The Al-Qaeda branch in Somalia, Harakat Shabaab Mujahideen movement (HSM), is sustaining terrorism campaigns against the Federal government of Somalia and that of her immediate neighbor Kenya.
With estimated 5,000 to 7,000 fighters in Somalia, the terror group activities continue to surge despite numerous U.S. airstrikes in Somalia. According to U.S. Command in Africa (AFRICOM), U.S. conducted 63 airstrikes against violent extremist organizations in 2019, an increase from the 47 conducted in 2018, and the 35 conducted in 2017.
U.S. has already conducted multiple airstrikes against the Al-Qaeda aligned Al-Shabaab in Somalia this month, most recently on Jan. 16.
Al-Shabaab may not be at its strongest point, but it’s evident the group certainly continue to morph from a ragtag militia to a formidable insurgency waging attacks across Somalia despite the presence of AMISOM and U.S. forces supporting Somalia’s weak Federal government forces.
In 2011, before a 20,000-strong African Union force intervened, and before the United States ramped up its airstrikes, Al-Shabaab controlled almost every town in southern Somalia and appeared on the verge of taking Mogadishu. The terror goal still remains the same; to chase away the foreign troops in Somalia and eventually clear a way of toppling the Federal government of Somalia besides imposing a strict version of Islamic law.
Al-Shabaab has demonstrated capability of conducting successful attacks even on installations highly fortified. The group has severally attempted to breach into Presidential palace in Mogadishu and other complexes hosting ambassadors in Mogadishu. The group has claimed several attacks; notable attacks among them, on a U.S. military base inside Somalia, Baledogle last year and another one earlier this year on a key military base used by U.S. counterterror forces in in Manda bay, Kenya.
Following the attack in Baledogle, U.S. intensified air bombardments against the group’s targets at a pace of just over one airstrike per week but despite the increased airstrikes the terror remained resilient and subsequently was able to plan, conduct another brazen and successful attack on U.S. forces in its history, killing one soldier and two private contractors and destroying six aircraft at Manda airstrip in Kenya. These two attacks on U.S. camps have been symbolic with the jihadist group releasing a video boasting of storming heavily fortified camps manned by U.S. forces.
The group repeatedly has continued to demonstrate its ability to make powerful explosives and destabilize Somalia’s fledgling government, though Somalia citizens have majorly been the casualties.
Since its inception in 2006, the Al-Shabaab has carried out more than 10,000 attacks in Somalia and several in Kenya as retaliatory for her forces in AMISOM.
According to security experts, Al-Shabaab has adapted and is able to deploy new attack methods in Somalia. The group has penetrated local governments and institutions, has a robust network of informants and operatives, extorts taxes (zakawat) from all Somali citizens and instills fear of assassination in anyone who considers opposing them.
Al-Shabaab’s tactics have shifted slightly. The shift indicates a resilience that more and more airstrikes won’t be able to counter the jihadist group according to security observers.
Instead security pundits say U.S. airstrikes have opened up the U.S. military to scorn from the Somali public which is feeling the brunt of Al-Shabaab’s attacks and which at times have suffered from these airstrikes as collateral.
In Kenya, the terror group has adopted kinetic warfare to target and destroy Kenyan security forces transport vehicles, BTS communication systems, and border police stations stretched along the border with the federal republic of Somalia. The group has conducted a number of low scale attacks along the border prefectures with Somalia with the assistance of facilitators within Kenya. These facilitators are potential aspirants of Al-Shabaab.
Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, the commander of U.S. forces in Africa, in a statement last week noted that the Al-Qaeda-aligned terrorist network has demonstrated an ability to conduct external attacks previously and will continue to do so unless they are countered where they reside meaning airstrikes won’t be enough to truly counter the influence and dismantle the terror group.
