The night of Saturday the 22nd of June 2019 saw Addis Ababa the Ethiopian capital and Bahir-Dar the capital of Amhara a regional prefecture of the landlocked giant yet restive East African country, experience military and political upheaval in form of a fleeting coup. According to intelligence reports Ethiopian Government blames the coup at Amhara on General Asaminew Tsige, a military General and a former rebel leader of the Amhara rebel outfit Ginbot 7. Jailed for 9 years and pardoned in February 2018, General Asaminew Tsige made unsavory comments about Addis during an Army Special Forces graduation ceremony in Amhara last Tuesday, maybe his coded warning to Ethiopian Government.
The coup was thwarted as per latest intelligence reports. However, the damage caused on the country’s socio-political fabric is catastrophic. The country’s Army casualties of the coup are General Seare Mekonnen, General Gezae Abera, Dr Ambachew Mekonnen, and Ezez Wasie. All were killed in the coordinated coup attempt in the country.
While the coup’s sphere was Amhara, the killing of the Army top General is an indicator of General Asaminew Tsige intentions to destabilize the country, more of a saboteur operation. Killing a country’s army Commander General is often catastrophic, it creates fissures along ethnic, political, and loyalty lines besides rank and file, and this could have been the coup plotters intention.
General Seare Mekonnen Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Army killed was killed in his house in Adis Ababa. However a statement by Prime Minister Abiys office claimed he was killed attempting to stop the coup. General Gezae Abera a Senior ENDF General’s and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmeds strong ally –loyalist was killed in the capital. Dr Ambachew Mekonnen the President of Amhara and his advisor Ezez Wasie were killed in Bahir Dar.
The events in Ethiopia, so far, have captivated the world. The Amhara political elite will react in a specific way, particularly if, Abiy has in the past failed to stick to their political ideology. Historically required consensus among the ruling is all about the political ideology, patronage, and Abiy could have strayed. Beyond the domestic forces shaping the push factors, intelligence point out Addis Ababa’s worry that Saudi Arabia’s, Egypt’s and UAE has been funding and training Amhara Rebels.
Ethiopia Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed since he took power was swift to upset patronage networks and power channels. Such ambitions were bound to invite push-backs from the Ethiopian elite. An extreme view and a shift from mirror imaging could expose Abiy’s ambition to shrink the patronage circle to a group of his closest advisers, largely Oromo’s, something he has denied. To monopolize power Abiy could be a beneficiary of the coup, a new Army General and fleeting changes in both intelligence and military leadership combined with his popularity among Ethiopians and neighboring countries will make him an emperor.
Comments 1