by French and regional forces, including from Chad, are now aggressively targeting the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), but the threat of the virus complicates these efforts. United States has already withdrawn it Special Operation troops from several key hotspots in Africa further dealing blow to counterterrorism efforts.

In Central Africa, militants aligned with the Islamic State in Mozambique continue to register successful attacks dominating territory in the gas-rich north of the country.

African countries are known for the porosity of their borders, which makes counterinsurgency challenging. Militaries that are already overstretched in Africa now a number are being involved in coronavirus relief efforts besides enforcing movement restrictions to curb the virus. Consequently, the pandemic has prompted negative economic impact from across African countries.

In East Africa, insecurity fronted by Islamist insurgents continue to be reported; especially in the Horn of Africa nation of Somalia where militants aligned with Al-Qaeda records at least an attack every day. In the month of April so far, nearly 20 attacks have been claimed by the Islamists’ Al-Shabaab from across Somalia regions.

Overall, its notable that the Islamist militants will continue to exploit this current pandemic to stage more attacks and thus counterterrorism assets from individual countries or joint task forces need to come up with urgent measures and strategies to counter them. It is evident, COVID-19 will not only have a heavy burden on health sectors in Africa, but almost certain it will have a negative impact on counterterrorism and counterinsurgency efforts on the continent besides worsening already budding conflict and insecurity.