Unlike war where the metrics of success is body count, terrorism has the potential to shape human history particularly when it puts significant pressure on fault lines. Along the border prefecture with Kenya, the Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia has perfected the art of pressuring fault lines by fully exploiting the ‘Strategy of Outbidding”. This strategy continues to work for the terrorists both tactically and strategically. This fleeting success questions effectiveness of counter terrorism and intelligence experts strategies and worse their understanding of the long-term implications of faulty counter terrorism.
We have seen the terrorists succeed strategically. This means their intended objectives are being achieved despite counter measures: For example, Kenya’s Teachers Service Commission (TSC) has withdrawn teachers from the flashpoint NEP. Even before they are done evacuating these teachers, the terror group has escalated targeting and killing of National Police Reservists (NPR) officers, their families and kin. The terrorist’s mission’s strategic objective is being achieved with them suffering not even a casualty. The terrorists are no mopping up remnants of government influence networks and infrastructure. What we will see if this threat is not pragmatically addressed is a lawless NEP where the terrorists can freely recruit fighters, plan and mount attacks, and worse pursue the expansion of their operating areas.
But why the lackluster CT in Kenya?
The problem is not collection of intelligence rather exploitation and response to the intelligence. Effective counter-strategies cannot be designed without first understanding the strategic logic that drives terrorist violence. Terrorism works not simply because it instills fear in target populations, but because it causes governments and individuals to respond in ways that aid the terrorists’ cause. We must understand the ultimate goals of terrorists are primarily regime change, territorial change, policy change, social control, and status quo maintenance. This understanding will allow construction of robust counter strategies.
The country seems too ‘cost tolerant”, a weakness often exploited by terrorists to keep pressure on the fault lines. Kenya’s policy is to absorb heavier costs and hold out longer to reimage itself as a less inviting target despite warnings of continued vulnerability. Evidence abounds that terrorists explicitly consider the prior behavior of states and are encouraged by signs of weakness.
Outbidding the Government of Kenya in NEP
The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen in recent past published videos encouraging an uprising and subsequent annexation of NEP from Kenya. The terror group is following through these threats. Outbidding arises when two key conditions hold: two or more domestic par-ties are competing for leadership of their side, and the general population is uncertain about which of the group’s best represents their interests. NEP plays to Somalia clan politics, often violent and perennial. This is the main fault line, a vulnerability that must be exploited. While the terrorists incentivize clan competition, government has remained hostile. Al-Shabaab’s incentive to signal that they are zealots rather than sellouts include reassuring security and business besides a promise of prosperity in near future. To reassure the targets, terrorists orchestrate violence to signal their commitment to the cause thus balancing out the ‘tempering effect’ of who is in control.
CT Operators in Kenya must understand that, the outbidding strategy, is only tangentially related to the strategic interaction with target areas and that the attacks are entirely about the signal sent to domestic audiences who are uncertain about their governments commitment to security and legitimacy. To outbid terrorist Kenya must provide physical protection to competing groups in case the outbidder (terrorists) turns to intimidation and targeted killing (deployment of more better skilled and armed Counter-Terrorism Police units led or guided by persons who are real experts in CT).
